CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #450 on: April 07, 2021, 01:30:03 PM »

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

Quote
A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

She’d probably be the least embarrassed/fascistic Republican the party can put forward
The problem with her is that being a transgender woman is a great way to alienate Republicans and being a Republican is a great way to alienate Democrats.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #451 on: April 07, 2021, 02:34:06 PM »

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

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A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

Buckle up, buckaroos!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #452 on: April 07, 2021, 02:48:56 PM »

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

Quote
A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

She’d probably be the least embarrassed/fascistic Republican the party can put forward
The problem with her is that being a transgender woman is a great way to alienate Republicans and being a Republican is a great way to alienate Democrats.

All I see is a fourth semi-serious GOP'er attempting to enter a field already too divided to allow the party to walk the narrow tightrope to victory.
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Donerail
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« Reply #453 on: April 07, 2021, 03:11:19 PM »

The problem with her is that being a transgender woman is a great way to alienate Republicans and being a Republican is a great way to alienate Democrats.
But the game here is not to win outright, it's to make enough people prefer one of the alternatives to Newsom. If there is a subset of people who would otherwise vote No who will vote Yes/Jenner, that is a good thing for all the other candidates, because the big hurdle is getting the first question under 50%. If that happens, then someone can win with 15% or whatever.
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Skunk
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« Reply #454 on: April 07, 2021, 03:35:08 PM »

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

Quote
A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol
She’d probably be the least embarrassed/fascistic Republican the party can put forward
Fascistic probably not but she would definitely be embarrassing. Jenner is a joke within the queer community for endorsing people like Ted Cruz and caring more about her personal image than speaking out against violations of LGBTQ rights. Not to mention she literally killed a man in a SUV accident. The only people that like her are people who see her as inoffensive and she would definitely face increased scrutiny if she actually got elevated to elected office somehow.
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #455 on: April 07, 2021, 11:16:55 PM »

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

Quote
A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

She’d probably be the least embarrassed/fascistic Republican the party can put forward
The problem with her is that being a transgender woman is a great way to alienate Republicans and being a Republican is a great way to alienate Democrats.

All I see is a fourth semi-serious GOP'er attempting to enter a field already too divided to allow the party to walk the narrow tightrope to victory.
This, though I've got a hunch the House members are gonna try to line behind Faulconer, having gotten that vibe from Mike, it won't matter, if dems have only one person running, they'll win
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #456 on: April 07, 2021, 11:30:24 PM »

Been almost a week and still no juicy revelation or Sacramento Democrat entering the race.

A week (Or two) later and still radio silence.

I don't think either are gonna happen.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #457 on: April 07, 2021, 11:41:51 PM »

Seems like the BIG REVELATION was the affair thing. Any Democrat who's smart, especially Villa, is going to hold their fire until closer to the election when we can see if Gavin is touchable or not.
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« Reply #458 on: April 07, 2021, 11:45:28 PM »

Seems like the BIG REVELATION was the affair thing. Any Democrat who's smart, especially Villa, is going to hold their fire until closer to the election when we can see if Gavin is touchable or not.

The only outlet I saw bring up the story was that Cerritos one. And is there a deadline for when replacement candidates can qualify for the recall? I guess it depends when the recall qualifies, but doesn't it have to be voted on in like 120 days?
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #459 on: April 08, 2021, 03:13:04 AM »

Seems like the BIG REVELATION was the affair thing. Any Democrat who's smart, especially Villa, is going to hold their fire until closer to the election when we can see if Gavin is touchable or not.

The only outlet I saw bring up the story was that Cerritos one. And is there a deadline for when replacement candidates can qualify for the recall? I guess it depends when the recall qualifies, but doesn't it have to be voted on in like 120 days?

Basically what I gather is that somewhere in the grand Sacramento game of telephone, someone misinterpreted “Los Cerritos Times” or whatever as something slightly different, which wasn’t an actual outlet but also wasn’t debunkable as a hack outlet. And this led to the rumor mill spinning out of control.

No idea when people have to qualify for the recall and I’m too tired to look it up
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Sestak
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« Reply #460 on: April 08, 2021, 03:49:38 AM »

south dakota mayor kevin faulconer
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #461 on: April 09, 2021, 05:58:46 PM »

Seems like the BIG REVELATION was the affair thing. Any Democrat who's smart, especially Villa, is going to hold their fire until closer to the election when we can see if Gavin is touchable or not.

The only outlet I saw bring up the story was that Cerritos one. And is there a deadline for when replacement candidates can qualify for the recall? I guess it depends when the recall qualifies, but doesn't it have to be voted on in like 120 days?

Basically what I gather is that somewhere in the grand Sacramento game of telephone, someone misinterpreted “Los Cerritos Times” or whatever as something slightly different, which wasn’t an actual outlet but also wasn’t debunkable as a hack outlet. And this led to the rumor mill spinning out of control.

No idea when people have to qualify for the recall and I’m too tired to look it up

Yeah, I have no idea either. Not holding my breath at this point in regards to the potential scandal.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #462 on: April 10, 2021, 04:49:21 AM »

Feels like this thread is on life support until the recall verification (+ "Here we go" & "It's on" posts).

And even after that, I feel this is gonna be a very uneventful recall unless COVID recovery goes down the toilet in the next 2 months.
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« Reply #463 on: April 10, 2021, 12:17:30 PM »

Feels like this thread is on life support until the recall verification (+ "Here we go" & "It's on" posts).

And even after that, I feel this is gonna be a very uneventful recall unless COVID recovery goes down the toilet in the next 2 months.

B-b-b-but what's going to happen to all the cons who blew their loads fantasizing about Gavin Mussolini being recalled for personally going around strangling small business owners with reusable plastic bags?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #464 on: April 10, 2021, 12:35:16 PM »

Feels like this thread is on life support until the recall verification (+ "Here we go" & "It's on" posts).

And even after that, I feel this is gonna be a very uneventful recall unless COVID recovery goes down the toilet in the next 2 months.

Yeah, things are on track for a decent recovery imo. Covid rates are low and vaccination rates are going nowhere but up.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #465 on: April 15, 2021, 02:59:07 PM »

Monday is the last day of certification and they're at around 1.2 million signatures out of 1.49 million needed. So any day now (Though we've known for months now).


For a blast from the past, Mary Carey & Angelyne announced their replacement campaigns:

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-billboard-icon-angelyne-former-porn-star-mary-carey-say-theyll-run-to-replace-newsom-if-recall-qualifies/
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #466 on: April 16, 2021, 11:22:16 PM »

I think I'm gonna be a No on Recall, Yes on Angelyne voter
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #467 on: April 17, 2021, 02:16:16 AM »

Recall is a total waste of money, this is Pelosi home turf
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #468 on: April 19, 2021, 11:02:38 PM »

This isn't necessarily apropos of anything, but I thought I'd share my thoughts on the situation as it stands.

The difference between Gavin Newsom and Gray Davis is obviously that Newsom is popular and Davis wasn't, but beyond that there's a big difference between the two in their relationships to the Democratic Party. Davis was boned when Bustamante entered the race, but that was possible because his position in the party wasn't secure; in particular, he wasn't close with the Willie Brown machine. Newsom, by contrast, is the Willie Brown machine. 45% of California voters are registered Democrats, and Gavin Newsom owns the Democratic Party. He's not going to face any opposition on that front.

That said, even if the recall effort had gotten help from left opposition, it would be boned by timing. Six months ago, if you squinted really hard, you could maybe see a situation where the pandemic got worse and Newsom was facing real opposition to his handling from both ends of the spectrum. Now vaccinations are proceeding at a rapid pace and Newsom has announced that the color-coded tiers for counties will be gone in June and there's a general sense (justified or not) that California has done really well over the course of the pandemic. The French Laundry incident isn't the sort of thing that voters care about if they approve of the government's record. Newsom won 62% in 2018 and it's entirely reasonable to think that No on recall will get 60% this year.

Kevin Faulconer's issue that he keeps coming back to is that schools should be open, but the issue is that schools are already opening, and whenever the election happens remote schooling is likely to be a thing of the past. More generally the issue is that nobody cares. In one sense the setup of the recall election is appealing for a Republican candidate; since the election is quite literally a referendum on Newsom, voters are thinking about Newsom and not whether they're willing to vote for a Republican. Unfortunately for Faulconer, in order for that to work he has to at least get past the other recall candidates, and it's not clear whether anyone outside San Diego has even heard of him. John Cox, who lost by a massive margin in 2018, is not seen by anyone as a credible future governor, but his presence certainly poses difficulty for Faulconer in getting attention and votes. The likes of Caitlyn Jenner are worse for him; if the story is whether Caitlyn Jenner can be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger, nobody is going to notice that Kevin Faulconer is trying to be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger.

In one sense it doesn't matter since this seems right now like an unwinnable race, but a poor performance for Faulconer this year would make it difficult for him to present himself as a credible candidate for 2022. California Republicans are perpetually in trouble (hence their reliance on self-funders), and having two gubernatorial elections in two years will certainly stretch them thin. If Republicans are all focused on this year, it's hard to say who'll be left for next year. My dark horse prediction is that the 2022 general election will pit Gavin Newsom against Chamath Palihapitiya.
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Canis
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« Reply #469 on: April 21, 2021, 03:16:32 PM »

Monday is the last day of certification and they're at around 1.2 million signatures out of 1.49 million needed. So any day now (Though we've known for months now).


For a blast from the past, Mary Carey & Angelyne announced their replacement campaigns:

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-billboard-icon-angelyne-former-porn-star-mary-carey-say-theyll-run-to-replace-newsom-if-recall-qualifies/
A little strange that we've heard nothing yet I mean its obvious it'll qualify but shouldn't we know by now? Also any idea on who the dems will run in the race? the only name I've really heard been floated is Villa
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #470 on: April 21, 2021, 08:06:20 PM »

Monday is the last day of certification and they're at around 1.2 million signatures out of 1.49 million needed. So any day now (Though we've known for months now).


For a blast from the past, Mary Carey & Angelyne announced their replacement campaigns:

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-billboard-icon-angelyne-former-porn-star-mary-carey-say-theyll-run-to-replace-newsom-if-recall-qualifies/
A little strange that we've heard nothing yet I mean its obvious it'll qualify but shouldn't we know by now? Also any idea on who the dems will run in the race? the only name I've really heard been floated is Villa

I kinda misled a bit in my post. Last Monday was the last day for counties to deliver signatures to the Secretary of State. Now, the Secretary of State has until next Thursday to report the totals.

And there were rumors a page or two back about two SoCal Assemblymen dipping their toes in the race, but that seemed to die as quickly as it took the rumor to emerge.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #471 on: April 21, 2021, 08:55:18 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2021, 11:03:48 PM by Monstro Believes DeSantis is more Overrated than Haley »

That said, even if the recall effort had gotten help from left opposition, it would be boned by timing. Six months ago, if you squinted really hard, you could maybe see a situation where the pandemic got worse and Newsom was facing real opposition to his handling from both ends of the spectrum. Now vaccinations are proceeding at a rapid pace and Newsom has announced that the color-coded tiers for counties will be gone in June and there's a general sense (justified or not) that California has done really well over the course of the pandemic. The French Laundry incident isn't the sort of thing that voters care about if they approve of the government's record. Newsom won 62% in 2018 and it's entirely reasonable to think that No on recall will get 60% this year.

Kevin Faulconer's issue that he keeps coming back to is that schools should be open, but the issue is that schools are already opening, and whenever the election happens remote schooling is likely to be a thing of the past. More generally the issue is that nobody cares. In one sense the setup of the recall election is appealing for a Republican candidate; since the election is quite literally a referendum on Newsom, voters are thinking about Newsom and not whether they're willing to vote for a Republican. Unfortunately for Faulconer, in order for that to work he has to at least get past the other recall candidates, and it's not clear whether anyone outside San Diego has even heard of him. John Cox, who lost by a massive margin in 2018, is not seen by anyone as a credible future governor, but his presence certainly poses difficulty for Faulconer in getting attention and votes. The likes of Caitlyn Jenner are worse for him; if the story is whether Caitlyn Jenner can be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger, nobody is going to notice that Kevin Faulconer is trying to be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger.

In one sense it doesn't matter since this seems right now like an unwinnable race, but a poor performance for Faulconer this year would make it difficult for him to present himself as a credible candidate for 2022. California Republicans are perpetually in trouble (hence their reliance on self-funders), and having two gubernatorial elections in two years will certainly stretch them thin. If Republicans are all focused on this year, it's hard to say who'll be left for next year. My dark horse prediction is that the 2022 general election will pit Gavin Newsom against Chamath Palihapitiya.

Agreed with all of this, particularly the bolded. The only thing different from any other anti-Newsom/Democrat campaign is the French Laundry incident. And I've damn near forgot that it's 6 months old & it'll be 12 months by the time the recall occurs.

Put that to the side and there's not much to the recall campaign. Despite my irritation with the vaccine rollout being slow & easy to game, California has done a great job in the recovery phase. We've had no surge whatsoever in the last month and we now have the lowest case rate in the lower 48. Around 44% of the population has gotten at least 1 dose, which is on the higher end of the country.

By June, the tier system will be gone, most everything should be reopened, schools will be preparing to start the new school year with fully physical learning and indoor events should be occurring with 50% capacity or more.

By the fall, I fully expect the recall to have morphed from an anti-lockdown campaign to a typical CA GOP campaign we've seen over the last decade; High taxes, nanny state, increased homelessness, increased crime, anti-immigration, etc. You know, a lot of the original reasons behind the recall when it started pre-lockdown.

And despite the wishes/desires of a select few here who can't stand Newsom or the problems of California, I expect it to go as successfully as it has for the CA GOP in the last decade. I'm expecting a similar result & map to the 2018 Gubernatorial race. Hell, I'm not so sure OC will support the recall.

Newsom is only as unpopular as he was pre-pandemic, which is still better than the likes of Scott Walker & not even in the same league as Davis or Schwarzenegger's lows. By the time California returns to "normal" and folks start voting on the recall question, I wouldn't be shocked if his approvals only rise by then.

And that's not even thinking about how the CA GOP is gonna work with 2022 in the face of a potentially expensive & humiliating 2021. The Class of '20 congressmembers better hope redistricting works in their favor & the GOP doesn't get locked out of next year's Gubernatorial race (and Senate race, for that matter).
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #472 on: April 21, 2021, 09:23:59 PM »

By the fall, I fully expect the recall to morph from an anti-lockdown campaign to a typical CA GOP campaign we've seen over the last decade; High taxes, nanny state, increased homelessness, increased crime, anti-immigration, etc. You know, a lot of the original reasons behind the recall when it started pre-lockdown.

This is exactly right. Newsom's team is going to spend all its time tying the recall to the Republican Party, and I think consequently you'll keep seeing visuals like this:



There is absolutely not going to be sufficiently unified messaging on the Yes side to drown this out, because this is what the true believers really feel. Unfortunately for the recall it's noxious to most Californians.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #473 on: April 22, 2021, 08:50:51 AM »

Newsom is pretty good in messaging by tying the recall to the CA GOP, which is toxic with a majority of voters in this state. If the recall is more a referendum on a potential GOP governor, it's going to fail badly. It will anyway, but I don't think it will be particularly close. For sure wasted time and money for Faulconer and 2018 losing candidate Cox.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #474 on: April 23, 2021, 08:47:48 AM »

....

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