PA SEN Emerson Fetterman+2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fettermans-lead-shrinks-in-us-senate-race-shapiros-lead-expands-for-governors-seat/

FETTERMAN 45
Oz 43
Someone else 5
Undecided 8

This isn't new TRAFALGAR has it 2 as well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

Fetterman isn't losing ground as I said an R has to have a 5 pt lead in order to stage off our Early vote by mail especially in blue states Vance, Lee, Budd, Johnson, Dixon, Mastriano, Laxalt, SCHMIDT, Lake and Lombardo don't have won because Pat Ryan was down by 8 and won by three that's a 5 point lead for Molinaro


I am a Blk supported we aren't offended by Fetterman or Ryan we are offended by Vance, Oz and Johnson whom blocked Voting Rights
DeSantis and Rubio due to Hurricane IAN, Abbott and McMasters all have one but Stitt doesn't that means an OK sized upsets

That's why R users going bananas over Johnson, Michels, Laxalt lead are going to be very disappointed, 2 pts it's nothing to withstand our Early vote lead and Vance, Budd and Kee don't have one either, I keep saying this over and over

Also in 2010/2014 Rs had a 48/42 pt Lead on GCB it's tied or D +3 on Greenberg, Snyder Corbett and Walker, Sandoval all cracked the blue wall in 2010 the Rs are underdogs in 303 states, because they're not leading by 6, they lead by 6 because voters wanted repeal of OBAMACARE

Likely pickups WI, PA and wave insurance NC, OH and UT for D+2/5 Seats

It's a 303 map with wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

Ngl, this really doesn’t mean that much. There were only a small fraction of voters who switched over, and many of them were in the suburbs (I.e. places Trump did terribly in in 2020 in particular, even more so than 2016) where Oz is supposed to be doing well (like in Chester county).

Fetterman is running more as someone who can win Erie county and NEPA by solid margins. Most of those voters actually stuck with Trump in 2020 so wouldn’t be included in the focus group.

Now whether Fetterman will end up winning many 2x Trump voters in reality is anyone’s guess. But that’s the theory and so the focus group is kinda silly.

It sounds like a double standard but these focus groups are probably higher propensity so Fetterman only getting 50-50 is very concerning.

It's Trump-Biden voters. I would expect there would still be a bunch who will still vote for the GOP.

Early voting is starting now, Fetterman and Shapiro and Kelly are gonna win by 6 and Johnson is gonna lose that itty-bitty 2 pt lead isn't gonna withstand Early voting

It's a 51/44 Sen map PA, GA, NV Lean D and WI, UT, FL, OH and NC as Tossups, if WARNOCK or Abrams or Walker, Peltola or Garza goes to a Runoff in AK or GA or LA it favors D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

The question could be why then. Could Democrats be bad at campaigning, be seen as more change since passing their agenda, or are people just becoming more interested in tax cuts and abortion bans?

Wet Hot Democratic Summer is over.  

Lol Inflation is still 8 percent and there is a war still going on in Ukraine and there is still a Housing crisis and Monkeypox that's why polls have tighten, Bernie says we needed a 3T dollar Inflation act not an itty bitty inflation act but we only have a tied Senate not 52 that's what we are working on I'm 22/24 Filibuster proof secular Trifecta

Warren said the 3 T inflation act not the one passed in Aug will be an investment on Climate change and paid for by Wealth tax, capital gains and inheritance tax increase