PA SEN Emerson Fetterman+2

[UncleSam]

Let the tightening begin.

[HidingCommentary]

Let the tightening begin.

Has it not already begun?

We've gotten 6(?) PA senate polls all with Fetterman leading between +2 to +5 within the last week I think.

[Green Line]

Let the tightening begin.

Has it not already begun?

We've gotten 6(?) PA senate polls all with Fetterman leading between +2 to +5 within the last week I think.

Don’t forget about Mar(x)ist’s +7.  You’re going to trigger somebody if you do.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman is still leading, but PA-SEN has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Oz is consolidating the Republican base and independents are moving his way.

Marist, F&M, and Fox all have Fetterman leading with Independents. This is an outlier. If we're going to push a narrative, let's at least have it based in facts.

Do you ever get tired of cherry picking? It has to be pretty labor intensive after a while.

Wait, what? LMAO - how am I the one cherry picking here? The facts are that nearly every poll we have from the last few weeks has Fetterman *winning* Independents. Cherry-picking would be exactly what Cathrina was doing, insinuating Oz is winning Indies because of one single poll.

[wbrocks67]

Need to strongly remind users here that most people don't tune into politics until around Labor Day (sometimes as a hard personal rule) and that the Fetterman campaign has been a disaster since then. This is a toss-up.

Has it? Seems like Oz has stepped up his game finally but Fetterman hasn't had any huge missteps of note.

I also think the Oz campaign has righted the ship and is doing a bang-up job, but the story of the past few weeks has been Fetterman dodging media and haggling over debates, failing to answer Oz's attacks, and one of his own biggest attacks ("Oz owns multiple properties") blowing up in his face.

This is completely wrong, but okay. The story of the past few weeks has not been about either of those things (debate talk literally fizzled out 2-3 weeks ago when they settled on a date), and if anything, one of the bigger points of the last few weeks is *Oz* failing to answer the attacks against him, particularly the abortion ban, which he keeps dodging.

[wbrocks67]

The question could be why then.

Spending.

This.

The way I see it is that Fetterman is holding his own against the onslaught of GOP attacks (between the ads and Fox's nightly anti-Fetterman rants), Fetterman still able to get at least 45% of the vote in every single poll, while being able to get 47, 48, 50+ in some when people are pushed/3rd party phased out.

Oz has been able to consolidate some of the GOP vote so he's gone from 36-39 to 41-44. However, Dems have also spent mightily against Oz (though GOP moreso against Fetterman), so Oz is moving up but is also getting stuck because it's all kind of equaling out. He's still deeply unpopular, and while GOP is attacking Fett, oz is still getting attacked too, preventing him from breaking out any further.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, he's probably going to blow it.  So much for the Fetterman/Mastriano split.

[President Johnson]

It's one poll and Fetterman is still ahead, but Oz definitely seems to make gains lately. At least Republicans that didn't support him before are now flocking towards him. I still think Fetterman is way more likely to win, though it won't be by the margins suggested by earlier polls. Two points is a plausible outcome.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman is still leading, but PA-SEN has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Oz is consolidating the Republican base and independents are moving his way.

Marist, F&M, and Fox all have Fetterman leading with Independents. This is an outlier. If we're going to push a narrative, let's at least have it based in facts.

Do you ever get tired of cherry picking? It has to be pretty labor intensive after a while.

Wait, what? LMAO - how am I the one cherry picking here? The facts are that nearly every poll we have from the last few weeks has Fetterman *winning* Independents. Cherry-picking would be exactly what Cathrina was doing, insinuating Oz is winning Indies because of one single poll.

Once again, I was not saying that Oz was winning independents; I said he was improving with them. You completely ignored my follow-up post. I also said that the race has been tightening in recent weeks; in other words, it has been a trend, not just one poll, that has led me and others to make the conclusions we have.

[MillennialModerate]

Really wish you could bet on elections

I’d make a killing off the PA race

[kwabbit]

Really wish you could bet on elections

I’d make a killing off the PA race

Is that not what Predict it is?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Really wish you could bet on elections

I’d make a killing off the PA race

You can, there are a bunch of different markets for it

[MillennialModerate]

Really wish you could bet on elections

I’d make a killing off the PA race

You can, there are a bunch of different markets for it

Where ?!

[kwabbit]

Really wish you could bet on elections

I’d make a killing off the PA race

You can, there are a bunch of different markets for it

Where ?!

https://www.predictit.org/

Have fun. Turn your doomerism into profits. The bloomers might never admit they're wrong, but at least you can enjoy being right and some money too.

[Person Man]

If The Ass wins, I will call all vegetable trays crudités until the end of time. Unlike SB, I won’t break my promise.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

Fetterman isn't losing ground as I said an R has to have a 5 pt lead in order to stage off our Early vote by mail especially in blue states Vance, Lee, Budd, Johnson, Dixon, Mastriano, Laxalt, SCHMIDT, Lake and Lombardo don't have won because Pat Ryan was down by 8 and won by three that's a 5 point lead for Molinaro


I am a Blk supported we aren't offended by Fetterman or Ryan we are offended by Vance, Oz and Johnson whom blocked Voting Rights
DeSantis and Rubio due to Hurricane IAN, Abbott and McMasters all have one but Stitt doesn't that means an OK sized upsets

That's why R users going bananas over Johnson, Michels, Laxalt lead are going to be very disappointed, 2 pts it's nothing to withstand our Early vote lead and Vance, Budd and Kee don't have one either, I keep saying this over and over

Also in 2010/2014 Rs had a 48/42 pt Lead on GCB it's tied or D +3 on Greenberg, Snyder Corbett and Walker, Sandoval all cracked the blue wall in 2010 the Rs are underdogs in 303 states, because they're not leading by 6, they lead by 6 because voters wanted repeal of OBAMACARE

Likely pickups WI, PA and wave insurance NC, OH and UT for D+2/5 Seats

It's a 303 map with wave insurance

[politicallefty]

Anyone want to take a bet that Trafalgar won't be out with a poll in a matter of days showing Oz up by 2-4 points?

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

Ngl, this really doesn’t mean that much. There were only a small fraction of voters who switched over, and many of them were in the suburbs (I.e. places Trump did terribly in in 2020 in particular, even more so than 2016) where Oz is supposed to be doing well (like in Chester county).

Fetterman is running more as someone who can win Erie county and NEPA by solid margins. Most of those voters actually stuck with Trump in 2020 so wouldn’t be included in the focus group.

Now whether Fetterman will end up winning many 2x Trump voters in reality is anyone’s guess. But that’s the theory and so the focus group is kinda silly.

[MillennialModerate]

Really wish you could bet on elections

I’d make a killing off the PA race

You can, there are a bunch of different markets for it

Where ?!

https://www.predictit.org/

Have fun. Turn your doomerism into profits. The bloomers might never admit they're wrong, but at least you can enjoy being right and some money too.

Thank you. Wish there wasn’t a limit on these things.

Arizona Governor
Pennsylvania Senate
Ohio Senate (which is 100% but is only at .77)
House Control (which is 100% but listed at .78)

(question, what means of getting money? Is it just wired into bank accounts or?)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

Ngl, this really doesn’t mean that much. There were only a small fraction of voters who switched over, and many of them were in the suburbs (I.e. places Trump did terribly in in 2020 in particular, even more so than 2016) where Oz is supposed to be doing well (like in Chester county).

Fetterman is running more as someone who can win Erie county and NEPA by solid margins. Most of those voters actually stuck with Trump in 2020 so wouldn’t be included in the focus group.

Now whether Fetterman will end up winning many 2x Trump voters in reality is anyone’s guess. But that’s the theory and so the focus group is kinda silly.

It sounds like a double standard but these focus groups are probably higher propensity so Fetterman only getting 50-50 is very concerning.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

Ngl, this really doesn’t mean that much. There were only a small fraction of voters who switched over, and many of them were in the suburbs (I.e. places Trump did terribly in in 2020 in particular, even more so than 2016) where Oz is supposed to be doing well (like in Chester county).

Fetterman is running more as someone who can win Erie county and NEPA by solid margins. Most of those voters actually stuck with Trump in 2020 so wouldn’t be included in the focus group.

Now whether Fetterman will end up winning many 2x Trump voters in reality is anyone’s guess. But that’s the theory and so the focus group is kinda silly.

It sounds like a double standard but these focus groups are probably higher propensity so Fetterman only getting 50-50 is very concerning.

It's Trump-Biden voters. I would expect there would still be a bunch who will still vote for the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

Ngl, this really doesn’t mean that much. There were only a small fraction of voters who switched over, and many of them were in the suburbs (I.e. places Trump did terribly in in 2020 in particular, even more so than 2016) where Oz is supposed to be doing well (like in Chester county).

Fetterman is running more as someone who can win Erie county and NEPA by solid margins. Most of those voters actually stuck with Trump in 2020 so wouldn’t be included in the focus group.

Now whether Fetterman will end up winning many 2x Trump voters in reality is anyone’s guess. But that’s the theory and so the focus group is kinda silly.

It sounds like a double standard but these focus groups are probably higher propensity so Fetterman only getting 50-50 is very concerning.

It's Trump-Biden voters. I would expect there would still be a bunch who will still vote for the GOP.

Early voting is starting now, Fetterman and Shapiro and Kelly are gonna win by 6 and Johnson is gonna lose that itty-bitty 2 pt lead isn't gonna withstand Early voting

It's a 51/44 Sen map PA, GA, NV Lean D and WI, UT, FL, OH and NC as Tossups, if WARNOCK or Abrams or Walker, Peltola or Garza goes to a Runoff in AK or GA or LA it favors D

[Del Tachi]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

The question could be why then. Could Democrats be bad at campaigning, be seen as more change since passing their agenda, or are people just becoming more interested in tax cuts and abortion bans?

Wet Hot Democratic Summer is over. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Strongly suspect this will become part of a national trend, and it’s also why I haven’t written off Masters yet.

The question could be why then. Could Democrats be bad at campaigning, be seen as more change since passing their agenda, or are people just becoming more interested in tax cuts and abortion bans?

Wet Hot Democratic Summer is over.  

Lol Inflation is still 8 percent and there is a war still going on in Ukraine and there is still a Housing crisis and Monkeypox that's why polls have tighten, Bernie says we needed a 3T dollar Inflation act not an itty bitty inflation act but we only have a tied Senate not 52 that's what we are working on I'm 22/24 Filibuster proof secular Trifecta

Warren said the 3 T inflation act not the one passed in Aug will be an investment on Climate change and paid for by Wealth tax, capital gains and inheritance tax increase