Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[chalmetteowl]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we never see another Democrat Governor of Louisiana in this century. JBE was probably the last of his kind to be able to win over the requisite rural support to win. You can’t win Louisiana based on doing well in suburbs like you can in other states.

JBE won both of his terms in part because he won in Jefferson and St. Bernard Parishes

[Duke of York]

It's a tossup now I don't care what ratings have it , I always had LA Gov Lean D

Why do you rank it lean D?

[smoltchanov]

Postfiling notes:

If i counted correctly - only 11 state Senate and 22 state House seats will have candidates from both major parties(20 Senate seats are almost guaranteed to go Republican as well as 55 seats in House, 8 state Senate seats and 28 in House - Democratic). A very low level of competition, as expected, expecially given the fact, that most of the remaining seats are not especially competitive too.

Democrats almost hit the bottom in this state: i see only 1 presently Democratic state Senate seat they are likely to lose (Smith's SD19) and 1 potentially very competitive Democratic seat in House (105th). But they are equally unlikely to win more then 1-2 seats from Republicans too (if any).

Vast majority of Democratic candidates is Black, even greater majority of Republican - white, so - parties really polarized by race.

In general - October election will be interesting because of de facto "primaries" in many "reliable" districts, not because of competitions between parties. November - less so. If more then 5 districts will have not so predictable Democratic-Republican outcomes - i will be really surprised..

P.S. The idea for one of my topics in "Political geography" (that US,  essentially, consists of 2 non-contiguous 1-party states, welded together, and, simultaneously, bitterly hating each other) came after studying candidates lists like this in Louisiana))))

P.S. 2 Again, if i counted correctly - 11 state Senate seats (9R, 2D) and 32 state House seats (24R, 7D, 1I) are open. Rather considerable number, but, as stated above, the number of competitive seats is minimal, and besides them there will be very few "surprises" in elections (may be - only some in "primaries")))))

P.S. 3 Correlation between Trump/Biden victories in districts and Republican/Democratic representation of these districts is not simply high, but - extremely high. Again, if i counted correctly - 28 of 39 state Senate districts were won by Trump, 11 - by Biden, and i expect 28-11 ratio in state Senate after election (now - 27-12 because of Smith's SD19). Almost the same in House, where 60th and 105th are the only (as i see) districts, which went for Trump and elected Democrats last time... (stricktly speaking - 18th, 19th and 75th - too, but all these former Democrats - switched), and 92th (now represented by relatively moderate republican Stagni) - the only one, which went for Biden and elected Republican (but Democrats, just as Republicans in 60th, don't run anyone here)

P.S. 4 Nothing really interesting on statewide level - all statewide posts will rather easily go Republican, unless an extremely big scandal happens somewhere...

P. S. 5 Afrer filnalization of filing lists situation became evem more lopsided: State Senate - 20 "pure Republican" didtricts, 2 - R+I, 9 - D, and only 8 where both major parties are represented (1 of them includes Indie too), and, most likely, the same will be in State House. So - even less districts to watch.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Early voting has started on Saturday.

There was no early voting on Sunday, but it continued yesterday.

On Saturday, about 82.000 votes were cast (including already-returned mail ballots).

This guy mentions that the first day was slightly more Democratic and Black than the first day of early voting in 2019:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1708456539348926543

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Early voting numbers can be found here (updated daily):

https://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/Pages/EarlyVotingStatisticsStatewide.aspx

Early voting in Louisiana will continue until Saturday.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's going to a Runoff

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The early vote in Lousiana is more Republican than in 2019 at the same time:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1709532186385195312

[TML]

The early vote in Lousiana is more Republican than in 2019 at the same time:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1709532186385195312

Republicans have also narrowed the partisan gap among registered voters in LA during this time period (not to mention, there are many people in the state who are officially registered as Democrats but who have been voting Republican in recent election cycles, especially for federal races at or near the top of the ticket).

[wbrocks67]

Yeah I mean given the GOP severely closing the gap with Dem in registration, those #s aren't that bad at all imo for Dems.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not surprised by this, considering there's no popular Democratic incumbent.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The early vote (with just 1 day left) is now heavily Republican (R+7).

It was D+2 at this point in 2019.

About 300.000 votes have been cast early so far (or returned), less than at the same point in 2019.

[Dave Hedgehog]

D+2 was the final margin in 2019 if I remember rightly. R's are clearly favored to win this one when all's said and done, but is there a chance it could end up being a single rather than double-digit margin?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

D+2 was the final margin in 2019 if I remember rightly. R's are clearly favored to win this one when all's said and done, but is there a chance it could end up being a single rather than double-digit margin?

Maybe Democrats wait and vote on election day, or in the runoff. But as you said, R's are clearly favored to win because Shaun Wilson doesn't have the name recognition to beat Jeff Laundry (Wilson needs more TV and Internet ads, because he's only known to 3 in 10 voters).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Early voting ended yesterday and final numbers have been posted (mail ballots are still coming in for another week).

Turnout was 340.000 until yesterday, down by about 10% from the early voting period in 2019.

The early vote was about R +4.5, compared to D +2.5 in 2019.

But it was - somehow - also more Black (26% vs. 25% in 2019), despite being less Democratic.

[Agafin]

Early voting ended yesterday and final numbers have been posted (mail ballots are still coming in for another week).

Turnout was 340.000 until yesterday, down by about 10% from the early voting period in 2019.

The early vote was about R +4.5, compared to D +2.5 in 2019.

But it was - somehow - also more Black (26% vs. 25% in 2019), despite being less Democratic.

Huh? How does that happen? Perhaps the white electorate was much older than in 2019 (and hence more republican)?

[wbrocks67]

Early voting ended yesterday and final numbers have been posted (mail ballots are still coming in for another week).

Turnout was 340.000 until yesterday, down by about 10% from the early voting period in 2019.

The early vote was about R +4.5, compared to D +2.5 in 2019.

But it was - somehow - also more Black (26% vs. 25% in 2019), despite being less Democratic.

Huh? How does that happen? Perhaps the white electorate was much older than in 2019 (and hence more republican)?

I think its just more proof that theres quite a lot of White voters who were Democrats in 2019 but now Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

2023: 345K (71-26 white/black, R+5, 45-40)
2022: 363K (71-26 white/black, R+2, 43.5-41.5)
2019: 374K (72-25 white/black, D+2, 43.5-41.5)

All things considered, these arent bad #s at all for Dems. White/Black share has been consistent since 2019. Like I said above, only big thing here is you can tell that White voters are continuing to change their registration since the W/B stays the same, but R lead continues to increase.

[wbrocks67]

More VBM in, Rs lead down to +3.9 now, versus +5.0 the other day. Looks likely to settle not that far from 2022's early vote (R+2)

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1712089290925109608

[Duke of York]

Im still calling this for Landry despite a runoff being certain.

[wbrocks67]

This article is a mess imo. First of all, JMC is great collecting data but he still is a bit of a hack for the GOP.

Early voter turnout is nearly the same this year as 2019 and 2022. By the end of VBM collection, it will only be down a smidge. Not just that, but the black % share of the vote is essentially exactly the same as both 2019 and 2022.

The article even seems to contradict itself when it says that white voter turnout is actually down *MORE* than black voter turnout.

Also, like I said above - JMC doesn't seem to understand that given the registration shifts in the last 5 years, you would expect Ds to do less well than they did before. The early vote was D+2 in 2019, and its R+3.9 now. But given that registration was decently more D>R in 2019 than it is now, that number seems like it kind of equals out in the end.

https://twitter.com/rjamesfinn/status/1712143182077518008

[Oryxslayer]

I mean at the end of the day it doesn't really matter if the EV resembles 2019. Yeah the White Liberal and African Americans are showing up, but all the JBE Whites who normally vote Republican in federal elections are probably going to vote for one of the Republican's rather than the Democrat. 

[soundchaser]

I mean at the end of the day it doesn't really matter if the EV resembles 2019. Yeah the White Liberal and African Americans are showing up, but all the JBE Whites who normally vote Republican in federal elections are probably going to vote for one of the Republican's rather than the Democrat. 

Right — at the end of the day, Landry is going to win in places like Jefferson Parish, which will pretty much settle things.

[wbrocks67]

2023: 356K (71-26 white/black, R+3.6, 44.4-40.
2022: 363K (71-26 white/black, R+2.0, 43.5-41.5)
2019: 374K (72-25 white black, D+2.0, 43.5-41.5)

Suggests to me that we're pretty much in an environment close to 2022 as of right now.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The Louisiana Governor election is tomorrow, by the way (general election day).

Louisiana votes on a Saturday, for whatever reason (all other states on Tuesday, and in November).

[Benjamin Frank]

Any possibility Shawn Wilson doesn't make the runoff?