pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,839
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« on: September 18, 2021, 11:25:44 AM » |
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Excellent! Margins may be far more important in some densely-populated counties like Allegheny (PA), Wayne (MI), Maricopa (AZ), Fulton (GA), Cuyahoga or Hamilton (OH), Bexar or Harris (TX) and Miami-Dade (FL) than some counties, especially if those other counties are rural. The states closest to the margin (GA, AZ, and WI) were close to these results in 2020. The population of Nevada is of course almost confined to two counties (Clark especially but also Washoe).
The Indiana map of a tie looks much like Indiana in 2008 except that Allen goes D. That's one of the more obvious. It shows how far Indiana is from flipping. On the other hand -- I cannot imagine Orange or San Diego Counties of California going R again for a very long time.
The question may be which state most fits this pattern. Should the state that fits that pattern be Connecticut or Oregon, then the Democratic Party will be in deep trouble that year. On the other side, if the state fitting the pattern proves to be North Dakota or South Carolina, then the Republican Party is in deep trouble.
I want to save that map for "Preliminaries for 2024".
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