2020 Election County Map If Every State Was Tied

[E-Dawg]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=7mci

For each state, I applied a uniform swing to each of their counties matching with the state's margin to give a PVI map for each county compared to the whole state it is in.

[Figueira]

Honestly if I didn't know anything about US politics I'd think this was pretty reasonable. The only state line that's obvious is between the Dakotas and Minnesota.

[beesley]

Honestly if I didn't know anything about US politics I'd think this was pretty reasonable. The only state line that's obvious is between the Dakotas and Minnesota.

Agreed. It helps that some of the most Dem counties in red states are small/average sized, and look large in blue states.

[If my soul was made of stone]

That California map looks like it could've plausibly happened in the mid-aughts if Imperial were more elastic then.

[E-Dawg]

That California map looks like it could've plausibly happened in the mid-aughts if Imperial were more elastic then.

Yeah, it's very close to the 2004 map. The only differences are Mono, Sacramento, San Benito, Imperial, and Lake being GOP instead of DEM.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The South is interesting because in states like MS and SC with large black rural populations, Democrats would need to win about 50% of the counties to actually win the state.

[tanairi8]

If you calculate it out far enough, Red River Louisiana goes to Trump.

[Alcibiades]

It’s weird to see Lake and DuPage voting to the left of Illinois.

[AGA]

I was thinking about doing this, but was too lazy. Well done!

[E-Dawg]

I was thinking about doing this, but was too lazy. Well done!

Thanks, it took a very long time. Hopefully there aren't any mistakes.

[E-Dawg]

If you calculate it out far enough, Red River Louisiana goes to Trump.

Thanks, I put it as a tie because the percentage margin Politico and Wikipedia gave was the exact same as Lousiana as a whole and I did not have the patience to calculate it myself.

[Calthrina950]

This map truly does help demonstrate how few counties Democrats would need to win in each state. Democrats can run up the margins in populous urban and suburban counties, while Republicans have to sweep scores of rural counties just to eke out a win in some states.

[John Dule]

The GOP has to flip over a dozen counties in California just to tie, lol.

[E-Dawg]

I'm pissed that I wasted so much time making this since if I just waited a few months I could have done this so much quicker with the Election Shuffler (facepalms)

[pbrower2a]

Excellent! Margins may be far more important in some densely-populated counties like Allegheny (PA), Wayne (MI), Maricopa (AZ), Fulton (GA), Cuyahoga or Hamilton (OH), Bexar or Harris (TX)  and Miami-Dade (FL) than some counties, especially if those other counties are rural.  The states closest to the margin (GA, AZ, and WI) were close to these results in 2020. The population of Nevada is of course almost confined to two counties (Clark especially but also Washoe).

The Indiana map of a tie looks much like Indiana in 2008 except that Allen goes D. That's one of the more obvious. It shows how far Indiana is from flipping. On the other hand -- I cannot imagine Orange or San Diego Counties of California going R again for a very long time.

The question may be which state most fits this pattern. Should the state that fits that pattern be Connecticut or Oregon, then the Democratic Party will be in deep trouble that year.    On the other side, if the state fitting the pattern proves to be North Dakota or South Carolina, then the Republican Party is in deep trouble.

I want to save that map for "Preliminaries for 2024".

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That East-West divide in South Carolina (minus Myrtle Beach) is really something