European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Schieder (SPÖ) is also concerned that this election could be challenged in court because UK citizens are still allowed to vote in Austria (and elsewhere), despite their Brexit intention.

Obviously, if the UK itself votes in the election ... everything should be fine.

https://orf.at/stories/3118034

[Tender Branson]

Austria will release all results of the election on 11pm, despite polls closing at 5pm already.

That’s because Italy closes their polls at 11pm.

The good thing is: all votes will be counted then already and I don’t have to wait for city, district, state or federal results ...

The bad thing: a boring election evening, because no early trends to project a final result - like usually.

https://orf.at/stories/3118312

Does anyone know if other countries such as Holland (DavidB. ?) or the UK are also embargoeing their results until Sunday, 11pm ?

[Tender Branson]

New polls from 5 countries for the EU election:



+ Spain:

[Tender Branson]

Just 7 parties have officially qualfied for the EU elections in Austria, after the deadline to collect 2.600 signatures or handing in a candidacy with the support of 3 MPs or 1 MEP ended yesterday at 5pm:

(ranked by ballot order)

1 - Österreichische Volkspartei [ÖVP]

2 - Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs [SPÖ]

3 - Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs – Die Freiheitlichen [FPÖ]

4 - Die Grünen – Grüne Alternative [GRÜNE]

5 - NEOS – Das Neue Europa [NEOS]

6 - KPÖ PLUS – European Left, offene Liste [KPÖ]

7 - EUROPA JETZT – Initiative Johannes Voggenhuber [EUROPA]

Despite the fact that the KPÖ is not represented in the Austrian or EU parliament (contrary to JETZT), the KPÖ still managed to hand in their candidacy ahead of JETZT with the Interior Ministry and will appear on the 6th slot on the ballot.

Also: several anti-EU/Auxit parties (in fact 3 of them), failed to collect the 2.600 signatures - which is a good thing for the FPÖ. Remember that in 2004, such a small, meaningless anti-EU party surprisingly got almost 3% of the vote. Votes that would have usually went to the FPÖ.

Other small parties that failed included "Volt", a liberal/progressive pan-European party and the CPÖ, the Christian Party of Austria.

https://www.bmi.gv.at/news.aspx?id=4A527A4C5354336C365A773D

[Tender Branson]

Brexit Party surge.

Unsurprising.

Hopefully Labour and the Tories fall to single digits in this useless election. It's what these incompetent parties deserve, because they were too idiotic to do what the people wanted: leave the EU. Now the people have to vote again and millions of ₤ are spent to administer this ridiculous election.

[Tender Branson]

Lega, AfD, Finns Party, Danish People's Party and Estonian EKRE have now joined EAPN.

Dutch FVD leader for the EP Derk Jan Eppink has ruled out joining EAPN, calling potential cooperation with French Rassemblement National (RN) "a bridge too far" in an interview in Trouw. Eppink assumes RN and Dutch PVV will join EAPN. For FVD, Eppink aims at joining ECR or entering an alliance with Farage's Brexit Party.

So what is the diffrence between UKIP and the Brexit party? Is UKIP going to join the new EAPN? Brexitparty will save EFDD?

Not sure about EFDD, but Brexit = Farage's thing, UKIP = now further right (will probably join EAPN).

The FPÖ has also joined EAPN.

David, do you know if Holland (which votes on Thursday I think) will embargo their results until Sunday and if there will be an exit poll on Thursday this time, or not ?

[Tender Branson]

André Ventura's coalition, now called "Europe Enough", is again struck down by the Constitutional Court.

Third time's the charm. Constitutional Court approves André Ventura's new name for his right-wing coalition. Insted of "Europa Chega", it will be called "Coligação Basta". In English both have the same meaning "Enough Coalition".

Another coalition is still waiting the Court's ruling because of divisions within the MPT, Earth Party. This coalition is called "The Civic Front" and it's composed by MPT, Earth Party and We, the Citizens!, both center to center-right parties. The coalition is headed by former 2016 presidential candidate, Paulo de Morais.

What was the court's reason not to approve the name "Europa Chega" (Europe Enough) ?

Sounds crazy to me that a court would rule against such a name ...

Was the reason political correctness or was it a trademark problem (some other group already having that name) ?

[Tender Branson]

Claudia Gamon and Karin Feldinger, the frontrunner duo for the liberal NEOS, have presented their plans for a common (pink) EU passport for a United States of Europe, with a common EU army and where Austria gives up its everlasting neutrality law (the law is supported by 85% of Austrians):

[Tender Branson]

The 7 candidacies that were submitted to the Interior Ministry will now be checked if they are valid until April 24 (of course they are, because they are the main parties + KPÖ).

Then the ballots can be printed, so it is likely that I will get my postal ballot by early May.

Then the long wait to election night on May 26th, which will be extremely boring in the Austrian case thanks to the stupidity of the UK and Italy, who keep their polls open until 10pm and 11pm.

Why can't they close their polls like a sane country ? 5-8pm ?

So, the results will be counted in secrecy and embargoed until Italy closes at 11pm. No leaks on Twitter (banned), no election-weekend survey/exit poll (banned), no first trends or vote counts for the public (banned).

Italy needs to be nuked.

[Tender Branson]

Pollster OGM will go into the field between April 29 - May 3 for the "Kurier" newspaper.

OGM is Austria's best pollster, so we should get a clear picture on Sunday, May 5, on where things stand and if the Mitterlehner book has hurt the ÖVP or not, or if the far-right extremist Identitarians have hurt the FPÖ or not.

[Tender Branson]

First national poster campaign by the Austrian Greens, who - after their 2017 defeat - are financially almost bankrupt and have only some 800.000 € to spend including grassroots donations (the other parties will invest up to 7 million € each). The posters are not too bad though and are kinda "back to the roots":

"Who the f**k needs peace anyway ? You ? On May 26: Back to the Greens."

"Who the f**k needs climate protection anyway ? You ? On May 26: Back to the Greens."

"Who the f**k needs healthy food anyway ? You ? On May 26: Back to the Greens."

[Tender Branson]

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).

By „early voting“ you mean that postal ballots have been sent to voters ?

As far as I know, there is no early voting in the US sense in Germany ...

[Tender Branson]

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).

By „early voting“ you mean that postal ballots have been sent to voters ?

As far as I know, there is no early voting in the US sense in Germany ...

I picked up a "postal" ballot at the respective district office, made a cross on it, and stuffed it into the "postal" ballot box standing there.

In a strict legal sense that was a postal vote too, although in Germany you have the option to personally retrieve your ballot during office hours and cast your vote with it on location, which is de facto a form of early voting.

Yeah, same like here.

Technically, it is still "postal voting", because you request a "postal ballot" - even though you can fill it out right there and drop it into the box.

I wonder how many people mail it back and how many just fill it out in their municipal office ...

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll (probably the 50th or so already from the same pollster, Research Affairs):



Projected turnout:

47% will definitely vote (+2% compared with 2014). Green- and NEOS-voters are the most motivated to vote. ÖVP-voters are so far least motivated to vote. This could change soon, when Chancellor Kurz starts to campaign, which could drive up overall turnout to 50%+ (= "high" for EU elections).

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Run-auf-EU-Wahl-OeVP-klar-vorn-SPOe-holt-auf-FPOe-Dritte/376697495

[Tender Branson]

Early voting in Germany started this week, so I already cast my ballot yesterday (for the Greens).

By „early voting“ you mean that postal ballots have been sent to voters ?

As far as I know, there is no early voting in the US sense in Germany ...

I picked up a "postal" ballot at the respective district office, made a cross on it, and stuffed it into the "postal" ballot box standing there.

In a strict legal sense that was a postal vote too, although in Germany you have the option to personally retrieve your ballot during office hours and cast your vote with it on location, which is de facto a form of early voting.

Yeah, same like here.

Technically, it is still "postal voting", because you request a "postal ballot" - even though you can fill it out right there and drop it into the box.

I wonder how many people mail it back and how many just fill it out in their municipal office ...

A total of 29% of all ballots were cast via "postal vote" in the 2017 Bundestag election, a significant increase from the 9% we had back in 1990.

Official numbers regarding the share of ballots which are actually mailed in versus the ballots which are filled out on location don't exist.

An analysis of voting behavior in the 2002 Bundestag election (at that point 18% of all voters used a postal ballot one way or the other) came to the conclusion that in 42% of these cases the postal ballot was used as a form of early voting on location at the respective municipal office. I would expect that this share has increased since then, especially since the legal requirement to provide a formal reason why you have to vote prior to election day in order to obtain a postal ballot was abolished in 2008.

Here, only 7% of voters requested a postal ballot for the EU elections in 2014 and 14% for the federal election in 2017.

But I would assume that like in Germany, many are just going to their municipal office to fill it out and already cast the ballot there. It's also the better way to do so, because it would remove the uncertainty of the postal system (not that it is bad in Austria, but some postal ballots always get lost in the mail).

[Tender Branson]

The FN (or RN) has officially joined Salvini's EAPN group of far-right-wingers.

[Tender Branson]

Record-high for the Lega in Italy:



Almost 2x the support of the FPÖ and they are usually considered one of the most successful far-right parties in Europe ...

[Tender Branson]

When is deadline for all states?

What do you mean by "deadline" ?

PS: there are member countries, not states.

[Tender Branson]

My bad. When all countries must introduce list of candidates?

I'm not quite sure, but i believe it's different in each country. For example, the deadline in Portugal was April 15, while in Austria, following Tender's posts, the deadline was April 13, i assume.

It was Friday, April 12th @ 5pm for Austria.

Not sure about other countries, it definitely varies. For Germany probably a long time ago, because postal ballots were already sent to voters who requested them.

[Tender Branson]

I know that every country has different deadline. But, I am interested, when I can see all candidates.
Thanks

I guess you have to check for each country separately.

I'm not aware of a website which tracks candidates from all 28 countries ...

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ out with their first, absurd, poster campaign (they actually use the English word „vote“ on their nationalist posters !):

[Tender Branson]

Portugal: Campaign budget for Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition is creating some suspicions:

Parties have sent to the Constitutional Court their campaign budget estimates: what they will spend, and what they project to receive in donations and public money. The PS will spend 1,2 million euros, followed by the 890,000 euros of the PSD. CDU will spend 850,000 euros, BE 576,000 euros, CDS 312,000 euros. PAN 78,000 euros and the Alliance 350,000 euros. But, it's André Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition that is drawing attentions. His coalition expects to spend 500,000 euros, in which 400,000 euros will be donations.

The media started to suggest that it could be outside money, like from Steve Bannon. But, Ventura denies any foreign donations, and says he believes in the tide his movement is creating and that he will get the money.

That's not a lot. Here, even the small parties are spending 500.000 € for the campaign and the big parties ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ are allowed to spend up to 7 million € each.

Anyway, the Interior Ministry will announce the qualified parties today after having checked signatures and candidacies for validity. Then the ballots will be printed and they will be sent to voters starting next week.

[Tender Branson]

Official results page for Austria (results will be posted on May 26, after 11pm, when Italy is the last country to close their polls. Austria's polls close at 5pm).

http://wahl19.bmi.gv.at

[Tender Branson]

Here is the Austrian ballot (on the right side you can write-in a name or list number of a candidate for preference votes):

[Tender Branson]

After SPÖ and FPÖ, the ÖVP is now also out with their first poster campaign feat. the longtime MEP and frontrunner Othmar Karas and Chancellor Kurz's darling Karoline Edtstadler, currently State Secretary of the Interior and 2nd on the ÖVP's Europe list.

The ÖVP's core message is "experience" (Karas posters) and "excellence" (Edtstadler posters).

"Europe needs professionals."

The backside of the poster reads:

"You have to understand Europe to change it for the better."

"Europe needs excellence."

The backside of the poster reads:

"You have to change Europe to preserve it."

And a neutral one:

"Europe needs Power. We are Europe. Let's make it better. Let's shape Europe."