2022 Senate midterms with a Democratic president (2021-23)

[Skill and Chance]

Reverse 2018.  They net gain 1 or 2 Senate seats but lose the House pretty decisively.  Dems probably pick up at least 2 of PA/GA/NC, but lose NH. 

[ctherainbow]

My whole post was in response to your last sentence, "I don't see Toomey making that up with his incumbency advantage/campaigning skills". Hence why I started off by saying Republicans came out of 2018 far better than 2006 and yet Toomey was able to not only win in 2010 but get reelected as well. Basically you said Toomey isn't going to overcome this disadvantage and I responded by saying he overcame a worse one already.

But Pat Toomey's not a particularly strong Pennsylvania incumbent.  He won by half a point LESS in his re-election campaign, in what was arguably PA Republicans' strongest presidential election cycle showing in nearly two decades.  If you believe that he overcame a stronger challenge in 2010 than in 2016, yet managed to do worse in what should have been an easier cycle for him, I don't see why we wouldn't be worried about his chances going into 2022.

And the entire point of my original post was not "Toomey is such a weak politician that he won't be re-elected", it was "Toomey won re-election with less than half the margin that Ron Johnson did, so I don't see why Wisconsin's seat would flip in the same scenario that Toomey's seat doesn't, especially given that if Toomey sticks to his guns on term limits for the senate like he did as a House member, it would mean he retires and both seats are open."  Hopefully you understand what I was trying to get across now.    

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Kind should beat any generic R in WI

[pops]

President Kamala Harris, Education Sec. Michael Bennet, and AG Richard Blumenthal resign for their new positions, Richard Shelby and Chuck Grassley resign because of age, and Burr already says he ain't running.

The GOP think in a Biden midterm Connor Lamb and Ron Kind cant win; also, Mark Kelly is gonna be successful if the Divided Senate passes gun control

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even in a Harris midterm, Rs wont win CO and NV and NH

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My whole post was in response to your last sentence, "I don't see Toomey making that up with his incumbency advantage/campaigning skills". Hence why I started off by saying Republicans came out of 2018 far better than 2006 and yet Toomey was able to not only win in 2010 but get reelected as well. Basically you said Toomey isn't going to overcome this disadvantage and I responded by saying he overcame a worse one already.

But Pat Toomey's not a particularly strong Pennsylvania incumbent.  He won by half a point LESS in his re-election campaign, in what was arguably PA Republicans' strongest presidential election cycle showing in nearly two decades.  If you believe that he overcame a stronger challenge in 2010 than in 2016, yet managed to do worse in what should have been an easier cycle for him, I don't see why we wouldn't be worried about his chances going into 2022.

And the entire point of my original post was not "Toomey is such a weak politician that he won't be re-elected", it was "Toomey won re-election with less than half the margin that Ron Johnson did, so I don't see why Wisconsin's seat would flip in the same scenario that Toomey's seat doesn't, especially given that if Toomey sticks to his guns on term limits for the senate like he did as a House member, it would mean he retires and both seats are open."  Hopefully you understand what I was trying to get across now.    

I never said I wasn't worried about his chances. Frankly, I find Toomey's performances to be very impressive considering how fiscally conservative he is, he isn't really a good match for the state nor its GOP base even at this point on issues like trade, but he is adapt at zig zagging to the center on social issues like guns.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Even in a Harris midterm, Rs wont win CO and NV and NH

NH and NV are possible depending on turnout variables.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Even in a Harris midterm, Rs wont win CO and NV and NH

NH and NV are possible depending on turnout variables.

I would agree with this. NV probably starts at Lean D depending on who the GOP scrapes up (and judging from the NV GOP's past history, we probably shouldn't expect much). NH starts at tossup or so with someone like Sununu presumably being more willing to run (assuming he holds on in 2020, which isn't a safe assumption). CO is probably likely/safe. There's no one left on the bench capable of running a credible statewide campaign.

[ctherainbow]

I never said I wasn't worried about his chances. Frankly, I find Toomey's performances to be very impressive considering how fiscally conservative he is, he isn't really a good match for the state nor its GOP base even at this point on issues like trade, but he is adapt at zig zagging to the center on social issues like guns.

I will admit that he's done well thus far in the state given his fiscal conservatism, but if Toomey continues to have overall tightening margins like he has thus far, or collapses in the Philly burbs like the overwhelming majority of the PA GOP has recently, he's toast.  His overperformance compared to Hillary in areas like Bucks County helped push him over the top in 2016, and he only outperformed Trump by 0.1%.  As I do expect Trump to lose PA in 2020 first out of any of the Rust Belt states he flipped in 2016, I don't expect to see Toomey winning even if he does run again.  But we'll have to see!   

[Frenchrepublican]

Your scenario is not realistic, first of all it’s pretty unlikely that democrats win GA and AL in 2020, concerning 2022, if a democrat is in the White House, I think democrats will lose at least AZ (lower turnout among Hispanics) and maybe NH and I highly doubt they would take any R-held seat with (maybe) the exception of PA if Wolf runs.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I never said I wasn't worried about his chances. Frankly, I find Toomey's performances to be very impressive considering how fiscally conservative he is, he isn't really a good match for the state nor its GOP base even at this point on issues like trade, but he is adapt at zig zagging to the center on social issues like guns.

I will admit that he's done well thus far in the state given his fiscal conservatism, but if Toomey continues to have overall tightening margins like he has thus far, or collapses in the Philly burbs like the overwhelming majority of the PA GOP has recently, he's toast.  His overperformance compared to Hillary in areas like Bucks County helped push him over the top in 2016, and he only outperformed Trump by 0.1%.  As I do expect Trump to lose PA in 2020 first out of any of the Rust Belt states he flipped in 2016, I don't expect to see Toomey winning even if he does run again.  But we'll have to see!    

Trump losing helps him though and removes the drag that is causing problems in the suburbs of Philly.

I don't know about this for sure, but it is possible that Trump actually depressed Toomey's numbers in the Philly burbs in 2016, especially in Chester where Toomey actually won narrowly and Trump lost by 10%.
        Bucks
   Pat Toomey   Republican   175,898   51.82%
   Katie McGinty   Democratic   157,709   46.46%

         Hillary Clinton   Timothy Kaine   Democratic   167,060   48.42%
   Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   164,361   47.64%

      
        
        Chester
   Pat Toomey   Republican   133,662   49.36%
   Katie McGinty   Democratic   127,552   47.10%

   Hillary Clinton   Timothy Kaine   Democratic   141,682   51.90%
   Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   116,114   42.53%

Trumps impact could have actually reduced Toomey's margins in the Philly burbs, while helping Toomey in the rest of the state where his fiscal conservatism compared to his populism meant he unperformed him in the NE part of the state.

Also not sure where you are getting the 0.1% from. Toomey got .70% more than Trump state wide and was 4.2% higher in Bucks county and 6.83% higher in Chester. He was about 6% higher in performance in Montco and Delco as well.

[Suburbia]

If Biden wins, and Georgia gets two Democratic senators as a result of the 2020 elections; Isakson's successor could lose in a 2022 midterm, that could be daunting to a Abrams rematch with Kemp.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no guarantee that Wolf or Abrams will run in 2022. Abrams said she wants a position inside a Democratic cabinet. Sounds to me she doesnt want a 2022 candidacy for Gov.