Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Wow. I remember back then, Paul Martin was seen as being right wing enough, that otherwise Tory voters were considering backing him (and certainly, got the support of disgruntled PC voters). I am sure there was a worry that Harper was too right wing, due to his Reform/Alliance roots.

Of course, no one is accusing Trudeau of being right wing enough to attract Tory voters now.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

I definitly think that the Conservative Internal polls have captured a huge surge in support of Western regionalist Parties and are definitly afraid of them becoming a new reform party that ultimately pushes them out of power for a decade similar to the reform Party.

The fact that O'Toole is pandering heavily to Alberta and Saskatchewan with his Equalization rebate policy and other announcements seem to indicate they have givend up winning the election and are instead just trying to hold the west.

Yes, I agree with this. The problem is, and I don't think either of us are saying there is just one cause for any Conservative decline, is this can't fully explain the decline.  From the 2004 election to this NANOS poll, the Conservatives have lost 6% (29.6-23.6%.)  So, sure the NANOS poll is the lowest poll for Conservative support, but on the other hand, the next low in an election in Conservative support was 31.9% in 2015.  Four of the six recent polls show the Conservatives losing about 6% support from what had been assumed to be their base.

So, arithmetically Western regional parties can't fully explain this.  Alberta is slightly over 12.5% of the Canadian population and add in Saskatchewan and they're around 14.5% of the population.  If all the Conservative loss in support is based on Western regional parties, that would mean these regional parties would have to be polling at roughly 40% (6/14.5.)  I certainly don't think that is the case.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

I definitly think that the Conservative Internal polls have captured a huge surge in support of Western regionalist Parties and are definitly afraid of them becoming a new reform party that ultimately pushes them out of power for a decade similar to the reform Party.

The fact that O'Toole is pandering heavily to Alberta and Saskatchewan with his Equalization rebate policy and other announcements seem to indicate they have givend up winning the election and are instead just trying to hold the west.

Yes, I agree with this. The problem is, and I don't think either of us are saying there is just one cause for any Conservative decline, is this can't fully explain the decline.  From the 2004 election to this NANOS poll, the Conservatives have lost 6% (29.6-23.6%.)  So, sure the NANOS poll is the lowest poll for Conservative support, but on the other hand, the next low in an election in Conservative support was 31.9% in 2015.  Four of the six recent polls show the Conservatives losing about 6% support from what had been assumed to be their base.

So, arithmetically Western regional parties can't fully explain this.  Alberta is slightly over 12.5% of the Canadian population and add in Saskatchewan and they're around 14.5% of the population.  If all the Conservative loss in support is based on Western regional parties, that would mean these regional parties would have to be polling at roughly 40% (6/14.5.)  I certainly don't think that is the case.

I do think there's broad discontent in the base given their relative support for covid lockdowns and vaccines that applies even in Ontario and possibly Quebec which might supprese conservative Turnout. It's also possible Canada is having the same response problems as America and the polls are off due to conservative simply starting to become less likley to respond to them.

[mileslunn]

Also 2004 was 17 years ago and of those who have died since, my guess is Conservatives did better amongst them than those still alive.  By contrast someone who was 18 in 2004 would be 35 today and so a whole new generation who couldn't vote.  Never mind since then we have taken in 3 million new immigrants and while Conservatives can do well here with right policies, I think nativism amongst some in base has really turned this group off, even amongst those who may lean right.  So could be demographic churn.

At same time be interested in seeing who undecided are.  I know in Alberta with Kenney's big drop, almost all undecided are former UCP voters as very few 2019 UCP voters have gone over to NDP.  Many have instead moved to undecided column so its possible a lot of the undecided are on the right.  Question is where do they go?  Do they go to further right party?  Return to Tories?  Or not vote at all?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

[mileslunn]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

On policy I would argue they will wait until campaign starts lest Liberals steal their ideas.  That being said I think bigger problem is what issue is there where Canadians lean right nowadays?  On pretty much every issue Canadians lean left.  Social Conservatism has never sold in Canada while fiscal conservatism is not too popular nowadays (it may in future, but not right now) so pretty much while I agree party with a different leader might not be doing as badly.  I think political make up of country means Tories cannot win no matter who they run and what they put forward.  Its also why with how awful things are I am not optimistic of them bouncing back anytime soon.  Some may have disagreed with me, but I think odds of them not forming government before 2030 are far higher than not.  Sure 9 years is a long ways away.  But the base and membership of party is not going to suddenly change.  I think party is in a big rut and its why I see NDP is being more likely to defeat Liberals when people fatigue of them than Tories.  Just because parties always come back ignores that if you have a tone deaf membership, pretty tough to.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mike Harris has to be the most common name in Ontario

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

But I do think the case for centrists is that the CPC isn't offering anything they want to see.

Right-wing priorities just aren't resonating with Canadians right now, just like left-wing priorities were put on the backburner in the 1990s, so the Liberals then became centre-right and even the third way NDP fell largely into irrelevance. If Canada gets a credit downgrade, interest rates go up, there's a terrorist attack by a non-white perp, crime becomes a huge issue, and so on, the right would have a much easier time.

What I mean by the CPC being "awful" isn't that they don't resonate with my priorities, it's that they don't even resonate with their own voters. O'Toole's moderating efforts seem to annoy the right wing of his party, while the right wing of his party seem to annoy the centrists. It's hard to say what the raison d'être of the CPC is anymore. O'Toole is trying to find a position by talking about how they're the only opposition to four left-leaning parties, so it seems like he's trying to unite the base. That's what I think the CPC needs to do right now, put aside building a winning coalition for another cycle, just focus on unity for now. Problem is, when O'Toole is announcing carbon taxes and trying to portray a socially progressive image, the right isn't going to feel so united.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

Wasn't really aware of his Harper-obsession so it's probably that. But honestly, would Harper coming back even hurt the CPC? He'd probably unite the right much better than O'Toole has

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

Wasn't really aware of his Harper-obsession so it's probably that. But honestly, would Harper coming back even hurt the CPC? He'd probably unite the right much better than O'Toole has

People tend to like the idea of these old leaders coming back more than the actual Leaders.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

Wasn't really aware of his Harper-obsession so it's probably that. But honestly, would Harper coming back even hurt the CPC? He'd probably unite the right much better than O'Toole has

People tend to like the idea of these old leaders coming back more than the actual Leaders.

Hmm, why stop at Harper? Jean Chretien, 87, vs Brian Mulroney, 82, would make for one hell of an election.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

Wasn't really aware of his Harper-obsession so it's probably that. But honestly, would Harper coming back even hurt the CPC? He'd probably unite the right much better than O'Toole has

People tend to like the idea of these old leaders coming back more than the actual Leaders.

Hmm, why stop at Harper? Jean Chretien, 87, vs Brian Mulroney, 82, would make for one hell of an election.

Tory leader Joe Clark part 3, electric boogaloo

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

Wasn't really aware of his Harper-obsession so it's probably that. But honestly, would Harper coming back even hurt the CPC? He'd probably unite the right much better than O'Toole has

People tend to like the idea of these old leaders coming back more than the actual Leaders.

Agreed. The other side of this is it's the summer, there's nothing going on, and rank speculation makes better copy than the correct analysis which is:

a) O'Toole is unlikely to be replaced before the next election (which is likely to be called before we'd have time to do a leadership race anyway)

b) If he's replaced before the election, the new leader would almost certainly be one of a handful of MP's that everyone already knows.

c) If he's replaced after the election, there's a chance at a surprise winner, but it would almost certainly be someone with minimal name recognition today, not Stephen Harper.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

There's ~6-7% of the vote in Ontario that was willing to vote for a right wing populist leader in Ontario, recently enough that demographic churn wouldn't be an issue, that didn't vote Conservative or PPC in 2019. Those are the voters the Tories need to win back*, and whose vote decision process we really need to consider in the "what's compelling about the Tories" question.

*More or less, obviously the Fords are always going to have a different appeal in Toronto than the federal Tories.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

There's ~6-7% of the vote in Ontario that was willing to vote for a right wing populist leader in Ontario, recently enough that demographic churn wouldn't be an issue, that didn't vote Conservative or PPC in 2019. Those are the voters the Tories need to win back*, and whose vote decision process we really need to consider in the "what's compelling about the Tories" question.

*More or less, obviously the Fords are always going to have a different appeal in Toronto than the federal Tories.

I don't think you can draw a direct connection between Ford Nation and the federal Tories, Ford Nation ability to outperform the federal tories always relies on their ability to win minority communites in Toronto. On provincal level these voters are open to right-wing populist ideas regarding fiscal conservatives and the need to check left-wing ideas.
 
A conservative federal platform doesn't have the same resonance, there's no appetite for issues like western alienation that make up federal canadian conservative populism. The Liberals strong immigrant machine allows them to keep these communites on their sides along with being percived to be better on the issue of immigration which the conservatives can't outflank without abandoning their base.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

There's ~6-7% of the vote in Ontario that was willing to vote for a right wing populist leader in Ontario, recently enough that demographic churn wouldn't be an issue, that didn't vote Conservative or PPC in 2019. Those are the voters the Tories need to win back*, and whose vote decision process we really need to consider in the "what's compelling about the Tories" question.

*More or less, obviously the Fords are always going to have a different appeal in Toronto than the federal Tories.

I don't think you can draw a direct connection between Ford Nation and the federal Tories, Ford Nation ability to outperform the federal tories always relies on their ability to win minority communites in Toronto. On provincal level these voters are open to right-wing populist ideas regarding fiscal conservatives and the need to check left-wing ideas.
 
A conservative federal platform doesn't have the same resonance, there's no appetite for issues like western alienation that make up federal canadian conservative populism. The Liberals strong immigrant machine allows them to keep these communites on their sides along with being percived to be better on the issue of immigration which the conservatives can't outflank without abandoning their base.

On top of Ford Nation voters in Toronto (many of whom normally vote Liberal), a lot of Ford's gains (probably most of them) came from centre/centre-right Liberals voting strategically to stop the NDP. They're not going to vote Conservative if the NDP isn't a threat.

[mileslunn]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

There's ~6-7% of the vote in Ontario that was willing to vote for a right wing populist leader in Ontario, recently enough that demographic churn wouldn't be an issue, that didn't vote Conservative or PPC in 2019. Those are the voters the Tories need to win back*, and whose vote decision process we really need to consider in the "what's compelling about the Tories" question.

*More or less, obviously the Fords are always going to have a different appeal in Toronto than the federal Tories.

I don't think you can draw a direct connection between Ford Nation and the federal Tories, Ford Nation ability to outperform the federal tories always relies on their ability to win minority communites in Toronto. On provincal level these voters are open to right-wing populist ideas regarding fiscal conservatives and the need to check left-wing ideas.
 
A conservative federal platform doesn't have the same resonance, there's no appetite for issues like western alienation that make up federal canadian conservative populism. The Liberals strong immigrant machine allows them to keep these communites on their sides along with being percived to be better on the issue of immigration which the conservatives can't outflank without abandoning their base.

On top of Ford Nation voters in Toronto (many of whom normally vote Liberal), a lot of Ford's gains (probably most of them) came from centre/centre-right Liberals voting strategically to stop the NDP. They're not going to vote Conservative if the NDP isn't a threat.

Very true, it does seem especially in 416 suburbs and 905 belt that when a Tory-Liberal race, Liberals almost always come out on top.  2008 despite being a national disaster, parties ran even while last time Tories at either level beat the Liberals in 905 belt was 1999 provincially.  By contrast both times in past century when it was a Tory-NDP battle (2011 federally and 2018 provincially), Tories won. 

I suspect that was a big reason Harper wanted to eliminate Liberals as he figured if NDP was main opponent, party would have better odds and could win those.  Perhaps he looked at BC which is not exactly a conservative province yet until recently, its been dominated by centre-right provincially.  Or across the pond as while UK is perhaps a bit more conservative not sure difference is as big as election results show.  After all Tories in UK usually get over 40% most of the time whereas in Canada, only in really good elections do they.

[mileslunn]

This is interesting https://abacusdata.ca/party-leaders-canada-abacus-july-2021/ .  Singh has very good personal numbers and while that may not mean much, after all both Layton and Broadbent had similarly good numbers yet never won, it does suggest to me if Liberals were unpopular, he might have a legitimate shot.  Trudeau's numbers are a meh.  Not great, but not either type that tends to lead to defeats of governments.  O'Toole's are awful and a few comparisons I can think of who had numbers like that for opposition leaders are Tim Hudak, Stephane Dion, and Michael Ignatieff.  I don't know of any opposition leader having numbers this bad and going onto win.  Closest perhaps was Harper in summer of 2005 whose were pretty negative and then changed that during the campaign, but I don't think they were this bad.  Doug Ford in 2018 and Jason Kenney in 2019 were also negative but again not this bad and Ford also benefitted from Wynne being worse and Ontario generally not comfortable with an NDP government while Kenney benefitted from fact Alberta is by nature conservative so they are default party, not natural underdog like Tories are federally.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

I did not. Caveat being that my views have changed since then, and I lived in Ottawa Centre which is purely NDP vs Liberal. I ended up voting Liberal.

Would 2021 Laddicus Finch have voted PC? With hindsight, no, I'm not a fan of the Ford government and still a Liberal member who is locally active. Without hindsight? I would have considered it. Never been a fan of the Fords, but I might have seen the PCs as a decent, moderate alternative to an increasingly tired and underperforming Liberal government.

I'm probably not the kind of moderate that O'Toole or Ford would go for, however. I'm not culturally conservative at all, more temperamentally and fiscally. I might have been the type of person who voted for Harper's CPC in 2008/2011, but I wasn't old enough to vote then.

[King of Kensington]

Re: Western alienation

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-has-western-canada-really-been-mistreated/

[King of Kensington]

‘Western’ alienation is just an ideological cover for Alberta/Sask imperialism. BC has complaints from time to time about Ottawa, but they are not those of Kenney, Moe et al. I live almost as far west as you can get and I’m less alienated from Ottawa than from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/regwhit1/status/1414616763610779649

[mileslunn]

Exactly I am from BC and BC is the most Western province and largest in West and is in many ways more aligned with Ontario than Alberta or Saskatchewan.  Western Alienation has really meant Alberta alienation and Saskatchewan.  A lot pushing it are really just right wing voters who are upset country won't vote the way they wished and is more progressive than to their liking.  And funny thing is even in Alberta, most voters aren't as conservative as they are.  In fact after seeing Kenney, some may be coming to conclusion maybe Trudeau for all his flaws as not as bad as it could be and that this is just really a diversionary tactic by right to cover for own mistakes.