WaPo/Ipsos: Trump at 4-5% against all Democrats among black adults

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington Post/Ipsos, Jan. 2-8, 1088 non-Hispanic black adults.

Biden 82, Trump 4
Sanders 74, Trump 4
Warren 71, Trump 4
Booker 67, Trump 4
Bloomberg 62, Trump 4
Yang 62, Trump 4
Klobuchar 58, Trump 5
Buttigieg 57, Trump 4

Somebody better check on Charlie Kirk.

[Tender Branson]

Could be generational, but still annoying:

About half of Black Democrats have (strong) reservations about voting for a gay man ...

[Bidenworth2020]

Truly stunningly bad numbers for Trump. Blacks have always been more economically driven, and as such typically give incumbents better numbers than their first election even if they lose. Not only is Trump not matching the standard 7-8% republicans get among blacks, he has cratered to 4-5% against any candidate, including a gay guy (I know undecided are depending on the candidate, but still) and is not able to do any better, does not bode well for his re-election. I guess his only hope is that blacks are equally is not less energized to vote than they were in 2016. Also interesting to see that even among low propensity blacks, Biden has the clear edge in terms of them turning out and also voting democrat (though low propensity blacks, if they voted, would probably be like 97-3 democrat.)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Washington Post/Ipsos, Jan. 2-8, 1088 non-Hispanic black adults.

Biden 82, Trump 4
Sanders 74, Trump 4
Warren 71, Trump 4
Booker 67, Trump 4
Bloomberg 62, Trump 4
Yang 62, Trump 4
Klobuchar 58, Trump 5
Buttigieg 57, Trump 4

Somebody better check on Charlie Kirk.

Yeah, but Buttigieg is only at 57%, and many of the other candidates not much higher... So in theory...

Just theoretically, mind you...

Trump could get all the undecideds, and then Trump would be sitting at 43% support with black voters.

It is possible...



And that is better than any Republican has done with black voters since Abraham Lincoln (no source provided).








And then Buttigieg goes like this:

[Old Man Willow]

But, but Charlie Kirk said Trump has a 34% approval rating with blacks!

[Podgy the Bear]

This is hilarious!  What say you, NYC Millennial Minority??

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, but the Dem numbers are also very low compared to Clinton for everyone but Biden (and his 82% is still low) so IDK what your point is?  The poll just has a ton of undecideds.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That 4% floor!

Yes, but the Dem numbers are also very low compared to Clinton for everyone but Biden (and his 82% is still low) so IDK what your point is?  The poll just has a ton of undecideds.

Trump is not going to win the majority of those undecideds.

[Bidenworth2020]

Yes, but the Dem numbers are also very low compared to Clinton for everyone but Biden (and his 82% is still low) so IDK what your point is?  The poll just has a ton of undecideds.

90% of respondents said it was extremely important to them that Trump lose re- election. Even if Trump won over every other black voter, he would still only match his 2016 numbers.

[SN2903]

He will end up getting 7-9% in the end.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He will end up getting 7-9% in the end.

For once, you are correct and have realistic expectations for him.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

He will end up getting 7-9% in the end.

For once, you are correct and have realistic expectations for him.

No, you have unrealistically pessimistic expectations for the Dems (in terms of performance with African American voters).

[The Mikado]

He will end up getting 7-9% in the end.

For once, you are correct and have realistic expectations for him.

No, you have unrealistically pessimistic expectations for the Dems (in terms of performance with African American voters).

Eh. 2016 had the black vote going 89% Clinton, 8% Trump, 3% Other. If 2020 is something like 92% Democrat, 7% Trump, 1% Other that's still a pro Dem swing.

[Matty]

I don’t trust polls that target only certain demographic groups

Remember when polls of Latinos said trump wouldn’t break 20% and he got almost 30%?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Eh. 2016 had the black vote going 89% Clinton, 8% Trump, 3% Other. If 2020 is something like 92% Democrat, 7% Trump, 1% Other that's still a pro Dem swing.

You are misinformed by (typically inaccurate) exit polls. Actual #s were more likely to be around 3% African American support for Trump.

https://medium.com/@CatalistAnalytics/catalist-post-election-analysis-series-356c4ea20692

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwC_GapbE3vF6-n1THVbwcXoU_zFvO8jJQL99ouX3Rw/edit?ts=5beae6d4#gid=433702266

[Bidenworth2020]

Eh. 2016 had the black vote going 89% Clinton, 8% Trump, 3% Other. If 2020 is something like 92% Democrat, 7% Trump, 1% Other that's still a pro Dem swing.

You are misinformed by (typically inaccurate) exit polls. Actual #s were more likely to be around 3% African American support for Trump.

https://medium.com/@CatalistAnalytics/catalist-post-election-analysis-series-356c4ea20692

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwC_GapbE3vF6-n1THVbwcXoU_zFvO8jJQL99ouX3Rw/edit?ts=5beae6d4#gid=433702266

?? This poll had Clinton at +93 among blacks, better than Obama 08 and matching Obama 12. It also has democrats doing worse than her among blacks in 2018.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

?? This poll had Clinton at +93 among blacks, better than Obama 08 and matching Obama 12. It also has democrats doing worse than her among blacks in 2018.

It is not a poll, it is aggregation of sophisticated individual-level voter modeling using the best available methodology and data.

Correct, it has her doing as well as Obama '12 and better than Obama '08 among African American voters. If you think that is wrong, while it is indeed quite possible it could be slightly off by a point or 2, it is more likely to be your assumptions that are wrong.

As for why Dems would do worse among Blacks in 2018 than 2016, the likely explanation is that this is comparing Congressional vote data to Presidential vote data. In congressional races, a lot of races are not seriously contested and have lopsided vote results, because the challenger is not a serious candidate/doesn't get funding to run a serious campaign. In those sorts of races, Black voters (like voters in general) are more likely to vote differently than in Presidential races. In addition, in midterms the African American electorate is older and higher income than in Presidential years, which tends to make it slightly more GOP-friendly (you can see similar patterns in the 2010/2014 data).

[Progressive Pessimist]

He will end up getting 7-9% in the end.

For once, you are correct and have realistic expectations for him.

No, you have unrealistically pessimistic expectations for the Dems (in terms of performance with African American voters).

I don't know about that, Romney absolutely plateaued with black voters but still managed to get  6% against Obama. An election not against Obama probably gives Trump, and maybe any other Republican, at least a 7% floor or so.

[Hammy]

I don’t trust polls that target only certain demographic groups

Remember when polls of Latinos said trump wouldn’t break 20% and he got almost 30%?

All comes down to turnout. Everybody who supports Trump is going to vote for him, but not everybody who opposes him will vote. Buttigieg's numbers being a good example--that high a number of undecideds means good chance of very low turnout, so Trump would then overperform his polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bush W made an attempt to reach out to blacks with no child left behind and SSA reform, 401 K for younger workers. Trump party hasnt made any attempt to reach out to blacks, especially with record homelessness, and not tried to expand Section 8 vouchers for people with no dependent kids under 18 or Seniors

[Kamala's side hoe]

This is hilarious!  What say you, NYC Millennial Minority??

I honestly think that person is a white guy pretending to be Asian or mixed-race on the interwebs