🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[NOVA Green]

Anybody know how the mail in votes are being counted?

I was reading an estimated 40% of the ballots cast will be mail-in this year, up from 29% last election, and was curious if we can expect this to play a role as election results continue to come in.

[NOVA Green]

Nothing from Baden-Württemberg yet?

[NOVA Green]

Did 37: Luchow-Dannenberg-Luneburg just flip in Niedersachen to SPD?

[NOVA Green]

Seems like SPD and the Greens have been making decent % gains in NRW based upon the complete results thus far, with CDU dropping significantly.

Is that something anyone else is has been noticing?

[NOVA Green]

So looks like there are a few more flips:

65- Elbe Elster- Oberspreewald- Lausitz II   (Brandenburg)     CDU > SPD
203- Trier (Rhineland Pfalz)     CDU > SPD
63: Frankfort (Oder) - Oder Spree (Brandenburg) CDU > SPD

[NOVA Green]

More flips:

191: Jena-Sommerda-Weimarer Land I (Thuringen) CDU > SPD
281: Freiburg (Baden Wurttemmberg)     CDU> Green
28: Delmenhorst- Wesermarsch-Olenburg Land (Niedersachen) CDU > SPD
43: Hannover Land I (Niedersachen) CDU>SPD

[NOVA Green]

Another flip:

194: Gera-Greiz-Altenburger Land (Thuringen)    CDU >AfD

Is this the first Afd pickup?

[NOVA Green]

Another flip:

194: Gera-Greiz-Altenburger Land (Thuringen)    CDU >AfD

Is this the first Afd pickup?

No. Take a look at the map I posted some minutes ago.

Got it--- color coding looks different on the map on the right for AfD so didn't catch that--- Thanks!

[NOVA Green]

More flips:

155: Meissen (Sachsen)    CDU > AfD
258: Stuttgart I (Baden Wurttemberg) CDU > Green (!!!)
219: Muchen Sud (Bayern)  CSU > Green
150: Markischer Kreis II (NRW)  SPD > CDU
72: Halle (Sachsen Anhalt) CDU > SPD

[NOVA Green]

Another CDU > SPD flip

103: Solingen-Remscheid- Wuppertal II   (NRW)  CDU > SPD (With again Greens gaining dramatically)

[NOVA Green]

Had to head out and run a few errands:

Recent flip from a few mins back:

13: Ludswiglust-Parchim II- Nordwest Mecklenberg II- Landkreis Rostock I

(Mecklenburg Vorpommern) CDU > SPD (Massive collapse of CDU > SPD and not just Linke > SPD % shift scene or AfD situation.

[NOVA Green]

Another recent flip (15 mins back):

93- Koln I (NRW)   CDU>SPD      Greens place 2nd and push CDU into 3rd

[NOVA Green]

ICYMI ZDF Hochrechnung 01:09

SPD:     25.8%
Union:   24.1%
Greens: 14.6%
FDP:      11.5%
AfD:      10.4%
Linke:    4.9%

Meaning ZDF and ARD (23:36) are Identical (give or take 0.1 from the AfD).

Nice to see the AfD significantly behind the FDP.

[NOVA Green]

Another flip from Rostock official 14 mins back:

14- Landkreis- Rostock II  (Mecklenburg Vorpommern)     CDU> SPD

CDU  = -12.6%
SPD=   +9.0%
Greens= +5.0%
AfD=      -2.5%
Linke= -6.6%

[NOVA Green]

Another Green flip:

274- Heidelberg  (Baden-Wurttemberg)     CDU> Green

CDU=    -8,6%
SPD=     -5.9%
Greens=  +13.5%

[NOVA Green]

Weird & Interesting and perhaps someone can explain....

55- Bremen II-    Bremerhaven

SPD holds-      +3.0%
CDU         =    -4.9%
Linke        =    -4.1%
Greens     =     +6.9%
AfD          =     -2.6%
FDP         =      -0.7%
Others     =      +6.1%


Where did the AfD voters go between '17 and '21?

[NOVA Green]

There's a definite pattern of Green constituency victories in 'nice' smaller cities.

Yeah--- that's part of the reason when I first jumped on with results coming in I asked if we had any results yet from Baden Wurtemmberg, figuring that this was a Province where the Greens couldn't definitely place quite well.

HOWEVER---- I just saw the results come through from Tubingen and was a bit bummed thinking this could be another Green pickup:

1st Vote:

CDU-      27.0%     (-8.7%)
SPD-      18.2%     (+0.9%)
Greens-  25.7%     (+6.6%)
FDP-       9.4%      (+1.5%)
AfD-       7.8%       (-0.8%)
Linke-    4.7%        (-4.0%)
Others-  7,3%        (+7.3%)

2nd vote:

CDU-    21.8%
SPD-    20.4%
Greens- 23.4%
FDP-     14.2%
AfD-       7.9%
Linke      5.2%
Others    7.2%

[NOVA Green]

Bunch more recent flips since my last update:

67: Borde-Jerichower Land   (Sachsen-Anhalt)          CDU>SPD
1:   Flensburg-Holstein         (Schleswig-Holstein)     CDU>Green   

    *** This was the constituency in the Far North which Hades had painted Green in his map from a few hrs ago  ***

8: Segeberg-Stormarn-Mitte   (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD

4: Rendsburg-Eckernforde      (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD

9: Ostholstein- Stormarn-Nord (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD 

10: Herzogtum-Lauenburg-Stormarn-Sud (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD 

56: Prignitz-Ost Prignitz- Ruppin- Havelland I (Brandenburg)   CDU>SPD 

6: Plon- Nuemunster  (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD 

94: Koln II  (NRW)  CDU>GREEN (!!!)

17: Mecklenburgeriche- Seenplatte II- Landkreis Rostock III  (Mecklenburg-Vorpommen)        CDU>SPD 

[NOVA Green]

What happened to the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein?

Honestly the extent of their collapse between '17 and '21 is pretty dramatic...

[NOVA Green]

What happened to the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein?

Honestly the extent of their collapse between '17 and '21 is pretty dramatic...

Pretty common for the lead party to pull off a near-sweep of constituencies: most are quite fine balances of different elements and incumbents are less 'sticky' than in (say) NRW.

Greens seem to have performed extremely well in Schleswig-Holstein as well, and sure I know there was a rural region which had a big impact as part of the AKW NSB, where Nuclear Energy issues pushed many more traditional rural voters of a certain generation to be receptive to Green politics.

[NOVA Green]

CDU narrowly holds:

77: Berlin Reinickendorf    (Berlin)       

CDU=     -9.6%
SPD=      +2.2%
Greens=  +6.1%
AfD=       -3.4%
FDP=       +1.5%
Linke=     -2.9%

[NOVA Green]

81-   Berlin- Templehof-Schoeneberg flips CDU> SPD

1st vote:

SPD:     27.1%     (+5.0%)
CDU:    21.9%     (-7.0%)
Greens: 25.1%     (+6.2%)
FDP:      7.3%      (+1.0%)
AfD:      5.7%      (-3.3%)
Linke:    6.1%      (-4.7%)
Others:  6.8%


2nd vote:

SPD:     24.8%    
CDU:     18.2%    
Greens: 25.2%     (!!!)
FDP:       9.5%      
AfD:       6.2%      
Linke:     7.5%      
Others:   8.5%

Miss my old City of Berlin.      

[NOVA Green]

As expected Greens HOLD:

83- Berlin-Friedrichshain -Kreuzberg-P'Berg Ost   (Berlin) 

(My old neighborhoods!!!)

1st Round

Greens-  37,8%       (+11.5%)
Linke-    17,7%       (-7.2%)
SPD-      17.4%       (+0.5%)
Others-   10.1%      (+10.1%)
CDU-       7.7%       (-4.6%)
FDP-       5.4%        (+2.3%)
AfD-       3.9%         (-2.3%)

[NOVA Green]

(5) more flips since my last update:

Pinneberg- (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD      (Referenced a few minutes ago upthread)

Lubeck-  (Schleswig-Holstein)   CDU>SPD   

WOW!   Greens place 2nd ahead of CDU   (!!!)

Aachen I   (NRW)     CDU> Green (Referenced a few minutes ago upthread)

187: Odenwald (Hesse)     CDU>SPD

85  Berlin-Marzahn  (Berlin)  Linke>CDU  (!!!)

That one really pisses me off, but when I lived in Berlin was always very careful hanging out in neighborhoods around Marzahn since it was known as a Neo-Nazi stronghold back in the early / mid '90s.

[NOVA Green]

Berlin Marzahn-Hellersdorf flipping is really odd. CDU has done worse in every seat on first vote compared to 2017, except Berlin Marzahn-Hellersdorf which they did 7.2% better in.

Not sure what was going on there with local politics but maybe something to do with the two candidates?

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petra_Pau

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_Czaja

Does look like AfD did some tactical voting and shifted votes towards CDU in the 1st round, while meanwhile Greens & SPD both improved compared to 2017.

Still.... 2nd round votes:

SPD: 23.4%
AfD:  16.9%
CDU: 16.4%
Linke: 15.9%
Grune: 8.6%
FDP:    7.3%
Others: 11.6%