NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Suburbia]

The NYCGOP is not relevant in this election, it's only a question of who they chose to get 25% to 30%

I wouldnt say that. Republicans have won before in NYC. Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Guliani were Republicans.

That is true, but as long as the NYPD is around, the NYCGOP will always be relevant.....

That was over a decade ago and isn't really relevant to the current election.

Bronz stumbling backward into a good and entirely correct point.

It's the truth. The NYCGOP is the only political party in the city that fully "supports" the NYPD lockstep and barrel. Police departments are too politicized and that is the problem.

In 1992, Rudy Giuliani had a pro-police riot at City Hall, where off-duty cops were calling Mayor David Dinkins racial slurs.

[Suburbia]

The NYCGOP is not relevant in this election, it's only a question of who they chose to get 25% to 30%

If Eric Ulrich were to make a last minute entry he'd win the Republican Primary, and probably scoop up at least 44-45% in a general election.

Yes, Ulrich is more sane than Sliwa. Have Sliwa as a crime czar, but Sliwa is just like Bo Dietl. Angry white ethnics obsessed with crime.

Ulrich would win the primary and would give the Dems a run in the election, but he would lose.

[Suburbia]

I assume it's because the democrats are in power in D.C and it's not exactly an easy job but I'm always surprised at how relatively weak/low-key/inexperienced the democratic benches seem to be in every primary going back what 20-30 years?

Is there a reason for that?

Nationally or just in New York City?

New York City! I guess it's probably related to people always going for the easier life that a safe NYC congressional seat gives you or the more powerful position state wide.

Being mayor of New York City has all the stresses of being a governor of a big state with only a fraction of the benefits and power.

Being a big-city mayor in the US in general is a pretty thankless task, since most of the biggest problems that cities suffer from can't be solved at just a local level, and often they're hamstrung by either the state or the federal governments, or machine-type City Council and civil servants that don't have much interest in changing the status quo.

This. Mayor is a tough job. de Blasio was destined to truly change policing, the powerful police unions neutered him.

[Suburbia]

Any chances Christine Quinn enters the race and shakes up the campaign?

She'd be a more tougher mayor than de Blasio....

Also, any chance the Republicans look for someone more serious than Curtis Sliwa? He is a poor man's Bo Dietl.....he is right on the crime issues, but he isn't to be taken seriously because of his foolishness

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFgkV020d9M

I am surprised Andrew Lanza or Paul Massey don't enter, they would put up a respectable 25%-30% of the vote in November.

Eric Ulrich does not look like a mayoral leader. He may be too "puny or beta" for the GOP base on Staten Island, Brooklyn.

[Suburbia]

I'm not much of a Yang fan at all, but anyone who thinks there's some huge groundswell out there of people who actively dislike Yang (beyond people who would dislike any Democrat) spends way too much time online imo.  

Among a tiny sliver of extremely high-information voters / NYC politics junkies, sure-- among the general population, I don't think the evidence is there for any such phenomenon.

I don't think it's necessarily about dislike for Yang: it's skepticism that he would be a competent mayor.

He can talk about a "humanity-focused economy" and mention UBIs and that casino on Governor's Island, but that doesn't really make people think Yang can take on the very real problems that New York City faces

The question also remains if Yang has the stamina to deal with the ever powerful police unions-----they neutered de Blasio and I think only Adams and Wiley and maybe Stringer can handle Lynch and the Long Island brigade.

[Suburbia]

Adams could win....he is popular with Black voters and he could appeal to Staten Islanders without winning the borough, he could pull 40%-45% of the vote there...he is a former cop

[Suburbia]

Former MLB labor negotiator and Giuliani deputy mayor and current New York Yankees president Randy Levine is considering a run for New York City mayor, based on people pushing polling on his name and potential candidacy

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1360061874721718273

[Suburbia]

Former MLB labor negotiator and Giuliani deputy mayor and current New York Yankees president Randy Levine is considering a run for New York City mayor, based on people pushing polling on his name and potential candidacy

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1360061874721718273

"as a Republican"

Whoa! This is worthless.

Levine has too many baggage, but I don't see him as mayoral material.

He's a Giuliani crony, secondly, he is tied to Trump, and if he ran, it would make the Yankees look too political, when they are seen as too close to MAGA people.....in the Bronx.

[Suburbia]

Former MLB labor negotiator and Giuliani deputy mayor and current New York Yankees president Randy Levine is considering a run for New York City mayor, based on people pushing polling on his name and potential candidacy

https://twitter.com/TweetBenMax/status/1360061874721718273

"as a Republican"

Whoa! This is worthless.

The only question left open about the general is how close will queens be and will democrats win Staten Island

Dems could win Staten Island, yes, I can see it. Even if Staten Island is conservative, they can elect a Democrat under right timing.

Curtis Sliwa is a joke....he'll get 25% of the vote citywide, or so...

[Suburbia]

Why isn't Eric Adams gaining traction? Is it because McGuire is in his lane of moderate black voters in Queens and Brooklyn? Is it because he is a former cop?

[Suburbia]

Why isn't Eric Adams gaining traction? Is it because McGuire is in his lane of moderate black voters in Queens and Brooklyn? Is it because he is a former cop?

Is it because he sucks?

How does he suck?

[Suburbia]

What percentage of the vote does Republicans get in November?

17% 25%?

Do they win Staten Island by 4 points?

[Suburbia]

If Yang goes down, Stringer or Adams may rise....

Adams is a center-left Democrat who was a cop.....in this climate....he will perform well with Black men and Black middle class voters left in NYC who are not anticop, but he probably will depress turnout in Williamsburg and Greenwich Village who are anticop.....

[Suburbia]

The only candidate I actively do not want and would vote for any other over is Adams

Why not?

[Suburbia]

I don't think Yang will do well with Black voters in NYC....they will most likely go to Adams, McGuire or Wiley, or Stringer

Eric Adams, Bkyn Borough President and former NYPD officer carries a gun with him and some liberals in NYC are worried.......

He also says that "young white people support the Defund the Police movement"

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/23/eric-adams-anti-crime-campaign-484380

NEW YORK — After 11 people were fatally shot inside a Pittsburgh synagogue three years ago, a politician nearly 400 miles away demanded an immediate shift in protocol.

“From now on, I will bring my handgun every time I enter a church or synagogue,” Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, a retired police captain who is now a leading candidate for New York City mayor, said the following day, encouraging trained cops to do the same.

Now Adams is among the top-tier Democratic candidates running to be the next mayor of New York, ranking second in most public polls and sitting on a $7.8 million war chest. As he competes in an eight-person field, he is carving a path formed by his biography: A Black man who openly discusses being a teenager assaulted by police officers, only to become one himself at a time when the city was mired in crime. He quickly challenged orthodoxies within the NYPD, protesting the cop shooting of a mentally-ill Black woman when he was in the Police Academy.

Despite four years as a registered Republican, he considers himself a progressive before it became popular.

But as a proud former police officer running for mayor with crime on the rise, Adams is often castigated for being out of step with the activist wing of a party whose vote he is seeking on June 22.

He wants to reinstate a plainclothes unit disbanded by the NYPD last year to focus on gun safety. He readily denounces the “defund NYPD” slogan that surged after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis last year. He has defended the controversial practice of stop-and-frisk if used correctly. He wants spot checks for guns entering the city at Port Authority bus terminals.[/b]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/23/eric-adams-anti-crime-campaign-484380

With the complete collapse of the NYCGOP, Sliwa and the others are a joke, Adams could be a contender....it's late April....anything can happen between now and June....plus the Al Sharpton endorsement is crucial in Democratic politics.....

It's really young white liberals that talk to Ari Horowitz, Black MSNBC leftists like Jason Johnson, and Elie Mystal and others that are pushing this Abolish/Defund stuff.....

Adams represents a working class central Brooklyn area that has a lot of crime, do you really think Black New Yorkers want to defund police?

[Suburbia]

Frontrunner
Andrew Yang
Competitors
Eric Adams, Scott Stringer
Periphery of Competition
Maya Wiley, Ray McGuire
Field
Shaun Donovan, Diane Morales, Kathryn Garcia

Here is my current breakdown, I've adjusted it to better reflect the state of the race. There's three people with a chance, two people who might break into the top tier, a field of people vying to get into competition, and one guy who just stays in the lead.

How set is the field?

Well, I'm pretty sure that nobody other than Yang, Stringer, and Adams actually has a chance. Wiley could get in, but not getting the UFT endorsement was a big blow for her. As for the rest, it's hard to predict how they will sort out. McGuire looks like he has some momentum, Morales might, it's hard to tell. But none of them will win.



Oh, and here is a congressional endorsements map. Stringer has 3 (Bowman, Nadler, Espaillat), Wiley has 2 (Clarke, Velazquez), McGuire has 1 (Meeks), Yang has 1 (Torres), and Adams has 1 (Suozzi).

Didn't know that Meeks endorsed McGuire! I knew Meeks wouldn't endorse Adams given the two have a little history of mutual dislike, but I'm surprised he went with a candidate that doesn't look all that viable.

Meeks represents southeast Queens, a crucial Black middle class bloc where Bill de Blasio did well against Bill Thompson, a Black man in 2013. Middle class Black professionals in Queens who made more money than whites in NYC in the mid-2000s before the economic recession......Adams and McGuire will cancel each other out for the Black middle class vote in NYC.....Tom Suozzi endorsed Adams because he thinks Adams could be a bridge to the white NYPD officers that live on Long Island, but work and patrol in Brooklyn and Queens......

[Suburbia]

Stringer will have to fight this......or else Adams and Wiley takes his chunk of upper middle class Jewish voters.......

[Suburbia]

What do you guys think of Democratic City Council candidates Tony Avella and Robert Holden, who are running to represent white ethnic Queens neighborhoods getting the support of the police unions?

https://twitter.com/TonyAvella/status/1384281446467002370

https://twitter.com/BobHoldenNYC/status/1373052492423004160

[Suburbia]

Adams is leading now....

My family likes Adams, some of them live in NYC...they think he can bring the LI cops and communities together.....

Adams is a contender, I've been telling y'all for weeks now, people should not downplay him because he is a cop....well who cares? He's not a Frank Rizzo type, but NYC is seeing a crime surge and a Black cop turned mayor could be what is needed to turn the city around

He's going to anger the DSA/Defund the Police crowd, he said since in 2018 that he would "outwhite and outcop Scott Stringer in Bay Ridge/Glendale/Staten Island......

If it is Adams vs. Sliwa, Adams could carry Staten Island, but by 1-3 points....Sliwa will paint Adams as a Black man, Staten Island, especially the South Shore will probably sour at that, but South Shore Democrats will probably go for Yang or Adams in the primary......

[Suburbia]

Eric Adams would be a disaster mayor and the republicans best hope at winning in four years if he wins and is t primaried

Explain.....

[Suburbia]

Eric Adams would be a disaster mayor and the republicans best hope at winning in four years if he wins and is t primaried

Explain.....

I’ve said this a few times before but he’s just toxic, he defends abusers, anti-semites and picks racist fights for no reason (Herman Badillo), his policies are wack (like the aforementioned 300 students debacle). Honest to god I dislike Bloomberg, Schultz as much as any democrat but if Bloomberg ran against Adams I’d probably vote for them

dude straight up went from supporting farrakhan to supporting gingrich within a year

So? A lot of people change their political views.....this is not something new....a lot of older Black people like Adams and a lot of moderate white ethnic voters in Staten Island and Brooklyn don't trust Yang....can Yang handle crime and can he handle the NYPD's union goons Lynch and Mullins?

[Suburbia]

I fully expect Adams to win. The only union thats going to be ride or die with Stringer is the UFT. Rest are going to Adams.

HTC (hotel workers, very very close w De Blasio) are spending buckets of cash to shore up Adams among Hispanic voters. Baffling to me that Morales has been leaving that constituency wide open but her campaign is run by morons.

I hope Adams wins. Yang doesn't have the experience to be mayor.

This....Adams or Wiley would be good....I don't think they would get the Dinkins treatment, only on WABC radio, which is rightwing owned anyway.....

Adams is gaining because Black voters like him and Latino voters....a lot of Black voters don't like Yang because they don't know of him.....

I don't think the NYC PBA will make a mayoral endorsement, they would go after Adams even if he was a cop.......most of the Black NYPD officers that live in the city will probably vote for Adams or Yang.....

However, we don't know if the cop unions would get along with Adams....despite the fact that he probably knows them......his stop and frisk stance will alienate a lot of young voters....but he has disparaged young voters as "transplants".....older Black voters who like Biden will like Adams....older Black voters are the key in NYC as they are in places like central Brooklyn and southeast Queens..where a lot of middle class Black people live....they are likely to vote for Adams, Wiley or Stringer than Yang...

[Suburbia]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

[Suburbia]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

The NYCGOP is too corrupt. Giuliani did not create a bench when he left in 2001--like Chris Christie with the NJGOP.....Giuliani and Christie were once in a generation candidates suitable to win in blue areas with a economically conservative, tough on crime agenda that can appeal to moderate Democrats---but Christie had a better relationship with Black people than Giuliani. Black New Yorkers hate Giuliani because of the rampant police brutality with Louima, Diallo and Dorismond.....all Black men killed or assaulted (Louima is still alive) by white NYPD officers from Long Island and Rockland County. There is a reason why a lot of mayoral candidates and others want to change residency requirements; they feel that white suburban cops patrol Black areas that they don't understand culturally.....

The NYCGOP is moribund, the only way they can win in the future is if a lot of crossover Democrats and Independents vote for a highly-funded Republican who can appeal to all groups in NYC, not only the white ethnics that still remain in the City.

Adams said from 2018, when he was planning a run, that he was going to:

April 2018: At a private event, Adams reportedly pledged he would “out-white” New York City Comptroller Scott Stringerin the 2021 mayoral race. A registered Republican from 1995 to 2002, a time when Democrats arguably failed to effectively combat high crime in the city, Adams has long tried to appeal to white voters, especially when it comes to public safety. “People look at a black candidate and they think he can’t go into the Baysides, Bay Ridges and Marine Parks, and I’m not going to be the candidate that can’t do that,” Adams told the Times.

https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/new-york-city/how-eric-adams-has-shocked-new-york.html

Adams is probably the only Black man that can win the Bay Ridges and the Marine Parks---white ethnic places seen as hostile to Black people still in 2021---he is not going to be Dinkinsed....

Adams was beaten by a white cop in police brutality---and joined the force to make a change...

[Suburbia]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

I’m actually surprised they didn’t endorse Yang, or maybe I’m barely paying any attention to Eric Adams’ campaign and he’s more right wing than I thought?

Eric Adams brand of the NYC Democratic right is much more in tune with the New York Post than Yang's.

Which is why there is a possibility that Adams could win Staten Island in November---being the first Democrat to carry SI since Ed Koch in 1985....He is not going to be Dinkinsed, something that has stained citywide Democrats like Mark Green, Fernando Ferrer, Bill Thompson, and others...