Much, much easier to envision a plausible path for a Democratic candidate in MO (requires population growth + an utter Republican collapse in support in the Kansas City/St. Louis areas). VA is about as likely to vote for a Republican for president as MD.
I mostly agree with this. It's an elasticity issue. Southern states seem to only flip once every 30+ years and when they go they are quickly gone at every level. Midwestern states can more easily go for the "wrong" party in a landslide win even if it doesn't mean any kind of long term trend (IN 2008, MO 1980's).
Also think there's a more plausible path for the GOP to flip MD than VA. Hogan #'s in the rural areas + Baltimore starts to swing like the Detroit area.
I’m glad there’s someone else here who agrees with me on this. Obviously not saying that it will happen, but I’d say VA today is basically where MD was in 1992. I’m not even sure if a governor Hogan could have won reelection in VA in 2017 had he scraped by in 2013 (assuming a scenario in which governors can serve consecutive terms).
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