From the
Financial Times:
The FT poll of polls meanwhile suggests the Labour party is likely to be the biggest group in the Welsh parliament but it may find it difficult to secure an overall majority.
Members of the parliaments in Edinburgh and Cardiff are elected using a voting system based partly on proportional representation.
Constituency representatives are elected using the first past the post voting system. Additional representatives are elected based on the proportion of votes a party secures in a region comprising several constituencies. The hybrid voting system used in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments presents a high bar for a party to secure a majority of seats.
In the Welsh parliament, or senedd, 40 of its 60 members are elected from constituencies.
The Conservatives and Plaid Cymru are polling better than their results at the last election in 2016 and analysis that assumes a uniform swing in the vote suggests they could make several gains at Labour’s expense.
Labour has wielded power in Wales since devolution took effect in 1999 but its chances of securing a majority in Cardiff at the May 6 election look increasingly slim.
The remaining 20 members of the senedd are elected from party lists drawn from five regions.
Labour and Plaid Cymru are polling ahead of their results at the 2016 election, and could gain at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
With the UK Independence party and Reform competing for pro-Brexit votes, and both groups languishing at about 3 per cent in recent polls, there is room for Conservative gains.
But polls also show rising support for Abolish the Welsh Assembly, which is likely to give the anti-devolution party enough votes for seats in the senedd.
I wasn't even aware there was a Welsh independence movement, or that anyone thought it was worth tracking:
