538 model & poll tracker thread

[Granite City]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1292947361950564353?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We dont need anymore models Larry Sabato,  Cook and Nate Silver has it 279 to 259 and Biden will probably duplicate Hilary PVI margin 65 to 62 giving room for Trump to contest irregularities in VBM ballots in PA and MI. Biden will need 70 M votes to win TX, that's why polls show Trump still ahead in AZ and TX. NC is off, Biden isnt winning NC by more than 4 pts👍👍👍

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1292947361950564353?s=20

Wow... sad that they had to add that

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1292947361950564353?s=20

Not a great sign for the country when you have to add the "Forecast intended to be used in functioning democracies" disclaimer

[Roll Roons]

This might have been asked, but does the model also include Senate, House and gubernatorial races?

[wbrocks67]

This might have been asked, but does the model also include Senate, House and gubernatorial races?

given how long we've waited, i sure hope so

[ProudModerate2]

About time.

[SnowLabrador]

Will there be a House and Senate forecast too, or just President?

[ugabug]

Will there be a House and Senate forecast too, or just President?

As far as i know, it's just the Presidential model.

[Torrain]

At last!

After all the sniping at the Economist over the last month, will be interested to see whether there is any significant variation between the FiveThirtyEight and Economist models.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will there be a House and Senate forecast too, or just President?

As far as i know, it's just the Presidential model.

I really want a high quality senate model. They are very very difficult to make.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know Ds chances of winning 413 EC votes and 60 seat Senate is ridiculous just because Harris named Veep. A 51 Senate model and 279 EC votes is the best they will do.

Dems are too concerned over winning TX and AK

If they get that, Trump is bound to file legal challenges in WI and PA

[BlueSwan]

I'm sure they mean wednesday november 4th.

[Figueira]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Here's the likely link to the forecast

You're probably right--replacing 2020 with 2016 takes you to that forecast, replacing 2020 with other years gets you a 404 error, but the 2020 page is simply blank.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Here's the likely link to the forecast

You're probably right--replacing 2020 with 2016 takes you to that forecast, replacing 2020 with other years gets you a 404 error, but the 2020 page is simply blank.

I'm really hoping they make a senate model too. Unfortunately a few links that could be for a senate page but none seem to work We could really use some more high quality senate forecasts right now, and senate forecasts are really hard to make it, so if anyone were to make one, it would be Silver. Don't really care for a house forecast at this point but it would be nice

[BidenDuckworth2020]

The model is live at that link.

[Granite City]

The model is live at that link.

Won't work for me, what does it say?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The model is live at that link.

Won't work for me, what does it say?

Biden at 71% chance to win.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Utterly bizarre looking model though. Hoping it gets revised to at least include a map where you can hover over each state and see its predictions.

[Granite City]

Biden favoured in;

DC
VT
MA
CA
MD
NY
WA
RI
DE
IL
ME-01
CT
NJ
OR
NM
VA
CO
ME
MI
NH
NV
PA
MN
WI
FL
AZ
NE-02

319-219

[VAR]

AZ: Biden 56%
CO: Biden 84%
FL: Biden 65%
GA: Trump 66%
IA: Trump 68%
ME: Biden 77%
ME-02: Trump 64%
MI: Biden 81%
MN: Biden 72%
NE-02: Biden 54%
NV: Biden 77%
NH: Biden 72%
NM: Biden 90%
NC: Trump 51%
OH: Trump 55%
PA: Biden 74%
TX: Trump 71%
VA: Biden 92%
WI: Biden 70%

AK: Trump 81%
KS: Trump 94%
MO: Trump 87%
MT: Trump 88%
SC: Trump 87%

[Pericles]

The popular vote percentages are interesting, it would be pretty funny if Trump got the exact same vote share he got in 2016 but this time lost comfortably.

[Skye]

Biden's chances are surprisingly low.

I'm also not really a fan of the design, but welp.

[Former President tack50]

Biden's chances are surprisingly low.

I'm also not really a fan of the design, but welp.

Could they be overcompensating for 2016? Tbh given how this models get rated it is probably better to give Biden too low of a chance at winning than too high.

Also the design is interesting. Better than what I expected though not ideal

[Skye]

Biden's chances are surprisingly low.

I'm also not really a fan of the design, but welp.

Could they be overcompensating for 2016? Tbh given how this models get rated it is probably better to give Biden too low of a chance at winning than too high.

Also the design is interesting. Better than what I expected though not ideal

I would like to know but the methodology page isn't up yet. Silver will probably make a twitter thread explaining though.

But yeah, the design... the fact that there's no national map is strange. They're only represented with one of those horrible snake charts, and a few swing states. The rest, you have to select from a list. If you ask me, the design is a step down from 2016.