Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Mike88]

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?

[Mike88]

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?

You're right. But the way to indirectly elect the new, pretty unuseful, Senate is yet to be announced and the electoral law for the Lower House is in my opionion pretty insane...and it is the only law that could bring to power the clownish Five Star Movement or the alt-Right leaded by Matteo Salvini( trust me, with Grillo or Salvini in power even Silvio Berlusconi would resemble a Winston Churchill-type leader).

Hmm... Yikes! Honestly, if i was Italian i wouldn't know how to vote. If the No wins, Renzi resigns and political caos is back, and if Yes wins you guys get this weird, WTF electoral system. It's a lose lose situation unfortunately.

[Mike88]

I'm trying to understand this reform, but it seems to me very weird and confusing. So, the senate will be reduced, and the election for congress will have a second round between the two most voted parties in the first round, right?

The Senate will be reduced in terms of Senators and, more importantly, of powers.
It will not be able to kick out the government anymore, and will focus exclusively on local matters, concerning the regions.

Right now, instead, the House and the Senate both discuss the exact same topics, can both give votes of confidence to the government. The only thing differentiating them is the electorate (only those 25 or older can vote for the Senate).
Oh, and also, right now any law has to be approved by both chambers. If even a comma is changed in either chamber, the other one has to approve it from scratch. This really affects the legislative process.


As for the electoral law, yes, the current law has a second round between the two top parties. But a recent agreement between Renzi and part of PD's minority included changes to that.

Hmm.. I'm starting to get it. I approve the part where the senate has it's powers and size reduced. Also, i think this new system is somewhat similar to Spain's bicameral system.
On the other hand, the change in the electoral law i think is ludicrous. Why not use the system is Germany, where part of the seats are elected by FPTP and the other in a proportional vote. I think this system is very wise because it joins governability with proportionality.

[Mike88]

You're right, i was confusing Germany's system with AMS. Thanks Nawne for the clarification!

[Mike88]

Any chance, if the NO wins, Renzi makes a U-turn and says he's not resigning? Because, after all, this is Matteo Renzi.

[Mike88]

This map doesn't look very good for the Yes side.

[Mike88]

If he resigns then what?? There's no freaking alternative in Italy!!!

I think he should continue as PM. I believe he still has margin to negociate some kind of reform.

[Mike88]

RAI: Renzi's statement to country at Midnight delayed by 20 minutes.

Well, the margin is drop by drop narrowing but i really hope he's not resigning.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/matteorenzi/status/805548385486929920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Based on this tweet i don't know what to think....

Translation:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mike88]

Stupid, stupid, stupid decision. Once again, a politician makes crap and runs away.

[Mike88]

Let's see how the markets react to this. Hope they are as calm as they were when Trump won.

[Mike88]

Of the 20 regions, it seems only Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany will be voting "yes".

Rome voting against by somewhat more than the national margin, Torino and Milano by 55-45 and Napoli by more than 70-30. Firenze voting "yes" by 57-43.

If Italy leaves the EU under M5S will there be a movement in Trentino-Alto Adige to join Austria given today's election result in Austria?

Italy will not leave the EU. It's not worth thinking about it.

[Mike88]

Let's see how the markets react to this. Hope they are as calm as they were when Trump won.

EUR still down around 1% but is recovering from a steeper fall.  JPY, Gold and US treasuries up which is expected in a risk off situation.  Overall it is not that bad.  The markets has been expecting a No win for a while (perhaps not at this scale.)

On a global scale, i'm convinced it will be just a bump, but i'm more worried about bonds, especially my country's bonds. If they pass 4% and stay there... God help us.

[Mike88]

On a global scale, i'm convinced it will be just a bump, but i'm more worried about bonds, especially my country's bonds. If they pass 4% and stay there... God help us.

Portugal CDS have been steady for a while.  Main reason for increase in yields in Portugal gov debt has to do due to the Trump effect and the surge of the USD recently.  I doubt this will hurt the yields that much as the market already baked in a defeat for No.

They are steady but they are much higher than they were a year ago and any little shock could put them on the rise. Plus, this is high alert for the only credit agency who says we are not garbage.

[Mike88]

Hmmm... So things don't look good for Renzi? Could we see a resurrection of Berlusconi or will it be chaos as usual?

[Mike88]

Sicily regional election, Exit Poll:

36-40% Center-Right
33-37% Mov. 5 Stars
16-20% Center-Left
  6-10% Left

[Mike88]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Does anyone have links for Italian TV stations which won't be geoblocked? (ideally Italian TV not an English-language channel)

Thanks!

DC

Yeah, a poll closing time of 23:00 is absurd. Even 9pm or 10pm is too late.

The ideal opening times IMO are 8am to 5-6pm, so that the counting is done by 8-9pm and everyone can go to bed.

It's extremely idiotic to keep the polls open that long so that people have to count votes the whole night ...

The government will probably give a day-off to poll workers on Monday.

[Mike88]

The government will probably give a day-off to poll workers on Monday.

poll workers, are not government workers, they are chosen from the municipal electoral commission,
they work a few hours on saturday principally for sign and stamp the ballot papers,
they need to open the seat sunday on 7 am so probably they are on the seat almost 15 minutes before. they probably ended on monday night
in Lazio and Lombardia there are also regional elections so they back to seat to 2 pm for the counting of regional ballot papers. If they are public workers they have 3 day off, if they are private teorically have the same (or 3 day payed) but most ask only the monday

Yes, what i meant is that the government can justify your absence from work if you ask to.  

[Mike88]

Were there any polls with crosstabs that show differences between different demographic groups?

I found an article on POLITICO that has crosstabs by professional background and others: https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-angry-election-2018-anti-establishment/

Also, this study about how the Italian electorate see Europe and themselves is quite interesting and has some crosstabs: https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/EZ_eupinions_brief_Italy_27.02.2018.pdf