While this is uncharted territory and I cannot predict anything with complete certainty, I think I can confidently say Yankee and Cao both have huge incentives to make it be known at least privately that independence is off the table, and that greater autonomy is clearly something that the South's regional leadership can at least credibly claim a mandate of some kind for. But that does not mean that it will inevitably happen. Terra incognita, everyone!
I've been hearing whispers to the contrary with regard to our current President. Granted, it is hearsay and I cannot speak for him personally, so I welcome public forum clarification on the matter.
Yankee and I have been dueling for more than a decade, but we do have a core of commonalities and I feel confident in saying that the Past, Present and/or Future King of the Federalist Party would never endorse outright succession under any circumstances.
Problem is, how much sway does Yankee actually have on his membership? Given that his party voted for secession despite him personally voting No, and that YT won despite a number of higher-up federalists backing a write-in candidate, it does not seem that the King is controlling the commoner.