MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50%

[TheLeftwardTide]

McCaskill absolutely would have lost, even his weak campaign would have been enough to cost had it not been for the gaffe, his money absolutely dried up afterwards. He was leading, and beginning to pull away in some polls. In fact the only reason mccaskill won by so much is all the undecideds broke for her at the end.

Many Republicans were leading in 2012 until... well, they weren't. Think of Tommy Thompson or Rick Berg. Candidates don't win by 16 points just because of one gaffe of their opponent. Akin's campaign made her look like a moderate, which was far more devastating than anything Akin said. 2012 was a massive Democratic wave year, no Democratic incumbent (including Tester) was going to lose that year. Yeah, undecideds broke for her at the end, but undecideds broke Democratic virtually everywhere else as well. Republicans made a ton of mistakes in 2012, and 2018 is their chance to prove that they have learned the lessons from 2012 (because if they haven't, MO will probably the only state they flip - and they'll lose NV, AZ and probably one or two other seats at the same time). Don't let anyone tell you that Democrats can't flip the Senate in 2018, they can if Republicans take things for granted again.

The only flippable republican seats are AZ, NV, and UT. Saying Dems can win in TX, TN, NE, MS or WY is like saying Sheldon Whitehouse can lose reelection. Of course, if Jones pulls off the AL special and there's some other special election, then the Dems would have a shot, as long as they only lost MO - if Donnelly is losing, Dems probably aren't winning Utah either, and then it would be 4 pickups, 2 losses, which comes out to a 50-50 Collins Majority.

McCaskill surviving is more likely than Jones winning. The best path to a Democratic Senate majority is holding onto all incumbent seats + AZ + NV + TX/AL/AZ-McCain. The best realistic hope for the Democrats is a 50/50 Senate tie.

[TheLeftwardTide]

The fact that some Dems seriously think TX is even remotely in play is quite hilarious.

I don't think it's in play. That's why I said realistic hopes are to aim for a 50/50 Senate tie.