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December 05, 2020, 07:03:07 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50%
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Author Topic: MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50%  (Read 2857 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 01, 2017, 10:25:00 AM »

Senate

50% Josh Hawley (R)
45% Claire McCaskill (D, inc.)

Auditor

47% Todd Richardson (R)
43% Nicole Galloway (D, inc.)

Trump approval: 48/45 (+3)

Link.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2017, 10:25:46 AM »

Swim Claire! Swim!
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adrac
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« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2017, 10:31:42 AM »

Gonna be a tough one.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2017, 11:14:20 AM »

Tracking with Presidential approval.

She needs him to get to the low 30s/high 20s nationally to have a shot, assuming this poll is real and accurate.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2017, 11:19:57 AM »

Great poll!
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wifikitten
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2017, 12:48:39 PM »

Galloway is very unknown since she has never been elected statewide so it is good to see her above 40%.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2017, 01:01:35 PM »

Also, is this a reliable pollster or not?
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2017, 01:07:03 PM »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2017, 01:16:02 PM »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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Coraxion
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2017, 01:45:24 PM »

Junk poll.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2017, 01:49:02 PM »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

SadSadSad

FTFY
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2017, 01:51:36 PM »

Great Poll! Smiley
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2017, 01:57:59 PM »

This race isnt lost for McCaskill yet, but its gonna be a real tough one.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2017, 03:30:36 PM »

This looks a lot like the numbers I'm hearing from colleagues working in MO.

The RTW ballot initiative could wind up saving McCaskill in the long run.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2017, 03:42:17 PM »

Missouri is almost totally gone for Dems.

I mean, Hillary did better in Mississippi than Missouri.
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jimmie
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« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2017, 03:42:40 PM »

This looks a lot like the numbers I'm hearing from colleagues working in MO.

The RTW ballot initiative could wind up saving McCaskill in the long run.

I do not think McCaskill can win though. Her astrological transits on election night are not very good.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2017, 04:27:46 PM »


Declaring a race dead for the incumbent of an opposition party in a year likely to swing hard against the party in power is absolute bonkers. No amount of polling or ill-informed punditry will change that fact.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2017, 05:17:15 PM »
« Edited: September 01, 2017, 05:38:11 PM by MT Treasurer »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Blunt is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2022 if Trump wins reelection, but I think he'll retire anyway. As for this poll... McCaskill is a uniquely bad fit for the state, so not sure why so many people are surprised by this. I also disagree with the consensus that this race will be "very close and competitive", but we'll see. IN is looking a lot better for Ds than MO anyway IMO.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2017, 05:33:29 PM »


Declaring a race dead for the incumbent of an opposition party in a year likely to swing hard against the party in power is absolute bonkers. No amount of polling or ill-informed punditry will change that fact.

Your begging for the Missouri Democratic Party to be a thing is admirable, but pointless.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: September 01, 2017, 05:48:46 PM »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Blunt is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2022 if Trump wins reelection, but I think he'll retire anyway. As for this poll... McCaskill is a uniquely bad fit for the state, so not sure why so many people are surprised by this. I also disagree with the consensus that this race will be "very close and competitive", but we'll see. IN is looking a lot better for Ds than MO anyway IMO.

I won't be surprised at all if Donnelly pulls through. Unlike McCaskill he is a genuine moderate, and he might have won in '12 even without the rape gaffes.
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jimmie
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« Reply #20 on: September 01, 2017, 05:55:08 PM »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Blunt is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2022 if Trump wins reelection, but I think he'll retire anyway. As for this poll... McCaskill is a uniquely bad fit for the state, so not sure why so many people are surprised by this. I also disagree with the consensus that this race will be "very close and competitive", but we'll see. IN is looking a lot better for Ds than MO anyway IMO.

I won't be surprised at all if Donnelly pulls through. Unlike McCaskill he is a genuine moderate, and he might have won in '12 even without the rape gaffes.

Mccaskill would have defeated akin either way.  But I have said she will likely lose next year due to poor astrological transits.

Auditors race has a lot more unknowns and it's not even certain Todd Richardson will run.  But it's a race easier to localize and for what it is worth Galloway has very pleasant astrological transits on election night.
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Atlanta 1997 World Champs
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« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2017, 05:57:12 PM »
« Edited: September 01, 2017, 05:59:58 PM by bronz4141 »

I still think that McCaskill will win a third term in 2018, but it will be very close and more competitive than 2012 in a sense.

She has two strategies to win reelection in 2018:

Appeal to rural and suburban voters outside of STL and KC as she is doing with the town halls and meetings, of all races, or:

Re-energize the liberal, urban base in Columbia, Jefferson City, St. Louis, Kansas City. What electoral strategy does she use?

Will black voters vote for McCaskill again after her tepid 2014 response to Michael Brown's shooting?

Tilt R/Tossup.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2017, 05:58:20 PM »

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I dont think McCaskill beats Akin without the gaffe (and the publicity the gaffe got) at all. After that idiotic statement he also got crippled with fundraising.

As for the poll, no tabs no respect for the poll. But it does line up with what id expect, still no proof.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2017, 06:12:34 PM »

As much as I despise McCaskill, I believe she would have beaten Akin even without that gaffe (though it would have been closer - probably a 6- to 8-point win or so). People forget that this guy ran a terrible campaign even before the gaffe happened, and there's a reson why Akin was her preferred candidate from the very beginning. Also, no Democratic incumbent was really going to lose in 2012 anyway, except MAYBE Nelson in NE. Honestly, 2012 was an absolute disaster for Republicans at all levels.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2017, 06:49:06 PM »

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I dont think McCaskill beats Akin without the gaffe (and the publicity the gaffe got) at all. After that idiotic statement he also got crippled with fundraising.

As for the poll, no tabs no respect for the poll. But it does line up with what id expect, still no proof.
She outperformed the RCP polling average by almost 10 points. IIRC, when Akin was leading, he was only up by single digits.
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