|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 05, 2020, 06:22:08 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50%
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: MO-MOScout: GOP leading Senate and Auditor's race, Hawley at 50%  (Read 2748 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,337
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 01, 2017, 10:25:00 am »

Senate

50% Josh Hawley (R)
45% Claire McCaskill (D, inc.)

Auditor

47% Todd Richardson (R)
43% Nicole Galloway (D, inc.)

Trump approval: 48/45 (+3)

Link.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administrator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,669
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2017, 10:25:46 am »

Swim Claire! Swim!
Logged
adrac
adracman42
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 724


Political Matrix
E: -9.99, S: -9.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2017, 10:31:42 am »

Gonna be a tough one.
Logged
GlobeSoc
The walrus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,731


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2017, 11:14:20 am »

Tracking with Presidential approval.

She needs him to get to the low 30s/high 20s nationally to have a shot, assuming this poll is real and accurate.
Logged
krazen1211
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,376


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2017, 11:19:57 am »

Great poll!
Logged
wifikitten
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,114
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2017, 12:48:39 pm »

Galloway is very unknown since she has never been elected statewide so it is good to see her above 40%.
Logged
GlobeSoc
The walrus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,731


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2017, 01:01:35 pm »

Also, is this a reliable pollster or not?
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,527
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2017, 01:07:03 pm »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,054
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2017, 01:16:02 pm »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Logged
Coraxion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 908
Ethiopia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2017, 01:45:24 pm »

Junk poll.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,527
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2017, 01:49:02 pm »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

SadSadSad

FTFY
Logged
Not_A_Man
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,092
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2017, 01:51:36 pm »

Great Poll! Smiley
Logged
#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,967


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2017, 01:57:59 pm »

This race isnt lost for McCaskill yet, but its gonna be a real tough one.
Logged
Pollster
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,749


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2017, 03:30:36 pm »

This looks a lot like the numbers I'm hearing from colleagues working in MO.

The RTW ballot initiative could wind up saving McCaskill in the long run.
Logged
Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,307
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2017, 03:42:17 pm »

Missouri is almost totally gone for Dems.

I mean, Hillary did better in Mississippi than Missouri.
Logged
jimmie
jamespol
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,931


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2017, 03:42:40 pm »

This looks a lot like the numbers I'm hearing from colleagues working in MO.

The RTW ballot initiative could wind up saving McCaskill in the long run.

I do not think McCaskill can win though. Her astrological transits on election night are not very good.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,054
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2017, 04:27:46 pm »


Declaring a race dead for the incumbent of an opposition party in a year likely to swing hard against the party in power is absolute bonkers. No amount of polling or ill-informed punditry will change that fact.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,337
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2017, 05:17:15 pm »
« Edited: September 01, 2017, 05:38:11 pm by MT Treasurer »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Blunt is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2022 if Trump wins reelection, but I think he'll retire anyway. As for this poll... McCaskill is a uniquely bad fit for the state, so not sure why so many people are surprised by this. I also disagree with the consensus that this race will be "very close and competitive", but we'll see. IN is looking a lot better for Ds than MO anyway IMO.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,527
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2017, 05:33:29 pm »


Declaring a race dead for the incumbent of an opposition party in a year likely to swing hard against the party in power is absolute bonkers. No amount of polling or ill-informed punditry will change that fact.

Your begging for the Missouri Democratic Party to be a thing is admirable, but pointless.
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,527
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 01, 2017, 05:48:46 pm »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Blunt is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2022 if Trump wins reelection, but I think he'll retire anyway. As for this poll... McCaskill is a uniquely bad fit for the state, so not sure why so many people are surprised by this. I also disagree with the consensus that this race will be "very close and competitive", but we'll see. IN is looking a lot better for Ds than MO anyway IMO.

I won't be surprised at all if Donnelly pulls through. Unlike McCaskill he is a genuine moderate, and he might have won in '12 even without the rape gaffes.
Logged
jimmie
jamespol
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,931


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 01, 2017, 05:55:08 pm »

Here Lies the Missouri Democratic Party. At least they were taken out swiftly in just 2 election cycles.

Blunt is going to be extremely vulnerable in 2022 if Trump wins reelection, but I think he'll retire anyway. As for this poll... McCaskill is a uniquely bad fit for the state, so not sure why so many people are surprised by this. I also disagree with the consensus that this race will be "very close and competitive", but we'll see. IN is looking a lot better for Ds than MO anyway IMO.

I won't be surprised at all if Donnelly pulls through. Unlike McCaskill he is a genuine moderate, and he might have won in '12 even without the rape gaffes.

Mccaskill would have defeated akin either way.  But I have said she will likely lose next year due to poor astrological transits.

Auditors race has a lot more unknowns and it's not even certain Todd Richardson will run.  But it's a race easier to localize and for what it is worth Galloway has very pleasant astrological transits on election night.
Logged
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,103
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2017, 05:57:12 pm »
« Edited: September 01, 2017, 05:59:58 pm by bronz4141 »

I still think that McCaskill will win a third term in 2018, but it will be very close and more competitive than 2012 in a sense.

She has two strategies to win reelection in 2018:

Appeal to rural and suburban voters outside of STL and KC as she is doing with the town halls and meetings, of all races, or:

Re-energize the liberal, urban base in Columbia, Jefferson City, St. Louis, Kansas City. What electoral strategy does she use?

Will black voters vote for McCaskill again after her tepid 2014 response to Michael Brown's shooting?

Tilt R/Tossup.
Logged
Rjjr77
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,732
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2017, 05:58:20 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I dont think McCaskill beats Akin without the gaffe (and the publicity the gaffe got) at all. After that idiotic statement he also got crippled with fundraising.

As for the poll, no tabs no respect for the poll. But it does line up with what id expect, still no proof.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,337
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2017, 06:12:34 pm »

As much as I despise McCaskill, I believe she would have beaten Akin even without that gaffe (though it would have been closer - probably a 6- to 8-point win or so). People forget that this guy ran a terrible campaign even before the gaffe happened, and there's a reson why Akin was her preferred candidate from the very beginning. Also, no Democratic incumbent was really going to lose in 2012 anyway, except MAYBE Nelson in NE. Honestly, 2012 was an absolute disaster for Republicans at all levels.
Logged
Coraxion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 908
Ethiopia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2017, 06:49:06 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I dont think McCaskill beats Akin without the gaffe (and the publicity the gaffe got) at all. After that idiotic statement he also got crippled with fundraising.

As for the poll, no tabs no respect for the poll. But it does line up with what id expect, still no proof.
She outperformed the RCP polling average by almost 10 points. IIRC, when Akin was leading, he was only up by single digits.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.111 seconds with 14 queries.