I still think that McCaskill will win a third term in 2018, but it will be very close and more competitive than 2012 in a sense.
She has two strategies to win reelection in 2018:
Appeal to rural and suburban voters outside of STL and KC as she is doing with the town halls and meetings, of all races, or:
Re-energize the liberal, urban base in Columbia, Jefferson City, St. Louis, Kansas City. What electoral strategy does she use?
Will black voters vote for McCaskill again after her tepid 2014 response to Michael Brown's shooting?
Tilt R/Tossup.
You don't know the politics of Jefferson City very well.
Of course McCaskill will need to win some rural counties in order to stay competitive. I think she might be able to win if she carries only one third as many rural counties as in 2012, and she will probably need to win Jefferson COUNTY (southern suburbs of St. Louis).
Based on the turnout among black regions of St. Louis in 2016, I don't think that black turnout will be great next year either.
