When will the recession end?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I sometimes wonder if I have the only job which is still hiring like mad. Of course part of the reason for that is that we have a pretty high turnover among new hirees. In only about 4 months from when my training class started, half were already gone, and we're now down to only 7 out of 25 at the time. It's tough to tell only via tests or interviews if one can do the job though, so simply hiring a ton and then keeping only those who prove they can might be a good strategy.

Bad jobs don't stop being bad jobs when the economy goes south. And they're still plenty available!

[Sam Spade]

Thanks for the note, Moderate.

[opebo]

...the Obama administration will not be able to solve the country's problems, just as it became apparent that Jimmy Carter would not turn the country around by the end of 1977.

I don't dispute your critique of Obama, Beet, but 1977 was a fantastic year in the American economy.  Carter presided over economic troubles only at the very end of his term - '76, '77, and '78 were great years economically, and better than anything we've seen since.

[Beet]

...the Obama administration will not be able to solve the country's problems, just as it became apparent that Jimmy Carter would not turn the country around by the end of 1977.

I don't dispute your critique of Obama, Beet, but 1977 was a fantastic year in the American economy.  Carter presided over economic troubles only at the very end of his term - '76, '77, and '78 were great years economically, and better than anything we've seen since.

Do you have anything interesting to say?

[opebo]

Do you have anything interesting to say?

If you're not interested in inaccuracies in your posts, then, no I suppose not interesting to you.

[TeePee4Prez]

sometime around when i shoot myself in the head

Guess that means job search not successful?

The unfortunate side effect of seeking a job as a creative professional is that with such a job-seeker glut out there, employers can find exactly what they're looking for, and are then generally able to name their own price for it.

I had the inside track on a job at an architecture firm as a marketing manager, a position I held at another, larger firm in the area. I wound up getting passed over because they found someone who already had experience as marketing manager at an architecture firm.

I spoke with an expert (in the local Boston job market, anyway) a few months ago, and they reiterated what everyone else could tell you: The job market fell off a cliff late last year. They didn't see things getting much worse going forward, but they also didn't see things getting much better anytime soon. Permanent hirings are off, and companies are reluctant to even spend on temps.

Some companies have laid off people because they have to lest they bleed red ink; other companies have laid off people because everyone else around them has; and still others are just deciding to put a simple hiring freeze out there. Most job postings are for essential personnel only, and they're getting away with paying less. (Long term, this strategy stinks and slaughters employee morale, thus hurting productivity. But whatever, it's business' sworn duty to overreact to every economic downturn that comes along, making things that much worse.)

The job situation is not dire, at least in that I could probably find a job in a reasonable time frame if I lowered my standards.  The simple fact of the matter is that the unemployment payments I'm getting are generous enough to rule out most of the opportunities that I've run across. Thanks for the $25 stimulus bump, Big O. And thanks for covering 90% of my COBRA, Deval.

I've resigned myself to a long-term unemployment filled with occasional freelance work. That seems to be the new employment trend. Pay-as-you-go without a long-term contract.

I'm kinda in the same situation as an accountant.  Some of these companies both CPA firms and private industry are super specific about what they want and can name a crappy price for it.  2 years ago most people would laugh at employers who wanted the moon for 40-50K, but now it's common.  After taxes, maximum unemployment with the extra $50 every 2 weeks is a sweet deal.  I had a recruiter who tried to submit me for a great industry tax job and I had 90% of the qualification except for FASB 109 experience...  NEXT, but interestingly the job's still available.  I also found some employers were just posting sh**t for the purpose of "window shopping."

[The Duke]

I votyed Q4 because that is when GDP will stop shrinking, technically ending the recession's first dip.

Then the second wave will come.

Hey, how big does everyone think the sellof in the stock market will be once the !2 numbers come out and its obvious that things are not getting better?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Hey, how big does everyone think the sellof in the stock market will be once the !2 numbers come out and its obvious that things are not getting better?

We'll probably retest the lows of March, unfortunately, if we do not see any signs of a slowdown in the economic problems. It could be a quick and very nasty plunge to 6500.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Hey, how big does everyone think the sellof in the stock market will be once the !2 numbers come out and its obvious that things are not getting better?

We'll probably retest the lows of March, unfortunately, if we do not see any signs of a slowdown in the economic problems. It could be a quick and very nasty plunge to 6500.

I have no idea what news you two are listening to.  it seems that neither of you pay any attention to leading indicators and are simply focused the trailing

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Hey, how big does everyone think the sellof in the stock market will be once the !2 numbers come out and its obvious that things are not getting better?

We'll probably retest the lows of March, unfortunately, if we do not see any signs of a slowdown in the economic problems. It could be a quick and very nasty plunge to 6500.

I have no idea what news you two are listening to.  it seems that neither of you pay any attention to leading indicators and are simply focused the trailing

What leading indicators outside of the current market rally indicate we are turning the corner? There has been no slowing in job losses or GDP shrinkage. The consumer confidence was lower that expected. Keep in mind we have seen rallies like this before prior to another big leg down.

I'm not sold that we will see that other leg, but I am going to be cautious. I haven't seen many good signs that we are out of the woods yet. The financials seem to have stabilized to an extent, but there is the looming commercial real estate collapse that could happen in the future.

[Sbane]

Hey, how big does everyone think the sellof in the stock market will be once the !2 numbers come out and its obvious that things are not getting better?

We'll probably retest the lows of March, unfortunately, if we do not see any signs of a slowdown in the economic problems. It could be a quick and very nasty plunge to 6500.

I have no idea what news you two are listening to.  it seems that neither of you pay any attention to leading indicators and are simply focused the trailing

I'm not sold that we will see that other leg, but I am going to be cautious. I haven't seen many good signs that we are out of the woods yet. The financials seem to have stabilized to an extent, but there is the looming commercial real estate collapse that could happen in the future.

What looming real estate collapse? You mean the one that has already happened and is currently running out its course. Prices have fallen about 75% in some California locales. Prices won't be going down much and all the good deals are getting snapped up in the matter of days, at least in the bay area. Certain desert areas of socal and Florida probably have some more misery to go through but even there the worst is over. The biggest thing that will drag down prices from now on will be the short sales.These will be located all over the market, upscale and downscale, and should affect the upscale markets more since they haven't been ravaged by foreclosures yet. Still most of the value in those markets has already been lost and the amount the market falls can be manipulated by the banks. It might even end up stabilizing some banks when candidates for foreclosure end up selling their house to a properly financed buyer. The bank still loses money but not as much as might have been predicted when all hell broke loose last year.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Hey, how big does everyone think the sellof in the stock market will be once the !2 numbers come out and its obvious that things are not getting better?

We'll probably retest the lows of March, unfortunately, if we do not see any signs of a slowdown in the economic problems. It could be a quick and very nasty plunge to 6500.

I have no idea what news you two are listening to.  it seems that neither of you pay any attention to leading indicators and are simply focused the trailing

What leading indicators outside of the current market rally indicate we are turning the corner? There has been no slowing in job losses or GDP shrinkage. The consumer confidence was lower that expected. Keep in mind we have seen rallies like this before prior to another big leg down.

If you take a composite of the following LEADING indicators (M2, price of industrial materials, initial unemployment insurance claims, mortgage applications, S&P 500, 10-yr Treasury bond yield, and bond quality spread), you'd see that we're clearly heading for a recovery in Q3.

Or, if you want to look at the composite of even more forward looking leading indicators (new building permits, money supply plus mutual funds, corporate bond yields, services inflation, manufacturing productivity growth, consumer expectations, etc), they tell the same story - recovery is just around the corner.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I've felt a bit more optimistic as of late, but I think that may just be a function of the nice weather.

[MK]

I clicked after 2010, but reality is maybe never. Just sign of the times and this country is slowly making the shift to Poor or Rich.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[Cliched Hackish Version of Sam Spade]When our morals get better and more like me, god dammit! Spoiled Kids... [/CHVOSS]

[opebo]

[Cliched Hackish Version of Sam Spade]When our morals get better and more like me, god dammit! Spoiled Kids... [/CHVOSS]

Hypocritical considering Spade is a rich.  (I don't know if he is a kid or an old though).

[Frodo]

According to a number of Wall Street analysts, this August.  Being a bit more pessimistic, I would guess either the 4th quarter of this year or the 1st quarter of the next year. 

Having looked at the federal fiscal year definition, I will alter my prediction (obviously I was thinking of late fall or early winter when typing this).  So, here is my correction: the recession will end in the 1st quarter of the 2009-2010 fiscal year.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

A recovery in Q3 or early Q4 is pretty much already baked-in.  The longivity of it is still a question since it is almost impossible to look beyond a 6 month timeline.

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[opebo]

I clicked after 2010, but reality is maybe never. Just sign of the times and this country is slowly making the shift to Poor or Rich.

Yes, it is accurate to say that the recession will end for most americans only when they die.  But it will end within a year or so for the owners.