VA Early Voting #s

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax and NOVA now well above the statewide average and trending up. 

SW and downstate still way below the statewide average and stagnant.

Definitely looks like Dems aren't engaged.

[Devils30]

Fairfax and NOVA now well above the statewide average and trending up. 

SW and downstate still way below the statewide average and stagnant.

Definitely looks like Dems aren't engaged.

I go back and forth if this is a true tossup race or not. There is a bit of an Ohio 2020 vibe where everyone assumes it's a close race but turns out reverting to state partisanship of the previous elections.

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax and NOVA now well above the statewide average and trending up. 

SW and downstate still way below the statewide average and stagnant.

Definitely looks like Dems aren't engaged.

I go back and forth if this is a true tossup race or not. There is a bit of an Ohio 2020 vibe where everyone assumes it's a close race but turns out reverting to state partisanship of the previous elections.

bingo. 

[wbrocks67]

As of 10/24
Early in person votes: 460,942
Mail ballots returned: 204,797
Total = 665,739

Looks like there is also a clear backlog of mail ballots to count since those #s have not budged a whole lot in recent days.

As of 10/25

Early in person votes: 506,287
Mail ballots returned: 218,678
Total: 724,965

[Non Swing Voter]

NOVA now clearly surging (as expected).

Falls Church: 19% turnout
Fairfax City: 17%
Arlington: 15%
Alexandria: 15%
Manassas: 14%
Fairfax: 13%
Prince William: 13%
Loudoun: 12%

Virginia: 12%

Buchanan (SWVA): 4%
Lee (SWVA): 4%

[wbrocks67]

Early voting is only one piece of the puzzle, but I'm not sure you can accurately say "Dems are not energized" or any of these narratives when turnout is at, a minimum, very decent in a bunch of blue areas.

[Non Swing Voter]

Early voting is only one piece of the puzzle, but I'm not sure you can accurately say "Dems are not energized" or any of these narratives when turnout is at, a minimum, very decent in a bunch of blue areas.

I would like to know how blue avatars continue to say Dems are not engaged when turnout is literally 4x higher in NOVA than in SWVA right now.  Millennial DC commuters who live in Falls Church are not voting for Youngkin.

[Xing]

Fairfax and NOVA now well above the statewide average and trending up. 

SW and downstate still way below the statewide average and stagnant.

Definitely looks like Dems aren't engaged.

But you see, swaths of "neoliberal hawkish" Biden voters in NoVA are going to vote for Youngkin (who's totally a moderate) because something something school boards and "CRT."

[Non Swing Voter]

Fairfax and NOVA now well above the statewide average and trending up. 

SW and downstate still way below the statewide average and stagnant.

Definitely looks like Dems aren't engaged.

But you see, swaths of "neoliberal hawkish" Biden voters in NoVA are going to vote for Youngkin (who's totally a moderate) because something something school boards and "CRT."

We laugh but this is literally what they think is going to happen.  The blue avatars on here literally think most of the population of NOVA works for the federal gov. and specifically the military.  NOVA has literally 4-5x the population of DC itself.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The fact that we’re even a little unsure how this race will turn out is a clear sign of how horrible the environment is for Democrats.  Youngkin is a C-list candidate running a D-/F+ campaign and yet he’s running neck-in-neck with our best possible recruit largely b/c of how toxic the Democratic brand is right now.  This should be a blowout.  The fact that it isn’t tells you everything you need to know and pretending otherwise is counterproductive wishcasting.  If the Democrats don’t get their act together in a big way, really quickly - and that ship may have already sailed - then we’re probably looking at a 1994/2010 environment except with less ground left to lose

[Non Swing Voter]

The fact that we’re even a little unsure how this race will turn out is a clear sign of how horrible the environment is for Democrats.  Youngkin is a C-list candidate running a D-/F+ campaign and yet he’s running neck-in-neck with our best possible recruit largely b/c of how toxic the Democratic brand is right now.  This should be a blowout.  The fact that it isn’t tells you everything you need to know and pretending otherwise is counterproductive wishcasting.  If the Democrats don’t get their act together in a big way, really quickly - and that ship may have already sailed - then we’re probably looking at a 1994/2010 environment except with less ground left to lose

People in the know aren't even a little unsure.  Just because blue avatars and "analysts" on twitter who were horrendously off in 2020 say so, doesn't make it reality.  No votes have been counted.  I heard the same thing about the CA recall race.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that we’re even a little unsure how this race will turn out is a clear sign of how horrible the environment is for Democrats.  Youngkin is a C-list candidate running a D-/F+ campaign and yet he’s running neck-in-neck with our best possible recruit largely b/c of how toxic the Democratic brand is right now.  This should be a blowout.  The fact that it isn’t tells you everything you need to know and pretending otherwise is counterproductive wishcasting.  If the Democrats don’t get their act together in a big way, really quickly - and that ship may have already sailed - then we’re probably looking at a 1994/2010 environment except with less ground left to lose

I mean, this is still a race in an off year midterm with the same party in the White House. I don't think this was ever predicted to be a 'blowout' of any imagination.

[Non Swing Voter]

And no hot takes have mentioned how Youngkin has dumped millions and millions of dollars into this race and has barely moved the needle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

I'm sorry what? Why would McAuliffe win with a bigger margin than Northam and Biden himself in a Biden midterm election? This is just trolling at this point.

[Rookie Yinzer]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Y’all are boring. No new schticks huh?

[It’s so Joever]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

It’s hopeless, the Republican dictatorship followed by a civil war timeline is coming at this point.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

7 days before polls close: "If TMac doesn't win by 10%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

10 seconds before polls close: "Actually, if TMac doesn't win by 20%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

TMac projected to win Virginia by 15%: "Welp, Democrats are in trouble"

[Person Man]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

It’s hopeless, the Republican dictatorship followed by a civil war timeline is coming at this point.

…the ensuing nuclear winter/autumn might be nice though.

[It’s so Joever]

7 days before polls close: "If TMac doesn't win by 10%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

10 seconds before polls close: "Actually, if TMac doesn't win by 20%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

TMac projected to win Virginia by 15%: "Welp, Democrats are in trouble"

When will you acknowledge reality?

[Non Swing Voter]

7 days before polls close: "If TMac doesn't win by 10%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

10 seconds before polls close: "Actually, if TMac doesn't win by 20%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

TMac projected to win Virginia by 15%: "Welp, Democrats are in trouble"

Well TMac's not gonna win by Virginia.  But you could replace VA with "CA" and this basically explains the timeline of the CA recall bulls*** we were all subjected to for a month here.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

7 days before polls close: "If TMac doesn't win by 10%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

10 seconds before polls close: "Actually, if TMac doesn't win by 20%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

TMac projected to win Virginia by 15%: "Welp, Democrats are in trouble"

Well TMac's not gonna win by Virginia.  But you could replace VA with "CA" and this basically explains the timeline of the CA recall bulls*** we were all subjected to for a month here.

Oh I know. But TMac could beat everyone's expectations and win by double-digits yet even that would be considered "catastrophic" because reasons.

It's almost like this race doesn't matter in regards to 2022 because folks will just regress to their preconceived notions anyway.

[Non Swing Voter]

7 days before polls close: "If TMac doesn't win by 10%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

10 seconds before polls close: "Actually, if TMac doesn't win by 20%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

TMac projected to win Virginia by 15%: "Welp, Democrats are in trouble"

Well TMac's not gonna win by Virginia.  But you could replace VA with "CA" and this basically explains the timeline of the CA recall bulls*** we were all subjected to for a month here.

Oh I know. But TMac could beat everyone's expectations and win by double-digits yet even that would be considered "catastrophic" because reasons.

It's almost like this race doesn't matter in regards to 2022 because folks will just regress to their preconceived notions anyway.

Yup.  The same blue avatars were saying "I'm looking at the margins in SoCal for 2022."  When the margins were basically identical to 2020, they just totally forgot about the CA results and have moved on to Virginia.  The entire GOP is in lockstep with Trump's mindset and willful ignorance of reality.

[Non Swing Voter]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

[Fuzzy Bear]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.