Polish Politics and Elections

[M0096]

One week before local election:
All non-PiSian legislatures (sejmiki) are safe non-PiS majority.
Lower Silesia is safe flip from PiS-BS to KO-TD or KO-Left.
Also Łódź Voivodeship is likely flip from PiS to government coalition.
Lesser Poland, Holy Cross, Podlachia and Lublin Voivodeship are toss-ups.
Subcarpathia is likely PiS hold, but there could be surprise.

The most likely bellwether is Lesser Poland.

The biggest cities with competitive mayoral elections are Cracow and Wrocław.
In Cracow incumbent retired, due to age and hopeless polls results. 9 candidates are running and 3 of them could advance to runoff. The independent leftist tops the polls and there is a bitter fight for 2nd place between KO and PiS candidates.
In Wrocław KO refused to endorse incumbent (but also don't have own candidate), because of Collegium Humanum affair. If non-PiSian candidate advance to runoff, the election will be interesting.

[M0096]

Local election today:

Turnout at 12 pm - 16,52%.
6% less than 2023 parliamentary election, but 1% more than 2018 local election.

Traditionally, in the morning better in rural areas. The best turnout in Podlachia (19,13%) and the worst in Opole voivodeship (14,23%).

[Oryxslayer]

National polling right now is approximately:

PO+: 30 to 35%
PiS+" 25% to 31%
PSL/PL2050: 11% to 16%
Lewica: 8% to 10%
Konfederacja : 8% to 11%

Obviously the context in local situations is different, but for precisely that reason I'm most interested in the results for Hołownia's allied parties. They have seemingly become more electorally viable since the parliamentary election, and a string of successes through the various contests from now until 2025 will likely position Hołownia as the initial presidential favorite.

[Germany1994]

Let´s hope that PiS gets another slap in the face.

Will we get some Exit Polls for mayoral races in the big cities??

[M0096]

Exit polls (for legislatures (sejmiki wojewódzkie) and mayors of the biggest cities) will be held immediately after the polls close (9pm CEST).

[M0096]

Turnout at 5 pm - 39,4%
18% less than 2023 parliamentary election and 2% less than 2018 local election.

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777050343295095109

[Germany1994]

What about the cities?? I only read that in Warsaw Trzaskowsk was reelected in a landslide with almost 60 % according to the exit poll.

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/tvp_info/status/1777051246672654757

For Exit Polls in the cities:
https://twitter.com/tvn24

[Germany1994]

https://twitter.com/tvp_info/status/1777051246672654757
For Exit Polls in the cities:
https://twitter.com/tvn24

Too bad that there´re no polls for Poznan and Lodz. 

[Keep Calm and ...]

For Poznan?
https://twitter.com/TelewizjaWTK/status/1777049012782133295

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777056323651133667
https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777056327178629487

[Germany1994]

For Poznan?
https://twitter.com/TelewizjaWTK/status/1777049012782133295
https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777056323651133667
https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777056327178629487

It´ll be an easy win for the incubent mayor I guess since PiS is doing even more terribly in Poznan then in most other big cities.

[Oryxslayer]

Just to confirm: everything so far is just exits right?

I'm only asking cause there is no data immediately, apparent besides turnout on the National Site which was slow if one recalls last year. However, should I be looking elsewhere either a press page or local sites since this is not a national election?

[M0096]

The official results will be on the National Site. The first results from the smallest communities will be in a few hours and the last on Tuesday.

[Oryxslayer]

Some Voivodeship results. Despite there being 99.xx% of polling stations reporting, the natyional site isn't showing results unless 100% is in. So only a few are done:

Opole, In Silesia:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777279309469646951

Kuyavian-Pomerania, south of Gdansk:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777304238982402247


Lubusz, on the border with Germany:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777318299904139589

Podlaskie, on the border with Belorussia:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777318305377734922

[Oryxslayer]

Podkarpackie, Southeastern corner, one of the PiS's best areas:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777327615419748398

AKA the Katowice urban area:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777327620834607572

Lublin, also a Southeast PiS stronghold, even if the city of of the same name diverges from the rest of the region:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777338883547463896

Lower Silesia, Southwest corner:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777353059426824254

AKA Krakow plus the much more PiS surroundings:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777353065642795271

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems like PiS did slightly better than expected but nothing too alarming?

[Oryxslayer]

This is the Gdansk region:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777378134934860045

Between Katowice and Warsaw, the Lodz region was a battleground target. PiS dominates the areas outside the urban center proper, whereas the governing parties won the urban region in 2023:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777378129637425628

Warmia–Mazury is the bit of the country once a part of East Prussia in the northeast:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777378140278407297

Western interior:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777378145445752879



The three missing from this total are the PiS stronghold of Świętokrzyskie/Holy Cross, the PO stronghold of West Pomerania, and Mazovia - which Warsaw plus her rural hinterlands. Mazovia though did finish recently:

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777399563763974595

Seems like PiS did slightly better than expected but nothing too alarming?

Which means at the end of the day the results nationally for the Voivodship councils are going to be very close to the 2023 result. PiS ahead but not by much, and the combined governing parties with a solid majority over them. That means that overall the government is set to expand it's local allies, with 11/16 councils.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777414854095085820

Yep, very close to 2023. One could even say no real changes since the only beneficiaries of vote swings were the multitude of minor tickets that can't really make an effort in a national election. Compared to those results:

PiS+: -1.3%
PO+: -0.1%
PSL/PL2050: -0.2%
Lewica: -2.3%
Konfederacja: No Change

BS (localist group): +1.1%
German Minority Group: +0.3%

[Epaminondas]

In the same way the Republicans have locked up 46% of the US voters, PiS has managed to harden its base to 34% of the electorate come hell or high water.

The party fragmentation makes rooting out PiS from power nearly impossible, except if:
- Konfederacija start eating into PiS margins
- Lewica leadership considers a merger with PO under a new name

Which is likelier?

[crals]

In the same way the Republicans have locked up 46% of the US voters, PiS has managed to harden its base to 34% of the electorate come hell or high water.

The party fragmentation makes rooting out PiS from power nearly impossible, except if:
- Konfederacija start eating into PiS margins
- Lewica leadership considers a merger with PO under a new name

Which is likelier?

34% is not enough to win a majority. PiS has been rooted out of power without either of those happening.

[M0096]

In the same way the Republicans have locked up 46% of the US voters, PiS has managed to harden its base to 34% of the electorate come hell or high water.

The party fragmentation makes rooting out PiS from power nearly impossible, except if:
- Konfederacija start eating into PiS margins
- Lewica leadership considers a merger with PO under a new name

Which is likelier?

The most likely scenario:
New Left joins KO (coalition of PO and minor parties) as minor member or merge with iPL, which is leftist party in KO. I don't think New Left is important enough to change name of coalition, when they join. After merger of KO and New Left, Left Together will be the only leftist party, which is independent from KO. They would focused on economic left issues.

I can't exclude the first scenario, because PiS victory in local election was pretty pyrrhic and their leadership will likely draw wrong conclusions.

The turnout structure was very favorable to PiS. Turnout in cities and among youth was terrible low. With normal turnout structure, which is more likely to happen in European election, PiS would finish with less than 25%. The good result of PiS in Sejmik election was caused by increased polarisation. PSL lost almost all of national-PiS and local-PSL voters, which was seen as PiS gains in Holy Cross and Lublin voivodeships.

[Epaminondas]

34% is not enough to win a majority. PiS has been rooted out of power without either of those happening.

In a parliamentary system with rivals winning 30% and 15% but refusing to merge, it might be possible with a few lucky breaks in split percentages.

If I remember, in 2023 PiS got the absolute majority of parliament seats in Lublin and Białystok with only ~42% of the vote there.

[Storr]

Changes in Voivodeship council majorities from 2018 to 2024:

Lower Silesia: PiS-BS --> KO-TD
Łódź            : PiS --> KO-TD-Lewica

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1777414856708166011/photo/1

[Antonio the Sixth]

34% is not enough to win a majority. PiS has been rooted out of power without either of those happening.

In a parliamentary system with rivals winning 30% and 15% but refusing to merge, it might be possible with a few lucky breaks in split percentages.

If I remember, in 2023 PiS got the absolute majority of parliament seats in Lublin and Białystok with only ~42% of the vote there.

34% is a long way from 42%.

We all know that PiS can win with around 40% of the vote. We've seen it happen twice in recent memory. Winning with the low 30s is something that could only happen if the Polish party system fragments far beyond its current state, when if anything it's been consolidating.