Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Virginiá]

It was kind of thrilling to see if he would reach the depths of Nixon and 2nd term Bush, but his approvals are so stable that it's become very boring to watch this. It also seems unprecedented for how stable his numbers are. I mean, even the strong disapproval has been locked in more or less.

Considering Trump chews through what should be presidency-ending scandals every week, it's fair to say that one of the only plausible ways to make these numbers budge is a recession.

[Virginiá]

Honestly, I think they could end up budging due to Trump interacting with a Democratic Congress, but I think it might help him more than hurt him. Giving him Pelosi-Schumer to play off of rather than unified GOP control which just highlights how incompetent and ineffectual he is.

I've been wondering a lot about this, and I'm still not sure. On one hand, yes, he can blame stuff on Democrats in Congress, sure. But on the other hand, there are probably going to be a lot of investigations into his administration. Knowing what we know about Trump, it's very possible that scandals could end up offsetting any gains he may have from the blame game with Congress. But I'm also just not sure how effective it is to try and pass the buck to Congress. Americans don't seem to care about anyone but the president. I imagine that is why cable news isn't actually about news anymore, but rather 24/7 coverage of what the president says and does.

[Virginiá]

Popularity =/= NPV share. His favorability was at 38.7% when he won 46.1% of the NPV.

Sure, comparisons to his 2016 favorability will be relevant if he draws another opponent as unpopular as he is or manages to drag them down to his level, which depending on the candidate, will not be that easy.

Popularity/approvals/favorables still matter. It's just that 2016 taught us that when you pit two candidates against each other who are about as unpopular as the other, the one that is slightly more popular is not guaranteed to win.

[Virginiá]

I don't remember her exact favorability average in the run up to election day, but I do recall that it was in the dumps but higher than Trump's.

They really weren’t that close though. Hillary got much closer to her favorability in terms of NPV than Trump did. Trump won like 70% of those who disapproved of them both.

And I'm sure there are reasons for that, and maybe even influenced a good bit by the Comey stuff and the general swing of the news cycle against Clinton at the end, but my point is still the same: His approval ratings and favorable numbers still matter. Mikado's post was not wrong, at least in the sense that the Trump's approvals will weigh on his electoral performance. This idea that because Trump was unpopular when he won the electoral college in 2016, that his approvals no longer matter, really needs to die. It ignores the other half of the equation of 2016.

If Trump is still unpopular in 2020 like he is now (or worse), and he goes against a Democrat in 2020 who is modestly popular like past non-Hillary candidates, it's going to hurt him, and given that he barely won his first election, there is a good chance it'll deny him a 2nd term. He really needs to get those approvals up above or at 50 by election day.

[Virginiá]

I hate to burst your bubble here, but Dems have only nominated two “popular” candidates in the past 50 years.

Candidates:

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Any of those favorable/approve numbers save for 1992 (assuming his election week #s were poor) and 2004 would do, and in Obama's case, would do extremely well. And even for someone with Kerry's numbers, which are still comfortably better than Trump's average, there are a number of things that Trump has to deal with that he didn't in 2016, a fired up Democratic base for one. Second, he actually has a record to run on this time, and it's not pure roses, particularly with the tariffs and healthcare issues. Third, it's unlikely his opponent will be dogged by constant scandal and an FBI investigation literally right up to election day, whereas Trump is a walking scandal machine, and has been every single day since he announced in 2015. It's actually kind of amazing how reliably controversial he has been.

There was a reason a lot of hay was made about the historic nature of the unpopularity of 2016's candidates. The fact is, candidates generally aren't that disliked before even being elected. Sure, you can get someone who is slightly more disliked than liked (eg Kerry / Romney), but nothing on the scale of Hillary or Donald.


So my point still stands: If Trump wants to get reelected, he ought to work hard to bring his approval rating up. Otherwise, he's risking defeat. It's not like it will take another Obama 2008 or Reagan scenario to topple him if his numbers are low.

[Virginiá]

I don't think Trump's approval will ever rise above 45% but I'm still worried. What guarantee do we have that he won't drag his opponent down? Trump's path to reelection isn't a positive campaign campaign and a message of keeping peace and prosperity (though a good economy would certainly help), it's turning out the 40% core support he has and dragging his opponent down so that 8-10% of the electorate will hate his opponent even more than they hate Trump (and then hope the EC bails him out). I can totally see that happen if Harris or Warren is the nominee. Heck, I'd probably be part of the 8-10% if Sanders or Warren is the nominee .

He could end up dragging them down, but what I meant was that he isn't some master of slime who can tarnish anyone's image beyond repair, even if he spends a lot of time trying. It's debatable how much damage he himself was responsible for with Clinton, as she created most of her own problems either from slip-ups on the trail or actions during her tenure as SoS, of which led to an FBI investigation that dogged her the entire time she was campaigning. If the 2020 Democratic candidate doesn't have any major scandals and no major slip-ups during the campaign trail, it's going to be hard for Trump to turn them into a pariah beyond the core of his base (those who strongly approve of him, which is significantly less than 40 in many polls). I think his influence is weaker beyond that part of his base, and it will take more than just him running his mouth to push them to hate someone.

Just my 2 cents, though.

[Virginiá]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

[Virginiá]

He actually has higher favorables than he did on election night 2016, when he was in the 30s. The key is (1) timing is everything. We saw that when the Comey Letter was released 11 days before election day. A poll over 2 years out says nothing. If he gets a poll like this 2 days out, then yeah, he's in trouble. But there's a big difference between a year and a day. (2) He will be running against an actual opponent. An election is not a referendum on Trump but a choice between two people. Of course it's easy to say you're dissatisfied with him because in your mind, you've got the image of a perfect, ideal leader who doesn't exist. They don't exist because in everyone's mind, that perfect, ideal leader is different. But it's not until that ideality manifests itself that this becomes apparent.

Well that was the point of why I said "if he keeps getting polls like these." His favorables are higher, but they don't need to be in the 30s for him to get the same or even less votes. All it means is that some of the people who didn't like him but voted for him anyway are now saying they like him. And yes, of course the candidate matters. I think Democrats have a handful of people who could beat him as it stands now, but no idea if they'd be the nominees (and consensus on these people is hardly universal either).

[Virginiá]

Trump surging, #RedWave, etc etc

[Virginiá]

True.  However, with the ever increasing insecurities of many state’s voting machines (due solely to Republican ineffectuality), I’m concerned that Russia’s role in 2020 will be far more impactful than in 2016.

At least this time everyone is aware of what is going on and tech companies are working to fight disinformation/meddling campaigns. There is an immense amount of pressure on them from the left, and they seem to be responding to that. Also, while I guess it's too much to ask of the Trump administration to even sign a relatively neutral election security bill (something that should be non-partisan), if Democrats flip the House and/or Senate this cycle, they might be able to force some sort of compromise legislation that would help lock down 2020's election, at least partly. Finally, newly-empowered Democratic state lawmakers/Governors can also move to secure their own networks and voting machines in the run up to 2020.

So things are happening, it's just lacking in many ways because of a federal government that actually seems to be welcoming foreign powers in what I imagine is an effort to prop up Trump's reelection bid. Either that, or this is entirely because Trump believes any acknowledgement that the elections need to be secured is somehow tactic admission that his 2016 win might not be legitimate, so he refuses to do any of it. Probably a combination of both, actually.

The next sane president we get is going to have a lot of work to do to get Russia out of our affairs. I just hope it is someone who is willing to actually do what is necessary.

[Virginiá]

Nice speech, but the thing is that the Dems aren't taking the House without winning the generic ballot by 6-7%. Trump's approval rating getting back up to 44% by Election Day could have a significant impact on the House PV.

And frankly, for all the obituaries that were written for Trump and the Republicans in October 2016, anybody who is counting their chickens in the second week of September is a real idiot.

Eh, I think Cook (or was it Wasserman?) had it right when he said that waves can remain the same or even grow larger, but they never reverse, especially in the last weeks of an election. There are no examples of that ever happening.

I don't expect everyone to agree, but personally I think that expecting some sort of last minute swing back to Republicans is foolhardy. Even just saying it's possible doesn't seem right. That isn't in line with how waves have played out in the past. If anything, the bottom is more likely to fall out for Republicans in a few weeks than anything else.

[Virginiá]

Gallup

44(+1)
51 (-2)

This is Trump's best result in this poll since mid-June (right after his meeting with Kim Jong Un).

Just in time for the midterms. Very similar to his 2016 strategy. Laying low and letting his numbers slowly rise.

Hasn't helped in the GCB.

[Virginiá]

Hasn't helped in the GCB.

Has helped bigly in the Senate.

That's a reasonable take, given where most of the competitive seats are. But it's also a really mainstream media-like view of the race, where only Congress (or worse, one chamber of Congress) matters. There are still tons of gubernatorial/statewide office races, legislative elections, local elections and obviously the House. So the GCB being where it is, is pretty bad for Republicans as a whole.

The perception of him being safe encourages people to turn out to add a congressional check on him.

The number of people who actually vote based on wanting a "check" on the president is probably a lot smaller than assumed. I'm sure they exist in non-neglible numbers, but every midterm this theme is constantly trumpeted around like voters are all well-informed, rationale people. The vast majority of Trump supporters will vote Republican for most offices and the vast majority of Democrats will vote for Democrats. Meanwhile, voters Trump has alienated will vote against Trump/Republicans not necessarily because they just want a "check" but because they don't like him anymore (or never did at all) and are punishing him and his party, and will probably vote against him in 2020 if they turn out to vote.

[Virginiá]

Looking at the internals of the nbc/wsj poll, man is that healthcare failure for the GOP hurting them

They lead by 15 points on economy, 17 on trade, yet loss by 18 on HC issue

“It’s not just economy, stupid”

Not in midterms, but presidential elections it will be (at least more than it is now).

[Virginiá]

I'm confused - we aren't even close to maxing out the page limit on the old thread.

[Virginiá]

Alright, fair enough. But fwiw I think it's a bad idea to just keep changing threads when it's not necessary, at least concerning continuity in threads. It's bad enough we have to adhere to a 2k post limit.

[Virginiá]

RIP

Gallup retreats from political polling again under new leadership

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/21/gallup-political-polling-leadership-1072151

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Probably another major factor - Trump's extraordinarily stubborn range of approvals:

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By 2020, Gallup will probably switch to a quarterly basis while Rasmussen ups its polling to 3 times daily

[Virginiá]

New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=318051.0