IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

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What Kirk should fear is a competent Democrat from downstate running against him. Three names quickly come to mind that fit that profile: Cheri Bustos, Mike Frerichs, and Sheila Simon. Any part of downstate being peeled away would be fatal (even if Frerichs loses to Cross, notice how close he came in 2014 of all years) -- Republicans need to landslide outside of the Chicago area to win. There are competent Chicagoland candidates -- Tom Dart and Mike Quigley are being bandied about, and I think they're both possibilities -- but they don't start with this key advantage of being able to make a play for "usually-statewide-Republican" voters from the start.

IL-SEN will be the AR-SEN of that cycle, it will require a lot less money with a Madigan run.

Madigan has declined to run statewide three times in a row (IL-Gov-'10, IL-Sen-'10, IL-Gov-'14). In no case was she ever pushed out by a stronger candidate -- she simply chose not to run. Word is she wants to be Governor, but is waiting either for an optimal year or for Speaker Madigan to retire first. I really doubt Madigan will run.

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Actually kind of excited to see Walsh run and to see Kirk destroy him. Illinois has a ridiculous, super-early primary (in, I think, February), so it shouldn't do Kirk any lasting damage, strengthen his moderate credentials, and Walsh's defeat would rule him out as a candidate in Illinois ever again.

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Duckworth may run, but again I think she's way overrated as a candidate. The strongest candidate in the HoR delegation, for Democrats, is Bustos. (The strongest of the statewide officials is obviously Madigan, then White, but neither of them will run, and past that Frerichs).

My pick would be Foster, he already beat a moderate Judy Biggert, Tammy Duckworth beat Joe Walsh a tea partier.  

Biggert was 75 and past her prime. Foster beat Biggert 58/42, but he beat a state Rep just 53/47 in 2014; by contrast Duckworth beat Walsh 55/45 and then a total no-name 56/44 in 2014. Their districts are identical PVI.

As another note, in a less-Democratic district than either Bustos beat a new but fairly strong incumbent 53/47 in 2012, and then faced another legitimate challenge in 2014 and beat him back 55/45. That seems to me to be a stronger record than Foster's or Duckworth's.

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In another district, Hassert's district,  Foster beat Oberweis, and then lost it in 2010. If he can beat Oberweis and Biggert, he can beat Kirk. I want Madigan and Bustos and Foster to run.

Are you calling Oberweis a competent candidate? LOL.

I'm kinda sympathetic to Oberweis, since he had the nomination basically stolen from him and given to an insane person from Maryland in 2004, but the fact remains that this is his electoral record: a lost Senate primary in 2002, a lost Senate primary in 2004 (though considering the winner dropped out, he kind of deserved the nomination, but realistically he would still've lost the general election to Obama), a lost gubernatorial primary in 2006, a lost special House race in early 2008, a lost House race in 2008, a successful state Senate campaign in 2012, and then a lost Senate race in 2014. The man has waged six campaigns above the state Senate level and none have been successful.