IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

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I dunno man, I think the Cerro Gordo Trump/Greenfield #populists will be out in full force in 2022. Tilt R at most tbh, maybe Republicans should prioritize AZ/CO/NV over this one.

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imo pat grassley drops out if fink runs this ad:

If she runs that ad, the GOP will probably have to disband.

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Sand running for Senate would be a fool’s errand. He’s unlikely to win re-election as it is, but why would he choose a 0% chance of winning over a chance which is probably slightly above 0%?

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Bye, Low Energy Chuck.



Only question is, will Randy Feenstra even bother running for re-election, when it's clear that Empress Abby's coattails will cause him to lose by more than Joseph Cao?

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Finkenauer will be crushed by Grassley, like all of his prior opponents, and assuming that he runs again-which it seems like he is going to at this point. The only question is whether or not she will manage to hold him under 60%.

Thank you for saying what needs to be said. The memes need to stop.

Why? It's not like there's much else to discuss about this race.

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Through a very reliable source and friend of mine who’s involved in several IAGOP campaigns at the state and local level, I have obtained access to Chuck Grassley's internal polling. Please do NOT share this with anyone, this is confidential.

Senate:

Finkenauer (D) 52
Grassley (R, inc.) 36

Finkenauer (D) 54
Hinson (R) 33

Finkenauer (D) 53
Feenstra (R) 33

Finkenauer (D) 52
Reynolds (R) 38

Sand (D) 49
Grassley (R, inc.) 41

Axne (D) 48
Grassley (R, inc.) 42

Greenfield (D) 45
Grassley (R, inc.) 43


Governor:

D primary:

Mauhlbauer 48
Sand 40

GE:

Mauhlbauer (D) 50
Reynolds (R, inc.) 41

Sand (D) 49
Reynolds (R, inc.) 41


In the House races, Feenstra is ahead in IA-04 (it’s a lot closer than expected, though, and he is trailing in some counties), Mariannette Miller-Meeks is down by double digits in IA-2 (her favorability numbers are disastrous and have taken even more of a hit after Rita Hart's challenge in the House), Hinson is trailing a generic D by a high single-digit margin in IA-1 (this is the district where Finkenauer's presence at & Trump's absence from the top of the ticket are having the most detrimental effect on R prospects), and Axne is in no danger whatsoever in IA-3, leading by a wider margin than Feenstra (the extent to which D trends in the Des Moines metro have accelerated under Biden is impossible to overstate; that part of the state is essentially going the way of Metro Atlanta).

My friend also says that it’s an open secret in IAGOP circles that Feenstra is pretty overrated by national punditry/out-of-state observers and that he’s known to be a lackadaisical campaigner who’s in serious danger of blowing a winnable race for the party, which is why there’s been pressure on him to step down.

Thank you for providing this valuable information. One question: Was the poll weighted by ideology? I remember my previous poll found that 85% of Iowa voters describe their ideology as “elastic as hell”, and I wanted to see if this poll took that into consideration.

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Since memes are apparently the absolute worst part of our current political zeitgeist, I’ll just say that Finkenauer will probably lose by 12-15%, and will almost certainly do worse than Demmings. Wow, such an interesting race with so much to say about it.

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He'll likely be a "lifer", and while I'm against there being a maximum age for Senators (my grandfather was still 100% with it until the very end, and he was 106), I do wish people would be consistent in their belief, and not only support age limits when the Senator/party in question isn't to their liking.