PA-GOV 2022: Pat Toomey vs. Jim Kenney

[Lambsbread]

not sure Kenney will run nor win the primary

Not a chance.

I think that Dem nominee for Governor in 2022 will be John Fetterman, who will win GE against almost all Republicans. If Brian Fitzpatrick wins this year, I think he will run for Governor or Senator in 2022 (probably, Governor) and in this scenario, race will be Tossup/Tilt R. And open Senate seat will be won by Conor Lamb

Yeah Fetterman seems the obvious frontrunner.  Can't see Fitzpatrick winning any statewide primary though.

I feel like Fetterman is more likely to run for Senate, whereas Josh Shapiro will run for Governor. That's my bet right now at least.

[Lambsbread]

It seems unlikely that Kenney even runs statewide in 2022:

Most of the dozen-plus City Hall insiders interviewed by The Inquirer, which first reported Kenney’s interest in a statewide race just days before he cruised to reelection this month, said their bet is that Kenney will decide against a gubernatorial run. One frequently cited reason for their skepticism was his personality: Kenney is famously grumpy as mayor, and unlike the jovial Ed Rendell, the last Philadelphia mayor to become governor, often seems harried by being the city’s top executive.

Then there’s the political risk Kenney would be taking. The Home Rule Charter requires elected officials to resign once they begin campaigning for another office. That means that if he runs, Kenney would likely have to step down as mayor in 2021, less than two years into his second term, which begins in January.

I would agree with Everything Burns... that Shapiro and Lamb are the most likely nominees, with Fetterman possibly in the mix. I'd also throw in State Treasurer Joe Torsella and Congressman Brandon Boyle as potential candidates for either office, depending on how things play out.

Pennsylvania has a surprisingly, unusually good bench of Democrats for the next couple cycles.

[Lambsbread]

Has Toomey even indicated he'd be interested in running for Governor? He's otherwise up for reelection to the Senate in 2022, and I can't see the Gubernatorial race as being likely to be easier.

He hasn’t indicated but there has been a lot of speculation that he may be considering it.