PA-GOV 2022: Pat Toomey vs. Jim Kenney

[Suburbia]

Who wins in this open seat? Incumbent Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf is term limited. My prediction: Toomey 52% Kenney 46% R pick up. Toomey smears Kenney and ties him to Larry Krasner, crime, and Mumia.

[Lognog]

not sure Kenney will run nor win the primary

[Esteemed Jimmy]

I'd say Toomey in this scenario.

[😥]

I think that Dem nominee for Governor in 2022 will be John Fetterman, who will win GE against almost all Republicans. If Brian Fitzpatrick wins this year, I think he will run for Governor or Senator in 2022 (probably, Governor) and in this scenario, race will be Tossup/Tilt R. And open Senate seat will be won by Conor Lamb

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Depends on the environment and Biden's popularity really. PA is a very polarized state and typically is close to the national result and we will see if it is more right or left than that in 2020 but it typically is in that narrow range and has been for several cycles.

Candidate quality only gets you so far, the cycle ultimately has the final say and there were many people who were presumed to be a shoo in, typically of the populist Democratic variety, who ended up getting caught in the wrong year and losing.

Of course if Trump wins reelection, then Democrats probably sweep PA in 2022.

[DINGO Joe]

I think that Dem nominee for Governor in 2022 will be John Fetterman, who will win GE against almost all Republicans. If Brian Fitzpatrick wins this year, I think he will run for Governor or Senator in 2022 (probably, Governor) and in this scenario, race will be Tossup/Tilt R. And open Senate seat will be won by Conor Lamb

Yeah Fetterman seems the obvious frontrunner.  Can't see Fitzpatrick winning any statewide primary though.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

not sure Kenney will run nor win the primary

Not a chance.

I think that Dem nominee for Governor in 2022 will be John Fetterman, who will win GE against almost all Republicans. If Brian Fitzpatrick wins this year, I think he will run for Governor or Senator in 2022 (probably, Governor) and in this scenario, race will be Tossup/Tilt R. And open Senate seat will be won by Conor Lamb

Yeah Fetterman seems the obvious frontrunner.  Can't see Fitzpatrick winning any statewide primary though.

I feel like Fetterman is more likely to run for Senate, whereas Josh Shapiro will run for Governor. That's my bet right now at least.

[wbrocks67]

I don't think Kenney would run for Governor. He's not even particularly popular here in Philly, so I don't think he'd fare well in a statewide race.

Also, I really don't get the movement behind Toomey running for Governor. He's not well liked statewide, and both his races were only won by 1-2%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Shapiro has the gubernatorial nomination in the bag, regardless of what Fetterman does.  Fetterman is the backup option if Lamb decides he's not interested in running.  Honestly though, Fetterman's best bet is to run for House if Doyle retires or run for reelection as LG and see if either Bob Casey or Mike Doyle has decided not to run for reelection by 2024.  Fetterman's a solid candidate, but we already have an exceptionally strong bench in PA and while he's good, he's not our best.  That way, worst case he could just run for Treasurer since it'll be open by then.

Lamb is simply the strongest potential statewide Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania not named "Bob Casey" by a country mile and it'd be political malpractice not to give him right of first refusal for Toomey's seat in 2022.  Ordinarily, I'd say Fetterman should just run for Governor, but that'd potentially mean a head-to-head with Shapiro and I think he'd face pretty long odds in that primary simply due to their respective geographic bases.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro has the gubernatorial nomination in the bag, regardless of what Fetterman does.  Fetterman is the backup option if Lamb decides he's not interested in running.  Honestly though, Fetterman's best bet is to run for House if Doyle retires or run for reelection as LG and see if either Bob Casey or Mike Doyle has decided not to run for reelection by 2024.  Fetterman's a solid candidate, but we already have an exceptionally strong bench in PA and while he's good, he's not our best.  That way, worst case he could just run for Treasurer since it'll be open by then.

Lamb is simply the strongest potential statewide Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania not named "Bob Casey" by a country mile and it'd be political malpractice not to give him right of first refusal for Toomey's seat in 2022.  Ordinarily, I'd say Fetterman should just run for Governor, but that'd potentially mean a head-to-head with Shapiro and I think he'd face pretty long odds in that primary simply due to their respective geographic bases.

Not to mention, depending on redistricting, PA-17 seems blue enough now where if Lamb left, a D wouldn't have a hard time keeping the seat.

I agree though that Lamb makes sense for Senate and Shapiro makes sense for Gov. Shapiro seems well liked as AG.

[Orser67]

It seems unlikely that Kenney even runs statewide in 2022:

Most of the dozen-plus City Hall insiders interviewed by The Inquirer, which first reported Kenney’s interest in a statewide race just days before he cruised to reelection this month, said their bet is that Kenney will decide against a gubernatorial run. One frequently cited reason for their skepticism was his personality: Kenney is famously grumpy as mayor, and unlike the jovial Ed Rendell, the last Philadelphia mayor to become governor, often seems harried by being the city’s top executive.

Then there’s the political risk Kenney would be taking. The Home Rule Charter requires elected officials to resign once they begin campaigning for another office. That means that if he runs, Kenney would likely have to step down as mayor in 2021, less than two years into his second term, which begins in January.

I would agree with Everything Burns... that Shapiro and Lamb are the most likely nominees, with Fetterman possibly in the mix. I'd also throw in State Treasurer Joe Torsella and Congressman Brandon Boyle as potential candidates for either office, depending on how things play out.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

It seems unlikely that Kenney even runs statewide in 2022:

Most of the dozen-plus City Hall insiders interviewed by The Inquirer, which first reported Kenney’s interest in a statewide race just days before he cruised to reelection this month, said their bet is that Kenney will decide against a gubernatorial run. One frequently cited reason for their skepticism was his personality: Kenney is famously grumpy as mayor, and unlike the jovial Ed Rendell, the last Philadelphia mayor to become governor, often seems harried by being the city’s top executive.

Then there’s the political risk Kenney would be taking. The Home Rule Charter requires elected officials to resign once they begin campaigning for another office. That means that if he runs, Kenney would likely have to step down as mayor in 2021, less than two years into his second term, which begins in January.

I would agree with Everything Burns... that Shapiro and Lamb are the most likely nominees, with Fetterman possibly in the mix. I'd also throw in State Treasurer Joe Torsella and Congressman Brandon Boyle as potential candidates for either office, depending on how things play out.

Pennsylvania has a surprisingly, unusually good bench of Democrats for the next couple cycles.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Kenney won't win the primary if he runs. He's unpopular in Philly. I think Shapiro has a chance to be the next Governor.

[Flyersfan232]

Shapiro has the gubernatorial nomination in the bag, regardless of what Fetterman does.  Fetterman is the backup option if Lamb decides he's not interested in running.  Honestly though, Fetterman's best bet is to run for House if Doyle retires or run for reelection as LG and see if either Bob Casey or Mike Doyle has decided not to run for reelection by 2024.  Fetterman's a solid candidate, but we already have an exceptionally strong bench in PA and while he's good, he's not our best.  That way, worst case he could just run for Treasurer since it'll be open by then.

Lamb is simply the strongest potential statewide Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania not named "Bob Casey" by a country mile and it'd be political malpractice not to give him right of first refusal for Toomey's seat in 2022.  Ordinarily, I'd say Fetterman should just run for Governor, but that'd potentially mean a head-to-head with Shapiro and I think he'd face pretty long odds in that primary simply due to their respective geographic bases.

What if lamb lose reelection this year?

[DINGO Joe]

Shapiro has the gubernatorial nomination in the bag, regardless of what Fetterman does.  Fetterman is the backup option if Lamb decides he's not interested in running.  Honestly though, Fetterman's best bet is to run for House if Doyle retires or run for reelection as LG and see if either Bob Casey or Mike Doyle has decided not to run for reelection by 2024.  Fetterman's a solid candidate, but we already have an exceptionally strong bench in PA and while he's good, he's not our best.  That way, worst case he could just run for Treasurer since it'll be open by then.

Lamb is simply the strongest potential statewide Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania not named "Bob Casey" by a country mile and it'd be political malpractice not to give him right of first refusal for Toomey's seat in 2022.  Ordinarily, I'd say Fetterman should just run for Governor, but that'd potentially mean a head-to-head with Shapiro and I think he'd face pretty long odds in that primary simply due to their respective geographic bases.

What if lamb lose reelection this year?

Lamb is safe

[President Johnson]

John Fetterman should be the Democratic candidate, and I think he'd have a great chance. i don't think Toomey will run for governor, he'll run for reelection to the senate. Conor Lamb would be a strong challenger here who could even win in a Biden midterm.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Has Toomey even indicated he'd be interested in running for Governor? He's otherwise up for reelection to the Senate in 2022, and I can't see the Gubernatorial race as being likely to be easier.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Has Toomey even indicated he'd be interested in running for Governor? He's otherwise up for reelection to the Senate in 2022, and I can't see the Gubernatorial race as being likely to be easier.

He hasn’t indicated but there has been a lot of speculation that he may be considering it.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman or Shapiro would be good I think, but my heart tells me Shapiro would be a better candidate.

Lamb should run for Senate. He would be the best candidate to win statewide in the Senate.

[MT Treasurer]

I do think Lamb could win a Senate race in PA even in a Biden midterm mostly because of the state's Democratic DNA/high floor and Toomey's underwhelming electoral record, but IMO people are seriously overestimating how effective this kind of candidate ("moderate", veteran, telegenic, peeling off Republican voters while capitalizing on the environment and existing trends, etc.) will be in an environment far less favorable to Democrats. Lamb would be a shoo-in in a Trump midterm, but I’m with NC Yankee here in the sense that Lamb (or Kind in WI, for that matter) would have a hard time replicating this "safe" strategy at the statewide/federal level in a Democratic midterm (fewer persuadable R voters, an unfavorable environment beyond his control, the need to ramp up Democratic turnout without alienating swing voters, etc.) and could end up losing just because he’s running in the wrong year.

That said, I don’t doubt that this would be a better pick-up opportunity than WI.