If they were off by as much as they were in Mississippi, it's going to be Rispone +0.5. But, their proportion of early voters in their poll is low (20%) while the early voters seem overly Dem even with the data we've seen (those two things cancel, roughly). Since this is Targoz, I would say this makes Rispone more likely to win than anything lol. But, they could be right for once.
Am I reading this correctly? Because if 20% of voters are early and 80% are ED, then the support levels in the poll figures above would add up to JBE 49% (30% EV and 70% ED give JBE 50% exactly).
30-35% of voters being EV seems more realistic based on what I've seen (could be higher if overall turnout is lower than 2015).
I just did some quick math based on what their statement said (165 early/803 total = 20.5%). If the 165 are
in addition to the 803 total, then that makes even less sense.
