LA-Targoz: Edwards 50%, Rispone 46%

[Tender Branson]

Election-day voters: 48-47 Rispone
Early/postal voters: 57-41 Edwards
Combined: 50-46 Edwards

Methodology

The PollSmart MR online poll was conducted by Targoz Market Research,
an independent research company with sample provided by Prodege, a
leading market research panel.

Interviews were conducted from November 7th to 13th, 2019, among a
sample of 803 respondents who live in Louisiana and are registered to
vote. The sample also included 165 early voters.

The estimated margin of sampling error for registered voters is +/-3.5 at
the 95% confidence level. More information about the PollSmartMR polls
can be obtained by visiting www.pollsmartmr.com or www.targoz.com.

Link

This is the pollster that had Beshear+19 ...

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by Targoz Strategic Marketing on 2019-11-13

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionsGuy]

If they were off by as much as they were in Mississippi, it's going to be Rispone +0.5. But, their proportion of early voters in their poll is low (20%) while the early voters seem overly Dem even with the data we've seen (those two things cancel, roughly). Since this is Targoz, I would say this makes Rispone more likely to win than anything lol. But, they could be right for once.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is where Early vote come in, giving JBE the win

[DINGO Joe]

If they were off by as much as they were in Mississippi, it's going to be Rispone +0.5. But, their proportion of early voters in their poll is low (20%) while the early voters seem overly Dem even with the data we've seen (those two things cancel, roughly). Since this is Targoz, I would say this makes Rispone more likely to win than anything lol. But, they could be right for once.

Maybe they expect turnout to be 85%

[Adam Griffin]

If they were off by as much as they were in Mississippi, it's going to be Rispone +0.5. But, their proportion of early voters in their poll is low (20%) while the early voters seem overly Dem even with the data we've seen (those two things cancel, roughly). Since this is Targoz, I would say this makes Rispone more likely to win than anything lol. But, they could be right for once.

Am I reading this correctly? Because if 20% of voters are early and 80% are ED, then the support levels in the poll figures above would add up to JBE 49% (30% EV and 70% ED give JBE 50% exactly).

30-35% of voters being EV seems more realistic based on what I've seen (could be higher if overall turnout is lower than 2015).

[ElectionsGuy]

If they were off by as much as they were in Mississippi, it's going to be Rispone +0.5. But, their proportion of early voters in their poll is low (20%) while the early voters seem overly Dem even with the data we've seen (those two things cancel, roughly). Since this is Targoz, I would say this makes Rispone more likely to win than anything lol. But, they could be right for once.

Am I reading this correctly? Because if 20% of voters are early and 80% are ED, then the support levels in the poll figures above would add up to JBE 49% (30% EV and 70% ED give JBE 50% exactly).

30-35% of voters being EV seems more realistic based on what I've seen (could be higher if overall turnout is lower than 2015).

I just did some quick math based on what their statement said (165 early/803 total = 20.5%). If the 165 are in addition to the 803 total, then that makes even less sense.

[Adam Griffin]

If they were off by as much as they were in Mississippi, it's going to be Rispone +0.5. But, their proportion of early voters in their poll is low (20%) while the early voters seem overly Dem even with the data we've seen (those two things cancel, roughly). Since this is Targoz, I would say this makes Rispone more likely to win than anything lol. But, they could be right for once.

Am I reading this correctly? Because if 20% of voters are early and 80% are ED, then the support levels in the poll figures above would add up to JBE 49% (30% EV and 70% ED give JBE 50% exactly).

30-35% of voters being EV seems more realistic based on what I've seen (could be higher if overall turnout is lower than 2015).

I just did some quick math based on what their statement said (165 early/803 total = 20.5%).

Hmm, they must have weighted it (not the worst idea here given it's unlikely only 20% would be EV).

JBE @ 57% with 20.5% of voters (EV) = 11.685
JBE @ 47% with 79.5% of voters (ED) = 37.365

JBE @ 49.1% (Rispone @ 46.6%)

JBE @ 57% with 30.0% of voters (EV) = 17.1
JBE @ 47% with 70.0% of voters (ED) = 32.9

JBE @ 50.0% (Rispone @ 45.9%)

[Xing]

So... Rispone by 14.6%?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So... Rispone by 14.6%?

Yes.

[Matty]

Surprise surprise, atlas taking a poop on targoz

They nailed the MS race btw

[Xing]

Surprise surprise, atlas taking a poop on targoz

They nailed the MS race btw

Uh, I don't really consider being off by 4.5% "nailing" a race.

[Tender Branson]

Surprise surprise, atlas taking a poop on targoz

They nailed the MS race btw

Uh, I don't really consider being off by 4.5% "nailing" a race.

The best "pollster" is the Atlas database average:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2019/polls.php

Beshear+4 (actual: Beshear+0.4)
Reeves+2 (actual: Reeves+5)
Edwards+2

[Brittain33]

Do not darken our doorway again, Targoz

[Person Man]

Pretty close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty close.

Yeah, but the f#cked up the early vote and election day numbers pretty badly (election day less so, but still).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Looks like Targoz was pretty much the star of the show this year.

[ON Progressive]

Looks like Targoz was pretty much the star of the show this year.

They missed Kentucky Governor by 18 points lmao

[Bandit3 the Worker]

They missed Kentucky Governor by 18 points lmao

So I take it we're supposed to go by Gravis or Trafalgar instead.

[Pericles]

They missed Kentucky Governor by 18 points lmao

So I take it we're supposed to go by Gravis or Trafalgar instead.

Polling accuracy is determined by how close the poll is to the final margin, not whether the poll gets lucky and happens to call the correct winner. Trafalgar and Gravis were off by a comparably small 6 points, so even though they got the wrong winner they were clearly more accurate polls.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Polling accuracy is determined by how close the poll is to the final margin, not whether the poll gets lucky and happens to call the correct winner.

Of course Targoz called the winner, because Bevin will always, always be a loser.

[Gone to Carolina]

They missed Kentucky Governor by 18 points lmao

So I take it we're supposed to go by Gravis or Trafalgar instead.

Mason-Dixon was far more accurate than any of those other pollsters, they came within 1% of the margin for KY / LA and missed MS by 2.5%.

[junior chįmp]

All hail Targoz, bringer of winners

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All hail Targoz, bringer of winners

Matt Bevin and Rispone were down by more, they just narrowed the gap.

[junior chįmp]

All hail Targoz, bringer of winners

Matt Bevin and Rispone were down by more, they just narrowed the gap.

Louisiana is home to political family cabal of Landrieu which rhymes with Cordon bleu, a popular dish of French origin served in participating locations across New Orleans, blue city filled with ancestors of French cajuns, where Edward's went from 70 to 90 in Gov. vote which Targoz foresaw.