NC GOV 2024 - Stein (D) vs Robinson (R)

[Fancyarcher]

I know people here are skeptical since NC isn’t a very elastic state, but I do think Robinson and Morrow have potential to run well behind Trump here. Public executions/lynchings? The Republican AG nominee in Nevada said similar things about executing people and she ended up losing by the biggest margin of any candidate if either party statewide in 2022. EW Jackson lost by a landslide in 2013 for Virginia LG when his ticket mates only narrowly lost.

The thing is though, both of those were in midterms / off years. This is the first time we've had such a horrible candidate in a swing-ish state in a presidential year, and turnout is going to be much higher. It's hard to see Robinson running behind Trump that much, unless he somehow collapses in North Carolina (very, very unlikely).

[Fancyarcher]

I know people here are skeptical since NC isn’t a very elastic state, but I do think Robinson and Morrow have potential to run well behind Trump here. Public executions/lynchings? The Republican AG nominee in Nevada said similar things about executing people and she ended up losing by the biggest margin of any candidate if either party statewide in 2022. EW Jackson lost by a landslide in 2013 for Virginia LG when his ticket mates only narrowly lost.

The thing is though, both of those were in midterms. This is the first time we've had such a horrible candidate in a swing-ish state in a presidential year, and turnout is going to be much higher. It's hard to see Robinson running behind Trump that much, unless he somehow collapses in North Carolina (very, very unlikely).

It still happens—are we forgetting that Cooper and Stein both won two elections apiece with Trump on the ballot? And they weren’t running against people as extreme as Morrow and Robinson.

Stein out ran Biden by less than 2 points. Cooper's performance was impressive in context, but he was an incumbent, and Stein running for Governor lacks that. I want to believe that he'd have the race locked up, but I just don't see there being enough of a divergence between presidential and governor for candidate quality to matter as much as some people think it does.

[Fancyarcher]

I know people here are skeptical since NC isn’t a very elastic state, but I do think Robinson and Morrow have potential to run well behind Trump here. Public executions/lynchings? The Republican AG nominee in Nevada said similar things about executing people and she ended up losing by the biggest margin of any candidate if either party statewide in 2022. EW Jackson lost by a landslide in 2013 for Virginia LG when his ticket mates only narrowly lost.

The thing is though, both of those were in midterms. This is the first time we've had such a horrible candidate in a swing-ish state in a presidential year, and turnout is going to be much higher. It's hard to see Robinson running behind Trump that much, unless he somehow collapses in North Carolina (very, very unlikely).

It still happens—are we forgetting that Cooper and Stein both won two elections apiece with Trump on the ballot? And they weren’t running against people as extreme as Morrow and Robinson.

Stein out ran Biden by less than 2 points. Cooper's performance was impressive in context, but he was an incumbent, and Stein running for Governor lacks that. I want to believe that he'd have the race locked up, but I just don't see there being enough of a divergence between presidential and governor for candidate quality to matter as much as some people think it does.

We’ll have to see. Stein won against a strong opponent who was the sitting District Attorney of one of the bluest counties in North Carolina. I think that fact is overlooked. Dan Forest wasn’t weak either.

For what it’s worth, even if Stein’s overperformance of Biden was once again only a couple points, that’s probably all he needs anyway. For whatever reason, people seem to think Trump won North Carolina by a bigger margin than he actually did when it was extremely close in 2020 and reasonably close in 2016.

Oh, I expect Stein to win, unless North Carolina swings considerably right. I just think some people will be very disappointed when he only wins by like a point.