Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

More by-election polls come in confirming the CDP lead on all 3

Tokyo's 15th polls are the most fun.    This time without the LDP backing anyone openly the same anti-LDP chaos that reigns in some seats on how the anti-LDP vote is supposed to consolidate is now taking place where the anti-CDP vote does not know how to consolidate or even which candidate is in the best position to take on the CDP (JRP, CPJ or pro-TPFA)







The go2senkyo poll in Tokyo 15th has it broken out by voter type

LDP voters: CPJ > JRP > pro-TPFA Ind.
KP: 50% are for pro-TPFA Ind. (I guess this is due to an appeal by Governor Koike) > JRP
CDP: 80% for CDP, 10% for pto-TPFA
JRP: 50% for JRP > pro-TPFA
Ind. CDP > CPJ > JRP > ex-CDP Upper House MP > Pro-TPFA

So the main issue is the LDP and KP voters are not consolidating around one anti-CDP candidate leading to an easy win by the CDP.

[jaichind]

JPY fell beyond the 155 level.  There might be an intervention from BOJ.

The fall of JPY is purely a function of the rise of USA interest rates.  The right thing to do is for BOJ to raise rates as well but that will blow up the fiscal bomb.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6499226

Both Kishida and the CDP leader Izumi  will be in Shimane 1st tomorrow for the last day of the campaigning before the by-election.

[jaichind]

My prediction of the 3 by-elections.   CDP wins all 3 but underperforms pre-election polls in Tokyo 15th.

Tokyo 15th   (CDP underperforms but still wins, pro-TPFA outperforms)
CDP                                26
JRP                                 21
Pro-TPFA                         20
CPJ                                 14
ex-CDP Upper House MP     9
Disgraced LDP ex-MP         6
DIY                                  3


Shimane 1st
CDP                                53
LDP                                47


Nagasaki 3rd
CDP                               68
JRP                                32

[jaichind]

One more Shimane 1st poll has the CDP ahead


The poll has the CDP candidate winning a good part of the LDP and KP vote while completely sweeping the CDP and JCP vote as well as the large majority of the lean opposition independent vote.

[Logical]

Turnout for Tokyo 15th.

https://www.city.koto.lg.jp/610102/kuse/senkyo/kekka/shugingin/20240428/touhyou.html

[jaichind]

Tokyo 15th turnout vs 2021

[Logical]

All three districts immediately called for CDP.

[jaichind]

NHK calls all 3 seats for CDP as polls close.   It must not be even close in all 3.

[jaichind]

It will be tough days ahead for Kishida

[jaichind]

Shimane 1st exit poll - a blowout win for CDP over LDP.  This is worse for LDP than anyone imagined

[jaichind]

Tokyo 15th exit poll.  Ex-CDP Upper House MP outperformed to come in second, followed by JRP, pro-TPFA, and CPJ.

[jaichind]

Nagasaki 3rd exit poll - most along lines of pre-election polls

[jaichind]

This is the first time the LDP has lost a Lower House seat in Shimane  since the advent of the FPTP system in 1996.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch ouch ouch.
If Shimane is cracking this badly...

[jaichind]

In the last few days of the election RS leader, 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) campaigned for the ex-CDP Upper House MP in Tokyo 15th even though other RS Tokyo leaders campaigned for the CDP candidate.  This seems to be the main reason why the ex-CDP Upper House MP came in second while the LDP vote imploded and splintered.

[Logical]

I wouldn't look too deep into it. The CDP candidate has very very deep roots in the preferecture. Her great great grandfather was an Imperial Prince who was adopted as heir to the family of the last Daimyo of western Shimane. Her uncle was a maverick and an LDP faction leader who rebelled against Koizumi's postal privatization. Her father followed his brother and represented the other Shimane district until 2009!

[jaichind]

I wouldn't look too deep into it. The CDP candidate has very very deep roots in the preferecture. Her great great grandfather was an Imperial Prince who was adopted as heir to the family of the last Daimyo of western Shimane. Her uncle was a maverick and an LDP faction leader who rebelled against Koizumi's postal privatization. Her father followed his brother and represented the other Shimane district until 2009!

And she was Upper House MP in 2007-2013.  But since the implosion of DPJ in 2012 her vote shares in various elections have been at most the low 40% against, to be fair, strong LDP candidates.  The fact she would win was mostly accepted as the most likely outcome.  The landslide nature of the vote share shows the LDP vote failed to come out or defected to her.   I agree in a national election the LDP turnout will be higher but she seems to be in a good position to win re-election in the next Lower House election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't look too deep into it. The CDP candidate has very very deep roots in the preferecture. Her great great grandfather was an Imperial Prince who was adopted as heir to the family of the last Daimyo of western Shimane. Her uncle was a maverick and an LDP faction leader who rebelled against Koizumi's postal privatization. Her father followed his brother and represented the other Shimane district until 2009!

Ah, postal rebels. That does make a lot of sense...
(Plus politics is unusually local in Japan)

[jaichind]

Tokyo 15th exit poll by party ID

LDP       24
KP           3
DIY         1
JRP          8
DPP         2
CDP       11
RS           1
JCP          3

LDP vote completely fractured

[jaichind]

Shimane 1st exit poll by party ID

LDP         37
KP            3
JRP           4
DPP          2
CDP        18
RS            2
JCP           2

Significant LDP defection to the CDP candidate

[Logical]

I wouldn't look too deep into it. The CDP candidate has very very deep roots in the preferecture. Her great great grandfather was an Imperial Prince who was adopted as heir to the family of the last Daimyo of western Shimane. Her uncle was a maverick and an LDP faction leader who rebelled against Koizumi's postal privatization. Her father followed his brother and represented the other Shimane district until 2009!

And she was Upper House MP in 2007-2013.  But since the implosion of DPJ in 2012 her vote shares in various elections have been at most the low 40% against, to be fair, strong LDP candidates.  The fact she would win was mostly accepted as the most likely outcome.  The landslide nature of the vote share shows the LDP vote failed to come out or defected to her.   I agree in a national election the LDP turnout will be higher but she seems to be in a good position to win re-election in the next Lower House election.

As you well know, rural West Japan politics are highly personalitic. Unless the LDP can come up with a big name in the district she should be able to hold the seat for as long as she wants to.

[jaichind]

The Tokyo 15th results, if exit polls are right, are also highly embarrassing for Governor Koike with the pro-TPFA candidate driven to 4th place with a vote share of around 12%.  This will damage her hoped-for coronation like being reelection later this year.

[Logical]

Also pretty decent results for CPJ in their debut. Just 20-30 CPJ candidates in close seats can hurt the LDP badly in a general election.

[jaichind]

Results

Nagasaki 3rd (38% in)
CDP                       66.6
JRP                        33.4


Shimane 1st (9% in)
CDP                      49.5
LDP                       50.5


Tokyo 15th (nothing in yet)