Which Likely R seats do you believe Democrats will pick-up?
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  Which Likely R seats do you believe Democrats will pick-up?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
AR-02		  
#2
AZ-06		  
#3
CA-04		  
#4
CA-21		  
#5
CA-22		  
#6
CO-03		  
#7
FL-06		  
#8
FL-15		  
#9
FL-16		  
#10
FL-18		  
#11
FL-25		  
#12
GA-07		  
#13
IL-13		  
#14
IL-14		  
#15
MI-01		  
#16
MI-06		  
#17
MI-07		  
#18
MO-02		  
#19
NJ-03		  
#20
NM-02		  
#21
NY-23		  
#22
NY-24		  
#23
NC-02		  
#24
NC-08		  
#25
OH-07		  
#26
OH-10		  
#27
OH-14		  
#28
OH-15		  
#29
OK-05		  
#30
PA-10		  
#31
TX-21		  
#32
VA-05		  
#33
WI-06		  
#34
WV-03		  
#35
None of these		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 54

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Author Topic: Which Likely R seats do you believe Democrats will pick-up?  (Read 2385 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: May 24, 2018, 02:34:58 PM »
All of these are rated as Likely R by Sabato's Crystal Ball. How many will flip? If so, which ones?

I'm thinking D's pick-up CA-21, NJ-03, NM-02, and WV-03 and come very close in AR-02, CO-03, FL-18, GA-07, IL-13, NY-24, NC-02, PA-10 and WI-06.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2018, 02:39:20 PM »
Probably none of those
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2018, 02:46:05 PM »
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Doimper
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2018, 02:56:10 PM »
The Blankenbros have spoken, close this thread.
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Lamda
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2018, 02:57:46 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2018, 03:01:10 PM by Lamda »
NM-2,FL-18,FL-15,NJ-3,AR-2,IL-13,IL-14,NC-2,WV-03.
And out of this list IN-9.
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mencken
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2018, 06:10:13 PM »
Small chance of one of the Illinois districts or CA-21. Most likely none.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2018, 06:16:08 PM »
I can see WI-06 falling in a wave, considering the midwest's--and more specifically Wisconsin's--drastic elasticity. I can also see WI-07 and WI-08 potentially going down on as well. WV-03 is also definitely possible, but I don't pay very much attention to House races so I can't comment on pretty much any of the other ones, lol.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2018, 07:04:44 PM »
WV 3rd.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2018, 07:24:33 PM »
NY-24 and CA-21
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BlueDogs2020
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« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2018, 12:23:51 AM »
WV-3 should probably be considered a Tossup...... I think out of these it is most likely to flip.
I think AR-02 is also more vulnerable than most of the other options on this list.
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Sestak
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« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2018, 12:32:03 AM »
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BBD
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« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2018, 09:16:51 AM »
Dubya Vee Oh Three.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2018, 09:21:01 AM »
Quite a few of these, honestly. Way more than the couple of seats people are cautiously willing admit are possible.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2018, 11:04:48 AM »
AR-02 - I don't know why, but I have a weird feeling about this one. Tucker's a really good Dem recruit and has a great personal story (beating cancer at such a young age).

FL-06 - Open seat, swing district, Dems seem excited about Nancy Soderberg.

NJ-03 - MacArthur's unpopular because of healthcare vote, Kim seems a solid recruit.

NM-02 - Open seat, Dems won it last time it was open, still a climb, but Dems seem to like Torres Small.

VA-05 - Before yesterday, I wouldn't have even considered this one, but with Garrett's poor fundraising and rambling press conference, plus the strength of the Dem, I can see this one flipping now.

WV-03 - Ojeda's a unique candidate and he's probably the strongest recruit Dems could have gotten here.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2018, 03:22:36 PM »
Nunes either loses or has a close call. Standing by that.
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Theodore
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« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2018, 03:34:40 PM »
Went with WV-3rd but that is 50/50 for me
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #16 on: May 25, 2018, 03:54:27 PM »
NJ-03, because MacArthur is acting like he represents an uber-conservative district in central Pennsylvania and not well-off Philly suburbs and shore towns
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2018, 07:41:09 PM »
Quote from: LabourJersey on May 25, 2018, 03:54:27 PM
NJ-03, because MacArthur is acting like he represents an uber-conservative district in central Pennsylvania and not well-off Philly suburbs and shore towns

Thank you! MacArthur is severely overrated.
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BlueDogs2020
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2018, 04:29:59 PM »
I feel most confident in saying that AR-02 and WV-03 will go blue, but I wouldn´t be surprised if about 3 other seats also flipped.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2018, 04:42:19 PM »
Quote from: PAK Man on May 25, 2018, 11:04:48 AM
AR-02 - I don't know why, but I have a weird feeling about this one. Tucker's a really good Dem recruit and has a great personal story (beating cancer at such a young age).

FL-06 - Open seat, swing district, Dems seem excited about Nancy Soderberg.

NJ-03 - MacArthur's unpopular because of healthcare vote, Kim seems a solid recruit.

NM-02 - Open seat, Dems won it last time it was open, still a climb, but Dems seem to like Torres Small.

VA-05 - Before yesterday, I wouldn't have even considered this one, but with Garrett's poor fundraising and rambling press conference, plus the strength of the Dem, I can see this one flipping now.

WV-03 - Ojeda's a unique candidate and he's probably the strongest recruit Dems could have gotten here.
in nm, is small pro gun?
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Rhenna
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« Reply #20 on: May 26, 2018, 09:01:30 PM »
AR-02, CA-22, IL-13, two or three of the Ohio seats, VA-05, and WV-03.
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Rhenna
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2018, 03:18:32 PM »
Why so many NM-02 votes?
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2018, 04:54:05 PM »
Democrats won it the last time it was open?
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2018, 12:09:36 AM »
Bump.

CA-21, IL-14, NJ-3, NM-2, and OK-5 flipped.
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