Nov. 2017 general election predictions? (user search)
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  Nov. 2017 general election predictions? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Nov. 2017 general election predictions?  (Read 29543 times)
The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« on: September 19, 2017, 06:29:10 PM »

VA-GOV

48.81% Northam (D)
46.02% Gillespie (R)

VA-LT GOV

49.81% Fairfax (D)
47.10% Vogel (R)

VA-AT GEN

54.85% Herring (D)
44.15% Adams (R)

NJ-GOV

55.97% Murphy (D)
42.36%% Guadagno (R)

New York Mayor

68.6% DeBlasio (D)
31.4% (R+O)
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The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2017, 02:58:38 PM »

Final Predictions

Virginia Governor's Race

Ralph Northam: 49.01%
Ed Gillespie: 48.55%
Cliff Hyra: 2.03%

Virginia Lieutenant Governor's

Justin Fairfax: 50.38%
Jill Vogel: 48.15%

Virginia Attorney General

Mark Herring: 52.01%
John Adams: 47.84%

New Jersey Governor's

Phil Murphy: 52.5%
Kim Guadagno: 41.9%
Others: 5.6%

New York City Mayor's Race

Bill De Blasio: 65.83%

Nicole Malliotakis: 28.12%
Bo Dietli: 4.02%
Sal Albanese: 1.45%

Utah 3rd congressional district special Election, 2017

John Curtis: 56.38%
Kathie Allen: 29.69%
Jim Bennett: 8.03%


New York state Constitutional Convention vote, 2017

No: 55.96%
Yes: 44.04%

Atlanta 2017 Mayor's race

Keisha Lance Bottoms : 25.7%
Mary Norwood : 23.9%
Peter Aman : 14.1%
Vincent Fort : 11.9%
Cathy Woolard : 11.7%
Ceasar Mitchell : 5.1%
Kwanza Hall : 4.4%
John Eaves : 1.1%

Washington 45th District special election

Manka Dhingra: 56.03%
Jinyoung Englund; 42.97%

Virginia House of Delegates

Republicans: 56 Seats (-10)
Democrats: 44 Seats (+10

Maine Medicaid Expansion ballot initiative


Yes: 57.94%
No: 42.06%

Ohio Drug Price Relief Act

Yes: 53.58%
No: 46.42%

Cincinnati mayor election

Yvette Simpson: 50.72%
John Cranley: 49.13%

Nassau County executive election

Laura Curran: 51.02%
Jack Martins: 48.85%

Westchester county executive election

Rob Astorino: 49.75%
George Latimer: 49.16%
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The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2017, 05:22:45 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2017, 05:48:31 PM by The Govanah Jake »

@Jake You forgot to predict the Seattle mayoral election.

Not too understanding of the situation and can find much polling but from what I read I would predict it something like 51-48% for Durkan
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The Govanah Jake
Jake Jewvinivisk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,234


Political Matrix
E: -2.39, S: -5.30

« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2017, 09:02:35 PM »

Final Predictions

Virginia Governor's Race

Ralph Northam: 49.01%
Ed Gillespie: 48.55%
Cliff Hyra: 2.03%

Virginia Lieutenant Governor's

Justin Fairfax: 50.38%
Jill Vogel: 48.15%

Virginia Attorney General

Mark Herring: 52.01%
John Adams: 47.84%

New Jersey Governor's

Phil Murphy: 52.5%
Kim Guadagno: 41.9%
Others: 5.6%

New York City Mayor's Race

Bill De Blasio: 65.83%

Nicole Malliotakis: 28.12%
Bo Dietli: 4.02%
Sal Albanese: 1.45%

Utah 3rd congressional district special Election, 2017

John Curtis: 56.38%
Kathie Allen: 29.69%
Jim Bennett: 8.03%


New York state Constitutional Convention vote, 2017

No: 55.96%
Yes: 44.04%

Atlanta 2017 Mayor's race

Keisha Lance Bottoms : 25.7%
Mary Norwood : 23.9%
Peter Aman : 14.1%
Vincent Fort : 11.9%
Cathy Woolard : 11.7%
Ceasar Mitchell : 5.1%
Kwanza Hall : 4.4%
John Eaves : 1.1%

Washington 45th District special election

Manka Dhingra: 56.03%
Jinyoung Englund; 42.97%

Virginia House of Delegates

Republicans: 56 Seats (-10)
Democrats: 44 Seats (+10

Maine Medicaid Expansion ballot initiative


Yes: 57.94%
No: 42.06%

Ohio Drug Price Relief Act

Yes: 53.58%
No: 46.42%

Cincinnati mayor election

Yvette Simpson: 50.72%
John Cranley: 49.13%

Nassau County executive election

Laura Curran: 51.02%
Jack Martins: 48.85%

Westchester county executive election

Rob Astorino: 49.75%
George Latimer: 49.16%


1. I got the winner correct though I badly overestimated the republican

2. Closer to the result but overestimated the republican

3. Slightly overestimated the result though this is the closest Vitgina prediction to the actual result

4. Overestimated the third party margin which results it being off by 1% in favor of Murphy

5. Badly over east images the third party's. Though by De Blasio and Malliotakis percentages are pretty good

6. I think this would pretty good

7. Got No right but didn't expect it too win by 80%

8. Overestimated Fort though this was correct in the outcome

9. At least I got the winner

10. Surprised by how much they gained here

11. Pretty spot on

12. Dead wrong

13. Wrong

14. Pretty spot on. Hopefully Martins is done after this

15. Dead wrong. Didn't expect a 57% Latimer win

Overall - Some spot on, some dead wrong, in general overeastimated Republicans.
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