MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hogan has signed a few new gun laws.

I wonder if this will make the NRA sour on him.

this could prevent turnout from eastern md, while not being enough in the Big three, hogan just pulled a rauner lol

He probably only did it because the filing deadline has passed and he doesn't have a more conservative challenger.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Shocked by Kamenetz's passing. Will his name still be on the ballot? He was often in second place in the polls, iirc.

He'll probably still be on the ballot, yeah. I think Jealous benefits from this, since he lives in the Baltimore suburb of Anne Arundel County, and he his main ties to the state are in the Baltimore area. I still think Baker will pull most of Kamenetz's support though.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I am having serious reservations about Jealous. The thing I like about Maryland Democrats is that they tend to put partisanship aside for what's best for the state, and I don't have confidence that Jealous is that kind of Maryland Democrat.

While I'm open to the idea of single-payer, I don't think a state-level system would work, especially in Maryland where the resulting shock to the market would force health care companies to lay-off their workers. It doesn't inspire much confidence in me that Jealous said that people "would just have to get another job."

If he were elected, Mike Miller and Mike Busch could be a check on him, since they probably are against single-payer, but I'm worried that in this era of partisanship, that could fall through. At the moment, I am undecided in the race. Now I know how it feels to be like a Never-Trumper.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I am having serious reservations about Jealous. The thing I like about Maryland Democrats is that they tend to put partisanship aside for what's best for the state, and I don't have confidence that Jealous is that kind of Maryland Democrat.

While I'm open to the idea of single-payer, I don't think a state-level system would work, especially in Maryland where the resulting shock to the market would force health care companies to lay-off their workers. It doesn't inspire much confidence in me that Jealous said that people "would just have to get another job."

If he were elected, Mike Miller and Mike Busch could be a check on him, since they probably are against single-payer, but I'm worried that in this era of partisanship, that could fall through. At the moment, I am undecided in the race. Now I know how it feels to be like a Never-Trumper.

Did you just compare Jealous to Trump? Jealous was the most pragmatic Sanders supporter at 2016 DNC Platform committee.

I did, in fact. Both are hoping that a play-to-the-base, divisive strategy will get them past the finish line. I think that represents everything that is wrong with American politics right now. At least Hogan is trying to reach out beyond his base.

[PragmaticPopulist]

While I'm open to the idea of single-payer, I don't think a state-level system would work, especially in Maryland where the resulting shock to the market would force health care companies to lay-off their workers. It doesn't inspire much confidence in me that Jealous said that people "would just have to get another job."

I agree. I think pro-single payer people are getting too impatient and trying to do this at a level that probably isn't sustainable. At the very least, it's not individually sustainable in every state, and I doubt MD is one of them. I'd rather just wait however long it takes for it to happen federally instead of trying a system that might fail big time and discredit the idea. There is already hesitation with it because of the potential costs, and if progressives force a big state-level experiment that implodes, it'll be hard to get support for it at the federal level where it might actually work.

That's another thought I had. I don't want Maryland to become the left-wing equivalent fo what happened in Kansas or Oklahoma.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hogan is out with his first attack ad, and it looks like an effective one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r1y1u10tWY&feature=youtu.be

As I've said, unless Ben Jealous has some plan to pay for it, state single-payer is a no-go. A single payer system in MD would cost a bit over half the state's budget. Despite Maryland's left-leaning ideology, people here do care about the debt. It's why most people think the state is going in the right direction.

I will note however, that the ad doesn't mention that a single-payer system would remove healthcare costs.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Which part of the state is going to be Hogan's biggest headache? I know Jealous did much better in the Baltimore area than the D.C. suburbs, but I feel like Hogan's numbers are more likely to collapse in the latter than the former.

Baltimore unless Jealous turns out to be a stronger than expected candidate. Jealous naturally has a high floor in Baltimore and he's a good fit for the area. Jealous is a worse fit for the DC suburbs, but if he does a really good job of tying Hogan to Trump and the national GOP, he can snap them back into the Dem column. It may be tough, but that alone would win it for him.

I actually think it's the other way around. I think Hogan will do best in the Baltimore suburbs. The DC suburbs are less elastic, and Hogan's from Anne Arundel County. (which is technically in the Baltimore metro)

[PragmaticPopulist]

Which part of the state is going to be Hogan's biggest headache? I know Jealous did much better in the Baltimore area than the D.C. suburbs, but I feel like Hogan's numbers are more likely to collapse in the latter than the former.

Baltimore unless Jealous turns out to be a stronger than expected candidate. Jealous naturally has a high floor in Baltimore and he's a good fit for the area. Jealous is a worse fit for the DC suburbs, but if he does a really good job of tying Hogan to Trump and the national GOP, he can snap them back into the Dem column. It may be tough, but that alone would win it for him.

I actually think it's the other way around. I think Hogan will do best in the Baltimore suburbs. The DC suburbs are less elastic, and Hogan's from Anne Arundel County. (which is technically in the Baltimore metro)

TBH, Hogan has a lot of things going against him in both areas.
Jealous fits more with the Baltimore suburbs, and the area has a lot of AAs, which should keep his floor high. The DC suburbs, on the other hand, are very inelastic and also have a pretty good chunk of AA voters.
I think Hogan has the better chance in DC, but thats just by a hair.

In 2014, Hogan carried Baltimore County 59-39. While I don't think he'll do that well this time around, he is still quite popular there. Jealous only really has connections to Baltimore City, which is distinct from the county.

Hogan also carried Anne Arundel County by a whopping 66-32. Again, I don't think Hogan's gonna do as well there, but I think he wins it by a large margin.

I also expect Hogan to improve in the DC suburbs. He's gained more support among nonwhites through heavy courting. While Jealous being nonwhite might offset it some, don't expect nonwhites to just "come home" to Democrats in this race.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Which part of the state is going to be Hogan's biggest headache? I know Jealous did much better in the Baltimore area than the D.C. suburbs, but I feel like Hogan's numbers are more likely to collapse in the latter than the former.

Baltimore unless Jealous turns out to be a stronger than expected candidate. Jealous naturally has a high floor in Baltimore and he's a good fit for the area. Jealous is a worse fit for the DC suburbs, but if he does a really good job of tying Hogan to Trump and the national GOP, he can snap them back into the Dem column. It may be tough, but that alone would win it for him.

I actually think it's the other way around. I think Hogan will do best in the Baltimore suburbs. The DC suburbs are less elastic, and Hogan's from Anne Arundel County. (which is technically in the Baltimore metro)

TBH, Hogan has a lot of things going against him in both areas.
Jealous fits more with the Baltimore suburbs, and the area has a lot of AAs, which should keep his floor high. The DC suburbs, on the other hand, are very inelastic and also have a pretty good chunk of AA voters.
I think Hogan has the better chance in DC, but thats just by a hair.

In 2014, Hogan carried Baltimore County 59-39. While I don't think he'll do that well this time around, he is still quite popular there. Jealous only really has connections to Baltimore City, which is distinct from the county.

Hogan also carried Anne Arundel County by a whopping 66-32. Again, I don't think Hogan's gonna do as well there, but I think he wins it by a large margin.

I also expect Hogan to improve in the DC suburbs. He's gained more support among nonwhites through heavy courting. While Jealous being nonwhite might offset it some, don't expect nonwhites to just "come home" to Democrats in this race.

Popularity and electability are two different things, and can be crucial.

While Hogan may be popular, will these voters turn out for him? Thats the question that Doug Jones will have in 2020, and Brown had in 2012.

Nonwhites will generally vote D, as AAs are one of the most inelastic groups in the USA. Especially with an AA candidate at the D helm, the D percentage of AA votes should be higher.

I dont know anything about MD politics, so excuse my lack of knowledge for some areas in the state.

But the suburbs of DC have been shown to be rather inelastic, even for popular candidates in the past. Baltimore county also has one of the larger AA percentages in the state, so it will have the highest D floor of all the counties.

I dont know which one will vote more R or more D, but again, there are a lot of factors going against Hogan in 2018. This race will largely be a race between Popularity and literally everything else.

The reason why the suburbs around DC are inelastic is that they are largely nonwhite. The two main counties that make up most of what we refer to as the DC suburbs (Montgomery and Prince George's) are majority-minority.  Montgomery is only about 45% white, while Prince George's in only 19% white.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore suburbs (Baltimore Co, Anne Arundel, Howard) are still largely white. Baltimore is 65% white, Anne Arundel is 75% white, and Howard is 62% white.

Thus, Hogan has a significantly higher ceiling in the Baltimore suburbs than the DC suburbs.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Dems running on single payer in states is so dumb it has a terrible track record. Completely failed in VT and when it was up for a vote in CO got blown out. It's just not fiscally feasible for a state to do something like this. The Hogan ad is a good template of what Dems should expect when Rs start to campaign against single payer. 

Not to mention the health insurance industry is a prime economic engine in the state.

This is a big reason why I voted for Rushern Baker in the primary. Single-payer at the federal level is a different story, but at the state level? It's just not feasible. I'm very worried it would turn Maryland into the left-wing equivalent of Kansas or Oklahoma.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sabato's Crystal Ball rating change:

From Lean R to Likely R.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-governors-2018-ratings-changes-abound/

Agree with this. Jealous is a bad fit for the state. People forget that Hogan was elected partly as a backlash to over-taxation, and Jealous running as an outright liberal will make it easy for Hogan to remind voters of that.

Of course, things could change between now and November, but Likely R is a legitimate rating for now.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Looks like Hogan is starting to have some Jealous style mishaps.
https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1033012693203136512

Yeah. This is why I'm still undecided in the race. I truly think Hogan is a fake moderate, but I'm uneasy with a few of Jealous's positions.