Upon a Cross of Globalism

[Former President tack50]

This is a great timeline! Looking forward to updates

[Former President tack50]

To be honest I expected a more generic assassination instead of a coup but this works too

Also I guess that report on white supremacists on the military is very nice foreshadowing

[Former President tack50]

Come to think about it, in a way this is reminiscent of the 1993 Russian constitutional crisis, except this time the legislative branch won´

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Russian_constitutional_crisis

[Former President tack50]

I guess the 2048 election wil be just a formality with president Gallagher winning 99%+ of the popular vote.

[Former President tack50]

I feel atlas libs read this like some people read 50 shades of Grey.

Nah, we have the NUT tl for that

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so I've decided to do my guesses for the Senate elections until the last properly contested elections in 2046 because why not. I will also be excluding any special elections:

2016:
Dems gain: IL, NH (as OTL)
D+2 (52R-48D)

2018:
Republicans gain: MT, ND, MO, IN, OH, WV, FL, NJ, WI
R+9 (61R-39D)

2020:
Dems gain: CO
D+1 (60R-40D)

2022:
Republicans gain: NH, NV
R+2 (62R-38D)

2024:
Dems gain: NJ, NV
Republicans gain: ME, MI
No net change (62R-38D)

2026:
Dems gain: AZ, TX, GA, NC, ME
D+5 (57R-43D)

2028:
Dems gain: NV, AZ, GA, FL
D+4 (53R-47D)

2030:
Republicans gain: MN, PA
R+2 (55R-45D)

2032:*
Republicans gain: NH, ME, TX, NC
R+4 (59R-41D)

2034:
Dems gain PA
D+1 (58R-42D)

2036:
Dems gain AZ, TX
D+2 (56R-44D)

2038:
Dems gain TX, NC
D+2 (54R-46D)

2040:*
Dems gain: AK, KS, WI, SC, NC, NH
D+6 (52D-48R)

2042:*
Republicans gain NV, AZ, TX, VT, RI
R+5 (53R-48D)

2044:*
LBS gain MN, MI
LBS+2 (55LBS-45D)

2046:*
LBS gain NH, PA, WI, NC, GA, FL, KS, AK
Dems gain Guam (x2), NMI (x2)
Net LBS+4 (63LBS-41D)

In fairness I think most of these results should be more "mixed" (only election with both D and R pickups is the 2024 realining election; excluding the 2046 midterms) but they still give us an idea. And after this, my mini-review of my guesses.

*1: Given Dems are quite overextended in 2032 as well as Hawley's convincing victory; it is kind of surprising Republicans don't win more seats, you could easily go all the way to R+8. I went with a mix of trends (NH, ME) and old GOP states coming home (TX, NC) but you could do all one or the other.

*2: Getting Dems to win the required Senate majority in 2040 requires several unorthodox pickups. AK, KS and NC are easy pickups given Ramirez-Rosa carries them, but the next 3 are quite hard to get unless you assume Dems hold states like WI and NH in 2028 and 2034. If you do, it gets easier though in any case you still fall 1 state short I think. I decided to give those 2 back to the Dems, as well as SC since that seemed like the most plausible pickup. Or you could also make up 1-2 special elections or flip other states like say, UT or ID

*3: Here you run into the same problem but in reverse. Unless you assume Dems hold to the Midwestern seats while the GOP holds the Southwest up until 2040; it is very hard to get the required 5 pickups. I went with giving Republicans 3 of their former competitive states (NV, AZ, TX) as well as 2 states that probably trended to them for quite a while at this point (VT, RI)

*4: Given the election was mostly rigged I am surprised President Gallagher didn't give himself a bigger Senate majority

*5: Decided to go with the unorthodox decision of giving the Dems the Senators for Guam and the Marianas. President Gallagher is very disappointed at their treason Anyways that way the Liberators can sweep the mainland US seats.

I guess I went too far into the trends direction in a way I suppose

[Former President tack50]

My god.

I wonder how Atlas is doing ITTL

Haley/Ryan, ReaganFan, Sanchez, are all loyalists to the Gallagher regime. Fuzzy was very happy how things were going but he passed away in his 80's. Most of us are probably in prison at least those who weren't able to flee the country.

Friendly reminder that a sizable proportion of Atlas users are not American.

I mean, in this TL it is much easier for non-American posters to imagine where they are. In my case (and yours) we'd probably end up being random citizens of the European Federation apparently

[Former President tack50]

Also this TL is one of the best I have read, keep it up Reagente!

[Former President tack50]

Yes. Probably Atlas would become some weird EXTREMELY retro thing exclusively for European Federation millennials and older zoomers with an interest in how sh1tty things are on the other side of the Atlantic.

Tbh the way more likely scenario is that in 2049 the Atlas forum would not exist (Dave's page probably survives though, albeit with rigged election results and no RDC recognition)

If it somehow did, I assume Virginia and/or Dave transferred the ownership and servers to a foreign poster (Kalwejt?) before everything collapsed.

I assume a handful of Americans would get prosecuted for supporting the RDC or President Ramirez Rosa back in the day.

The few posters here would indeed be a weird mix of esoteric European and Canadian posters, and the American refugees who left the US.

In any case, 2003 is as far away from 2020 as 2037 is. So by the time people who joined this year are as old as the old timers, we'd only be in the 2nd term of president Hawley.

[Former President tack50]

So if there's an epilogue coming, I'd like to make a prediction.

Gallagher = American Pinochet, and his rule ends in a similar way?

Do you see Gallagher making an honest referendum on his rule? I certainly don't tbh but we shall see

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Chilean_national_plebiscite
(in fairness, Pinochet getting 44% of the vote was quite a lot of support)