Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Xing]

In what universe are "almost all the races right after ST . . . gonna be Bernie friendly"?

Who is saying this? Some (ID, ND, WA, etc.) obviously are, though not all of them. Coming as someone who generally likes your posts, and thinks that you do a good job of checking your bias in your R vs. D predictions and analysis, I think you could do a better job of checking your bias in this particular primary.

[brucejoel99]

In what universe are "almost all the races right after ST . . . gonna be Bernie friendly"?

Who is saying this?

IndyRep was very clearly replying to this:

Hey guys throwing this out but might we be overreacting a bit? I mean Biden still has no staff or ground game in California or the northeast along with the fact almost all the races right after ST are gonna be Bernie friendly

So, it was Hindsight is 2020 who was saying it, but sure, go off on IndyRep I guess. 🤷

Some (ID, ND, WA, etc.) obviously are, though not all of them. Coming as someone who generally likes your posts, and thinks that you do a good job of checking your bias in your R vs. D predictions and analysis, I think you could do a better job of checking your bias in this particular primary.

Coming from somebody who generally likes your posts, & thinks that you do a good job of checking your bias in your predictions & analysis, I think you could do a better job of checking your bias in this particular exchange.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Saw on twitter Harris is going to endorse Biden in Oakland

This has been debunked.

[RI]

In what universe are "almost all the races right after ST . . . gonna be Bernie friendly"?

Who is saying this? Some (ID, ND, WA, etc.) obviously are

I'm not in WA right now so I don't have a sense on the ground, but I'm really wondering if it will be as Sanders-friendly as conventional wisdom suggests. Bernie will do great in Seattle, Bellingham, and Olympia (probably Yakima as well), but I would expect him to lose a lot of votes in east King County, Snohomish, Pierce, and Clark. A lot of those votes may go to Warren or Bloomberg and not Biden, but a lot will. Clinton won the 2016 primary, Obama only narrowly won the 2008 primary, and the state is really anti-tax for its Democratic lean. The state also has a big healthcare industry which could be threatened under Medicare for All (I'm quite interested in how Spokane goes as it seems like anti-establishment Sanders country but also has a big reliance on healthcare).

If Sanders does win it, I don't expect a rout.

[Gass3268]

In what universe are "almost all the races right after ST . . . gonna be Bernie friendly"?

Who is saying this? Some (ID, ND, WA, etc.) obviously are

I'm not in WA right now so I don't have a sense on the ground, but I'm really wondering if it will be as Sanders-friendly as conventional wisdom suggests. Bernie will do great in Seattle, Bellingham, and Olympia (probably Yakima as well), but I would expect him to lose a lot of votes in east King County, Snohomish, Pierce, and Clark. A lot of those votes may go to Warren or Bloomberg and not Biden, but a lot will. Clinton won the 2016 primary, Obama only narrowly won the 2008 primary, and the state is really anti-tax for its Democratic lean. The state also has a big healthcare industry which could be threatened under Medicare for All (I'm quite interested in how Spokane goes as it seems like anti-establishment Sanders country but also has a big reliance on healthcare).

If Sanders does win it, I don't expect a rout.

If Warren stays in she's going to do well in Washington.

[Omega21]

Can't wait for the first Gaffe Machine vs Trump debate, it's gonna be great entertainment for us who are not invested.

[Xing]

In what universe are "almost all the races right after ST . . . gonna be Bernie friendly"?

Who is saying this? Some (ID, ND, WA, etc.) obviously are

I'm not in WA right now so I don't have a sense on the ground, but I'm really wondering if it will be as Sanders-friendly as conventional wisdom suggests. Bernie will do great in Seattle, Bellingham, and Olympia (probably Yakima as well), but I would expect him to lose a lot of votes in east King County, Snohomish, Pierce, and Clark. A lot of those votes may go to Warren or Bloomberg and not Biden, but a lot will. Clinton won the 2016 primary, Obama only narrowly won the 2008 primary, and the state is really anti-tax for its Democratic lean. The state also has a big healthcare industry which could be threatened under Medicare for All (I'm quite interested in how Spokane goes as it seems like anti-establishment Sanders country but also has a big reliance on healthcare).

If Sanders does win it, I don't expect a rout.

Biden isn't going to beat Sanders. Warren is the only one I could see doing it (many voters here love Warren, and many have probably already voted for her), but she's not exactly in a great position right now. Obviously it's going to be far less lopsided than the primary, but there are also a lot of Asian voters in the Seattle area and Latino voters in places like Yakima and Centralia that I don't see going for Biden. The only places in the King County area that I see being good for Biden against Sanders would be places like Mercer Island, or perhaps places like Shoreline. I'd expect a 10-12 point win for Sanders, and I wouldn't rule out Warren coming in second.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Well, Clinton won the WA primary in 2016.  And Biden will have a wave of positive media attention if he does well on Super Tuesday.  I could see him pulling this out.

I've been surprised by the lack of Sanders presence here in Seattle.  There are a handful of Bernie signs but this neighborhood was far more enthusiastic about Sawant than they are about Sanders.  I haven't gotten any door knockers and the only mail I've gotten has been from Bloomberg.

[Xing]

Well, Clinton won the WA primary in 2016.

I forgot that for the next week I'll be dealing with this s*** that I've had to discuss multiple times to explain why it's not representative

[President Johnson]

Oh my god, I just watched the clip from Mayor Pete's endorsement and how Joe Biden compared him to Beau. I'm almost crying because of this. Both of them are have so much character.

[RI]

Oh my god, I just watched the clip from Mayor Pete's endorsement and how Joe Biden compared him to Beau. I'm almost crying because of this. Both of them are have so much character.

Saw this on Reddit:

[brucejoel99]

Oh my god, I just watched the clip from Mayor Pete's endorsement and how Joe Biden compared him to Beau. I'm almost crying because of this. Both of them are have so much character.

Yeah, I never expected to see such a beautiful, honest moment that connected two people in a way they needed out of the ugliness of our current political landscape. Very glad they got to have that.

[brucejoel99]

Oh my god, I just watched the clip from Mayor Pete's endorsement and how Joe Biden compared him to Beau. I'm almost crying because of this. Both of them are have so much character.

Saw this on Reddit:

Beau was a future President when cancer unduly took him away from us. And now, more than anything, this relationship makes me feel confident in believing that Pete will still be President one day.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Oh my god, I just watched the clip from Mayor Pete's endorsement and how Joe Biden compared him to Beau. I'm almost crying because of this. Both of them are have so much character.

Same!! I loved it!

Sh-t. I teared up watching this too:

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1234895060635934720?s=20

Pete has a bright future in President Biden’s admin.

[Bidenworth2020]

Oh my god, I just watched the clip from Mayor Pete's endorsement and how Joe Biden compared him to Beau. I'm almost crying because of this. Both of them are have so much character.

Same!! I loved it!

Sh-t. I teared up watching this too:

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1234895060635934720?s=20

Pete has a bright future in President Biden’s admin.

I hate myself for having hope, but I really feel like Biden has a shot to win in the general. My head says no, my heart says yes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Fmr. FBI Director James Comey endorses Joe Biden:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/jame-comey-backing-joe-biden-119614


Boooring. Would be more interested to know whether Comey would for vote for Bernie if he's the Democratic nominee in the end. At the very least, having been fired by Trump deserves going full ABT.

[MT Treasurer]

In what universe are "almost all the races right after ST . . . gonna be Bernie friendly"?

Who is saying this? Some (ID, ND, WA, etc.) obviously are, though not all of them. Coming as someone who generally likes your posts, and thinks that you do a good job of checking your bias in your R vs. D predictions and analysis, I think you could do a better job of checking your bias in this particular primary.

It’s pretty obvious who I was referring to (I even put the ". . ." to emphasize that I was quoting one particular poster). It wasn’t even supposed to be a mockery of his post, I am genuinely curious why he believes the primary calendar favors Sanders after ST (which was already going to be extremely favorable to Sanders according to many of his supporters). RI already made a lenghty post detailing the challenges Sanders faces in the coming months, so I’ll refer you to it if you’re actually interested in having this conversation.

Bias? I actually think most of Sanders' supporters (including on this forum) are genuinely well-intentioned and deserve credit for their laudable efforts to transform the party, but that doesn’t change my opinion of the candidate himself, who’s a charlatan at best and a dangerous fraud at worst. Believe it or not, I actually have a very low opinion of Joe Biden and certainly don’t want him to win the presidency either. 

Actually... one upside of Biden winning the nomination is that I won’t have to edit the 50+ general election polls I’ve already added to the Atlas database as Biden vs. Trump.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Not as amazing as the Pete moment, but Amy holding back tears as the endorsed Biden to carry on their shared vision was powerful as well. It takes a remarkable person to give up their dreams for the common good.

[BlueSwan]

Oh my god, I just watched the clip from Mayor Pete's endorsement and how Joe Biden compared him to Beau. I'm almost crying because of this. Both of them are have so much character.

Same!! I loved it!

Sh-t. I teared up watching this too:

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1234895060635934720?s=20

Pete has a bright future in President Biden’s admin.

I hate myself for having hope, but I really feel like Biden has a shot to win in the general. My head says no, my heart says yes.

Just saw it. It was pretty great, yeah.

[BlueSwan]

Pete should probably give the convention keynote speech.

[Oryxslayer]

Fmr. FBI Director James Comey endorses Joe Biden:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/jame-comey-backing-joe-biden-119614


Boooring. Would be more interested to know whether Comey would for vote for Bernie if he's the Democratic nominee in the end. At the very least, having been fired by Trump deserves going full ABT.

Biden summarily rejected his endorsement.

[President Johnson]

Fmr. FBI Director James Comey endorses Joe Biden:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/jame-comey-backing-joe-biden-119614


Boooring. Would be more interested to know whether Comey would for vote for Bernie if he's the Democratic nominee in the end. At the very least, having been fired by Trump deserves going full ABT.

And, ladies and gentlemen... let the God Emperor tweet... 3, 2, 1,....

[Panhandle Progressive]

Potential scenario outcomes once all the ST ballots have been tallied:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1234913885381169152

[Green Line]

Potential scenario outcomes once all the ST ballots have been tallied:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1234913885381169152

So the worst case scenario for Biden was his best case just a couple of days ago.  Wonderful!

[President Johnson]

Pete should probably give the convention keynote speech.

I agree! He's a very talented speaker. And he should be given a major cabinet position since the vice presidential will most likely be filled with a woman (Harris, Klobuchar, Demings or Barragan would be great). I like the idea of UN Ambassador, since that would raise his international profile and add foreign policy credentials to his list. Probably a safe bet now that he'll be part of the administration if Joe Biden is president next January. Beto could also be tapped for something like Commerce or Energy.