Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Bojack Horseman]

This was the text the Biden campaign sent out last night. I almost laughed.

Joe Biden's comeback starts here. Our momentum is soaring after our second place finish in Nevada, and we're getting ready for South Carolina and beyond.

[LabourJersey]

Isn't the funniest thing that a random mayor of a town in Indiana decided to run for president and he kneecapped Bernie's main challenger right out of the starting gate?

Are you referring to O'Rourke or Biden?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Isn't the funniest thing that a random mayor of a town in Indiana decided to run for president and he kneecapped Bernie's main challenger right out of the starting gate?

Are you referring to O'Rourke or Biden?

I've already forgotten Beto exists. For real.

[Grassroots]

Isn't the funniest thing that a random mayor of a town in Indiana decided to run for president and he kneecapped Bernie's main challenger right out of the starting gate?

Are you referring to O'Rourke or Biden?

I've already forgotten Beto exists. For real.

Remember when he was supposed to be a huge contender? He originally ran as a moderate. Then El Paso happened and then the true rhetoric came out.

[2016]

So much for that so called Biden Spin "Strong 2nd Place in Nevada". It's anything but strong. And he might even lose the Popular Vote to Mayor Pete.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This was the text the Biden campaign sent out last night. I almost laughed.

Joe Biden's comeback starts here. Our momentum is soaring after our second place finish in Nevada, and we're getting ready for South Carolina and beyond.

[junior chįmp]

I can't believe this guy isnt doing better

https://twitter.com/BetaODork/status/1230560816455249921?s=19

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bill Bradley endorsed Biden too

[Heebie Jeebie]

Biden should have never entered the race.  He was a weak candidate from the start whose universal name ID drew resources away from fresh, young candidates much more in line with him ideologically.  If Biden had never run, we'd be looking at a field like this right now, and not the travesty we've got.

[NOVA Green]

Biden IMHO is still in the best position to face down Sanders for a legit contender for the DEM nomination....

Bloomberg is a "Paper Tiger", who despite throwing almost a half Billion $$$ of his own cash, appears to be an individual who has very little appeal among the DEM base... bombing in the the NV debate is not something where the DEM base is gonna respect, as a "MOD ALT" to run between the "lanes"...

Steyer might do well after weeks of camping in SC speBnding massive Millions of his own $$$ and making the legit argument that he was first to call for impeaching Trump.

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Still much of the collapse of Biden likely went to candidates like Amy & Pete, who are now virtually on the edge of elimination from the DEM PRIM....

As I posited previously if Biden were to place 2nd in NV (Which it appears that he did), and possibly wins SC (Where the odds were in his favor to starts, and yeah it might be a close race between him and Bernie, but now looking like Biden will win (Despite Bernie numbers among AAs in SC), there is a game on....

Biden wins SC puts him back in the ring, especially if Bloomberg gets demolished on the Tuesday debates....

Pretty clear that based upon national polling and NV results that Bernie will win big in Cali, and place close in Tejas (with possibly a very narrow or a decent size win)....

Biden is well placed to run as a Center-Left DEM in the Midwest States on 3/10 maybe does well in MO and MI, and then does really well on 3/17 in FL...

Maybe I might be on the pipe (NOT!), but there is a giant chunk of votes out there post ST, especially when we are likely to see a ton of drop outs, many of whom prefer Bernie as second fiddles, and many others of whom support Biden as a second string...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Clyburn will endorse Biden on Wednesday...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/clyburn-to-endorse-biden-south-carolina-116986

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile "desperate Joe" is trying to persuade huge $$$ that he is the only one who can properly take on Sanders...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/23/sanders-democratic-establishment-panic-mode-117065

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I can't sleep, so I've been watching some of the morning pundits with their Sunday morning takes about Nevada. It's been fascinating watching their increasing nervousness about Biden's performance in SC and the "Bernie/Moderates Problem" in general.

My question is this:  Has the bar been so lowered over the last month that Biden getting any win in South Carolina, regardless of margin, makes him "The Comeback Kid"?

I've asked it before, but I'm getting the sense that something akin to a 26-24 Biden win is gonna be shouted about as "Biden on the up and up again!" as much as a 36-14 shellacking would be. Regardless if he'll take the delegate lead after SC, The spin is gonna be dizzying come Sunday morning.

Even on here, the downplaying has been fascinating from "Biden's gonna dominate South Carolina" to "He'll get a solid win" to "He might win by 5%" to "Just a win would be great for him".

After three relatively close primaries in 2008 (Iowa being debatable), Obama gained further legitimacy in SC with a 29% margin of victory. In 2016, Clinton reestablished dominance with a crushing 47% margin.

I feel, for Biden to remove all doubt of his troubling performance, he has to be above a single digit margin of victory. And if he wants to have the most delegates going into Super Tuesday, he's gonna have to get around a 20% margin + one of Steyer/Sanders below 15% (Sanders for best case scenario). Either that or hope the field is so fractured that he's the only candidate scraping past viability

[John Dule]

I can't sleep, so I've been watching some of the morning pundits with their Sunday morning takes about Nevada. It's been fascinating watching their increasing nervousness about Biden's performance in SC.

My question is this:  Has the bar been so lowered over the last month that Biden getting any win in South Carolina, regardless of margin, makes him "The Comeback Kid"?

I've asked it before, but I'm getting the sense that something akin to a 26-24 Biden win is gonna be shouted about as "Biden on the up and up again!". The spin is gonna be dizzying come Sunday morning.

Even on here, the downplaying has been fascinating from "Biden's gonna dominate South Carolina" to "He'll get a solid win" to "He might win by 5%" to "Just a win would be great for him"

I have been thinking about this too (and I also can't sleep). The truth is that most Americans don't keep up with politics, let alone know the predicted margins for any given candidate in any given state. They don't know where Biden is and isn't expected to do well. They will listen to what the media says and base their conclusions on what they're hearing from the pundits. While MSNBC and its ilk will probably spin hard for Biden, I don't think the cable news shows and publications will be able to cover for him if he wins it by less than 5%. I can't imagine they'd be hackish enough to portray that as an absolute win on his part. Well, I guess I've been wrong before.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It looks like Dems are doing it again and trying to stop Bernie will Biden's endorsement,  they didnt learn last time. That Bernie Bros voted third party and cost Hilary the election on the back of Gary Johnson.  Bernie will be the nominee

[MillennialModerate]

It looks like Dems are doing it again and trying to stop Bernie will Biden's endorsement,  they didnt learn last time. That Bernie Bros voted third party and cost Hilary the election on the back of Gary Johnson.  Bernie will be the nominee

You sound awfully nervous for someone whose candidate is clearly the front runner

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I can't believe this guy isnt doing better

https://twitter.com/BetaODork/status/1230560816455249921?s=19

I like the impression of the old black couple. Almost like "why are we still here?"

[2016]

Biden is spending the entire week including Saturday 29th (The Day of the SC Primary) in South Carolina. Sanders is in SC until Friday, then heads to Richmond, Virginia Saturday & Sunday.

When has Biden last campaigned in a Super Tuesday State? He is really relying on surrogates (Endorsers) in the respective States and their State Infrastructures. That is not a good place to be even if he wins SC.

Now compare that to Sanders who has apparently LEGIONS of Volunteers knocking on Doors in all the March 3 States.

So my Question is this: Where does Joe Biden go from SC (should he win it)?

[2016]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

[Oryxslayer]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

He doesn't win. Biden's strategy is to reinforce and then build a citadel around the African American and extremely elderly White vote. Maybe others will willingly enter his fortress as the race progresses, but that is secondary. He wants to carve out his niche in one of the communities that Bernie struggles to capture (and who control ~30% of conversation delegates), and then hold onto that niche no matter what. With luck, the other Bernie-warry groups sort themselves out in a manner that allows Bidens citadel to stand strong in Milwaukee.

Step one of this process was to get all the Free press from Nevada showing that you still are still relevant and can carry votes in the AA community. Step two is to win SC, hopefully convincingly, and get significant momentum solely in the AA community. Step three than is to rack up wins in the southern Super Tuesday States (divided wins, but wins) and prove your relevance. This path should be viable enough to get all the AA states into the tent. Thanks to all the southern states being frontloaded into March, Biden can strike while the iron is hot. Only Louisiana, DC, Maryland, and Delaware are after March when the question of whether we are going to the convention or not should be resolved.

[2016]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

He doesn't win. Biden's strategy is to reinforce and then build a citadel around the African American and extremely elderly White vote. Maybe others will willingly enter his fortress as the race progresses, but that is secondary. He wants to carve out his niche in one of the communities that Bernie struggles to capture (and who control ~30% of conversation delegates), and then hold onto that niche no matter what. With luck, the other Bernie-warry groups sort themselves out in a manner that allows Bidens citadel to stand strong in Milwaukee.

Step one of this process was to get all the Free press from Nevada showing that you still are still relevant and can carry votes in the AA community. Step two is to win SC, hopefully convincingly, and get significant momentum solely in the AA community. Step three than is to rack up wins in the southern Super Tuesday States (divided wins, but wins) and prove your relevance. This path should be viable enough to get all the AA states into the tent. Thanks to all the southern states being frontloaded into March, Biden can strike while the iron is hot. Only Louisiana, DC, Maryland, and Delaware are after March when the question of whether we are going to the convention or not should be resolved.

Biden ain't popular anymore. Give it up! He won't win.

[Oryxslayer]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

He doesn't win. Biden's strategy is to reinforce and then build a citadel around the African American and extremely elderly White vote. Maybe others will willingly enter his fortress as the race progresses, but that is secondary. He wants to carve out his niche in one of the communities that Bernie struggles to capture (and who control ~30% of conversation delegates), and then hold onto that niche no matter what. With luck, the other Bernie-warry groups sort themselves out in a manner that allows Bidens citadel to stand strong in Milwaukee.

Step one of this process was to get all the Free press from Nevada showing that you still are still relevant and can carry votes in the AA community. Step two is to win SC, hopefully convincingly, and get significant momentum solely in the AA community. Step three than is to rack up wins in the southern Super Tuesday States (divided wins, but wins) and prove your relevance. This path should be viable enough to get all the AA states into the tent. Thanks to all the southern states being frontloaded into March, Biden can strike while the iron is hot. Only Louisiana, DC, Maryland, and Delaware are after March when the question of whether we are going to the convention or not should be resolved.

Biden ain't popular anymore. Give it up! He won't win.

I don't support Biden. I don't like any of the 7 running. I'm just looking at the data, his movements, and projecting the actions of a rational actor .

[2016]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

He doesn't win. Biden's strategy is to reinforce and then build a citadel around the African American and extremely elderly White vote. Maybe others will willingly enter his fortress as the race progresses, but that is secondary. He wants to carve out his niche in one of the communities that Bernie struggles to capture (and who control ~30% of conversation delegates), and then hold onto that niche no matter what. With luck, the other Bernie-warry groups sort themselves out in a manner that allows Bidens citadel to stand strong in Milwaukee.

Step one of this process was to get all the Free press from Nevada showing that you still are still relevant and can carry votes in the AA community. Step two is to win SC, hopefully convincingly, and get significant momentum solely in the AA community. Step three than is to rack up wins in the southern Super Tuesday States (divided wins, but wins) and prove your relevance. This path should be viable enough to get all the AA states into the tent. Thanks to all the southern states being frontloaded into March, Biden can strike while the iron is hot. Only Louisiana, DC, Maryland, and Delaware are after March when the question of whether we are going to the convention or not should be resolved.

Biden ain't popular anymore. Give it up! He won't win.

I don't support Biden. I don't like any of the 7 running. I'm just looking at the data, his movements, and projecting the actions of a rational actor .

I think Clyburns Endorsement is overstated as Nate Silver is correctly pointing out. This ain't 2016. Biden not only needs a win in SC and the March 3 Southern States. He needs to win them BIG.
Sandern will be viable in all of the March 3 States and I've seen Polls where Biden might not be getting over that 15 % threshold namely Maine, Utah, Colorado, maybe Massachusetts.
Sanders is using a similar strategy Obama used to beat Hillary in 2008. He is running up big margins in CA, UT, CO, VT, MA, ME. I'm not sure how Biden can counter that when he spent NO Money on March 3 and barely set a foot in those States since losing NH. The Biden Campaign is in survival mode banking on a Debate Flop by Sanders now. That's the only way he can get back into this.

Biden spending the entire week in SC tells you in fact how SC has shifted and how much Uncle Joe is on Defense here.

[Oryxslayer]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

He doesn't win. Biden's strategy is to reinforce and then build a citadel around the African American and extremely elderly White vote. Maybe others will willingly enter his fortress as the race progresses, but that is secondary. He wants to carve out his niche in one of the communities that Bernie struggles to capture (and who control ~30% of conversation delegates), and then hold onto that niche no matter what. With luck, the other Bernie-warry groups sort themselves out in a manner that allows Bidens citadel to stand strong in Milwaukee.

Step one of this process was to get all the Free press from Nevada showing that you still are still relevant and can carry votes in the AA community. Step two is to win SC, hopefully convincingly, and get significant momentum solely in the AA community. Step three than is to rack up wins in the southern Super Tuesday States (divided wins, but wins) and prove your relevance. This path should be viable enough to get all the AA states into the tent. Thanks to all the southern states being frontloaded into March, Biden can strike while the iron is hot. Only Louisiana, DC, Maryland, and Delaware are after March when the question of whether we are going to the convention or not should be resolved.

Biden ain't popular anymore. Give it up! He won't win.

I don't support Biden. I don't like any of the 7 running. I'm just looking at the data, his movements, and projecting the actions of a rational actor .

I think Clyburns Endorsement is overstated as Nate Silver is correctly pointing out. This ain't 2016. Biden not only needs a win in SC and the March 3 Southern States. He needs to win them BIG.
Sandern will be viable in all of the March 3 States and I've seen Polls where Biden might not be getting over that 15 % threshold namely Maine, Utah, Colorado, maybe Massachusetts.
Sanders is using a similar strategy Obama used to beat Hillary in 2008. He is running up big margins in CA, UT, CO, VT, MA, ME. I'm not sure how Biden can counter that when he spent NO Money on March 3 and barely set a foot in those States since losing NH. The Biden Campaign is in survival mode banking on a Debate Flop by Sanders now. That's the only way he can get back into this.

Biden spending the entire week in SC tells you in fact how SC has shifted and how much Uncle Joe is on Defense here.

Maybe you didn't read my first post. Biden has no path to the nomination without the convention. Therefore, he doesn't care about the states unreachable after he lost the non-AA vote in IA/NH. There are other candidates better positioned to to win delegates there. Now I am skeptical of his chances even at said convention, but Bidens goal right now is to fortify those demographics still approachable, win states where they make up the majority of the vote, and ignore/boost others in other states so that Bernie doesn't go unchallenged.

This is the strategy Biden has telegraphed since the NV debate.