Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Adam Griffin]

Issues regarding state/national polls have already been addressed, but: I wonder if by the same metric, Donald Trump was perceived as more "ideologically extreme" than Hillary Clinton in 2016?

If not, then we know that the campaign can shift this narrative any which way.

If so, then it obviously doesn't matter.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The difference in Biden and Sanders’ leads against Trump in Jose polls is statistically insignificant and a statistician of Morris’s background is negligent not to mention that

The fact that Biden consistently does 1-2 better than Bernie in pretty much EVERY poll though, and usually better than that median when there is a discrepancy, DOES point to it being statistically significant. Also the fact that Biden's "undecideds" are far more favorable to him than Bernie's are, as Bernie has consolidated the younger vote to an extent Biden has not yet.

I don’t know what stats class you took, but that is still not a conclusion supported by statistically significant empirical data

The margin of error also could be a margin of error in favor of Biden

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Issues regarding state/national polls have already been addressed, but: I wonder if by the same metric, Donald Trump was perceived as more "ideologically extreme" than Hillary Clinton in 2016?

If not, then we know that the campaign can shift this narrative any which way.

If so, then it obviously doesn't matter.

Not exactly the same, but Clinton was viewed as more consistently liberal than Trump was conservative.



https://www.people-press.org/2016/07/14/voters-perceptions-of-the-candidates-traits-ideology-and-impact-on-issues/

[Bidenworth2020]

The difference in Biden and Sanders’ leads against Trump in Jose polls is statistically insignificant and a statistician of Morris’s background is negligent not to mention that

The fact that Biden consistently does 1-2 better than Bernie in pretty much EVERY poll though, and usually better than that median when there is a discrepancy, DOES point to it being statistically significant. Also the fact that Biden's "undecideds" are far more favorable to him than Bernie's are, as Bernie has consolidated the younger vote to an extent Biden has not yet.

I don’t know what stats class you took, but that is still not a conclusion supported by statistically significant empirical data

Maybe on its face it doesn't point to a major edge for Biden on the electability front, but a deeper dive into the points to this conclusion as well. The reason Bernie is keeping so close to Biden right now is due to 1) already picking up demographics that Biden has not yet fully consolidated, but will inevitably once the general begins and 2) not having been touched by negative ads,.on either side really. This is seen by Bernie's overwhelming edge in "trustworthiness", compared to Biden and the others to a lesser extent. He has started to receive some of this treatment due to his rise (though obviously not the real attack material) If you do not think Republicans will nullify that edge to an immeasurable extent, I have a bridge to sell you.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Biden is triaging New Hampshire. Which is not something one would do if they think they’ll win Iowa.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden is triaging New Hampshire. Which is not something one would do if they think they’ll win Iowa.

He "forgot" about Iowa, or maybe he just gave up on it:

SALEM, N.H. — Joe Biden has said he doesn’t need to win the first presidential primary state in the nation — and he’s campaigning like it.

[Donerail]

Biden is triaging New Hampshire. Which is not something one would do if they think they’ll win Iowa.

He "forgot" about Iowa, or maybe he just gave up on it:

SALEM, N.H. — Joe Biden has said he doesn’t need to win the first presidential primary state in the nation — and he’s campaigning like it.

Iowa is a caucus.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1223225311870976001

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden is triaging New Hampshire. Which is not something one would do if they think they’ll win Iowa.

He "forgot" about Iowa, or maybe he just gave up on it:

SALEM, N.H. — Joe Biden has said he doesn’t need to win the first presidential primary state in the nation — and he’s campaigning like it.

Iowa is a caucus.

I think the article meant to the nomination as a whole as the "primary", or otherwise the article was edited poorly or something like that, or Biden made an oopsie.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1223314234513272834

Biden potentially facing money problems headed into March?

[Xing]

Biden is triaging New Hampshire. Which is not something one would do if they think they’ll win Iowa.

NH is probably the least important early state for Biden, though. He can afford to lose it badly if he wins big in SC and takes either IA or NV.

[Donerail]

Iowa is a caucus.

I think the article meant to the nomination as a whole as the "primary", or otherwise the article was edited poorly or something like that, or Biden made an oopsie.

No, they're just very picky about these things! New Hampshire loves to bill itself as the "first primary" — state law actually specifies that it must be held a week before any other primary, and only the fact that Iowa is a caucus state prevents a major fight over who gets to be first every time. It does not make much sense to me, but I haven't had my brain rotted by decades of maple/corn syrup, and those are the people in charge for the moment.

[American2020]

Biden: 'Sure would like' Michelle Obama as vice president

oe Biden said that he would like former first lady Michelle Obama to be his vice president and Barack Obama to be a Supreme Court justice.

"Would you consider appointing Obama for the Supreme Court?" a man in the crowd asked the former vice president on Tuesday.

"Yeah, I would, and I don't think he'd do it. He'd be a great Supreme Court justice," Biden, 77, responded.

"Second question is: Which Obama?" the man said as the room reacted with awes and applause.

"Well, I sure would like Michelle to be the vice president," Biden said and laughed. "They're both incredibly qualified people, I mean, and they're such decent, honorable people."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-sure-would-like-michelle-obama-as-vice-president

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden is triaging New Hampshire. Which is not something one would do if they think they’ll win Iowa.

NH is probably the least important early state for Biden, though. He can afford to lose it badly if he wins big in SC and takes either IA or NV.

It seems SC is the only important early state for Biden

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1223314234513272834
Biden potentially facing money problems headed into March?

I think everybody is except Bernie. Impeachment just sucks all the air.


May be Bloomberg has a path after all.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/emilyelarsen/status/1223430107064389636?s=20

great response from Biden.  he reminds me of my dad sometimes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1223579534907277313

[Statilius the Epicurean]

https://twitter.com/CleveWootson/status/1223660471305363456?s=20

Get em, Joe!

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://twitter.com/CleveWootson/status/1223660471305363456?s=20

Get em, Joe!

Who says Biden's events are boring!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This man is going to get absolutely demolished in the Caucus. It's really hard to imagine a less skilled politician. Jeb! was much better at this; the only problem is he had stiffer competition.

[GeneralMacArthur]

This is some funny sh*t right here

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1223661114594070529

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1223661543142973441

[Bidenworth2020]

This is some funny sh*t right here

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1223661114594070529

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1223661543142973441

This is what I love about Biden-- like it or not, most other candidates besides maybe Bernie would blow up about stuff like this.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Actually Buttigieg was very cool about these disruptors as well.

Bernie, as far as I know, only does rallies and never has to deal with this kind of thing.

[James Monroe]

Those punk asses got the treatment they've deserved. How dared they go to a pubic venue with President Obama VP and make sarcastic jabs towards him? 

[Bidenworth2020]

Actually Buttigieg was very cool about these disruptors as well.

Bernie, as far as I know, only does rallies and never has to deal with this kind of thing.

Butti seems to be pretty thin-skinned at times, at least in debates. I won't go through his events, but I do not think he would be totally cool about stuff like this. Not necessarily blaming him, I just think Biden has over time become more comfortable with the fact that half the country will always hate him and doesn't freak out about it.