Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/melbournecoal/status/1220514333223981063

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/melbournecoal/status/1220514333223981063

From that story:

A 55-year-old woman of African and Indian descent with law enforcement credentials, Ms. Harris was already likely to be on Mr. Biden’s short list, should he emerge as the nominee. Yet she could bolster her chances to be his running mate if she backed his campaign at a critical time, particularly if he did not win in either Iowa or New Hampshire next month and needed a boost in Nevada and South Carolina. And even if she is not chosen for vice president, she would be a leading contender for a cabinet post, such as attorney general.
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The risk for Ms. Harris would be if she were to get behind Mr. Biden only to see him lose in California, which votes on March 3 as part of Super Tuesday. A survey of the state’s Democratic voters, conducted this month by the Public Policy Institute of California survey, found that Mr. Biden was in second place to Mr. Sanders, of Vermont. But the poll highlighted the strength of the progressive bloc in the state: Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren combined were capturing 50 percent of the vote.

Rose Kapolczynski, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said Ms. Harris would not damage her prospects for re-election in 2022 by backing Mr. Biden. But if Democrats were to lose the presidency this fall, supporting him could shape how she was perceived by the left, were she to run again for president four years from now.

“It just depends on where she wants to go,” Ms. Kapolczynski said. “Is she interested in vice president or a cabinet position? Or is she looking ahead to another campaign and how she’ll be positioned then?”

The story also notes that Biden and Harris have “remained in contact since she exited the race and had a long conversation in the immediate aftermath of her departure.”

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

https://twitter.com/melbournecoal/status/1220514333223981063

From that story:

A 55-year-old woman of African and Indian descent with law enforcement credentials, Ms. Harris was already likely to be on Mr. Biden’s short list, should he emerge as the nominee. Yet she could bolster her chances to be his running mate if she backed his campaign at a critical time, particularly if he did not win in either Iowa or New Hampshire next month and needed a boost in Nevada and South Carolina. And even if she is not chosen for vice president, she would be a leading contender for a cabinet post, such as attorney general.
.
.
.
The risk for Ms. Harris would be if she were to get behind Mr. Biden only to see him lose in California, which votes on March 3 as part of Super Tuesday. A survey of the state’s Democratic voters, conducted this month by the Public Policy Institute of California survey, found that Mr. Biden was in second place to Mr. Sanders, of Vermont. But the poll highlighted the strength of the progressive bloc in the state: Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren combined were capturing 50 percent of the vote.

Rose Kapolczynski, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said Ms. Harris would not damage her prospects for re-election in 2022 by backing Mr. Biden. But if Democrats were to lose the presidency this fall, supporting him could shape how she was perceived by the left, were she to run again for president four years from now.

“It just depends on where she wants to go,” Ms. Kapolczynski said. “Is she interested in vice president or a cabinet position? Or is she looking ahead to another campaign and how she’ll be positioned then?”

The story also notes that Biden and Harris have “remained in contact since she exited the race and had a long conversation in the immediate aftermath of her departure.”

Like there is any doubt that this god-awful opportunist and joke of a candidate is going to endorse Biden.  Luckily, being a pre-Iowa dropout with 5% in the polls when her campaign crashed and burned means you're not going to be moving the needle very much. 

[Ebsy]

The k-hive has already been waging war on Biden's behalf so not sure what else Harris has to offer.

[NOVA Green]

One SC elected official says something, and it becomes "significant opposition in SC's black community."
K.
Please stop. You are better than this.

So endorsements from minor elected officials were signs of his support in that community, but one of those same elected officials retracting her endorsements is not a sign of problems? I guess you just don't care to listen to women of color.

Well to be fair, I'm not sure you can call Dalhi Myers just a "minor elected official", considering she is the Vice-Chair of the Richland County Council in the 2nd largest (and most Urban County in the State), within the largest Metro Area located solely within SC (~800k) where ~20% of Black Voters are located.

One could certainly perhaps make an argument that the endorsement from a Middle-Aged Black Lady from SC who considers herself a "conservative Democrat" and has won a Senior elected position within a large local jurisdiction (Not exactly Bernie's area of strong performance in '16) is perhaps indicative that Biden's position in SC is much more vulnerable than perhaps commonly assumed by pundits and Atlas posters alike.

For example: Here is a Politico article from Yesterday regarding Steyer's unexpected surge in SC...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/22/tom-steyer-south-carolina-surge-102343

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/melbournecoal/status/1220514333223981063

She's angling to the VP slot. But not the worst move either. As former Harris supporter, I'm more and more leaning towards Biden, despite some reservations. It's just that each of the other didn't convince me why they're better. Maybe Warren, but I'm not sure she has still a path and is able to defeat the most dangerous prez ever.

[redjohn]

The biggest irony of this race might end up being Bloomberg's candidacy. He's spending big in Super Tuesday states, and might get double digits in southern states while falling short of delegate thresholds. It's hard to overstate how detrimental this will be for Biden. His campaign hangs on the idea that he can rack up huge delegate leads in the south, but will it be enough to counter Sanders?

[OneJ]

Honestly, Bloomberg running is probably a blessing in disguise. Biden would likely be ahead by more had he not jumped in near the last minute.

[The Free North]

No one liked Harris, why would she think her endorsement will be a factor in SC/NV when she could barely poll above like 3% there? I don't understand how Biden thinks she has any political clout.

[coloradocowboi]

If I were Kamala, I would sit this out.

Bernie is extremely well-organized in California, surging with Latinos, and would actually benefit more than anywhere else from Warren and Buttigieg dropping out here than elsewhere because Biden is just not a good fit for California. In LA, where I live, Biden has no presence, is extremely disorganized, and cruising for a real beating. I can't even imagine what the situation is like in the East Bay.

Not only would it be pointless to back a horse that's probably gonna lose, but it will draw even more attention to her constant flip-flopping and self-serving tendencies. Her approval rating in the state sank a bit during the campaign and she needs to bring it back up, otherwise Tom Steyer will run against her in 2022 and probably beat her (which is his real endgame with the Bernie pandering). Her strategic interest is in sitting it out, making a bunch of nothing statements positively about both candidates, and jumping on the bandwagon after it left the station.

[President Johnson]

Another great ad. Whomever the campaign hired for the ads does a heck of a job.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Another great ad. Whomever the campaign hired for the ads does a heck of a job.

Jesus that's so good.  The transition from Bull Connor to MLK as he says "those who fan the flames of hate end up drawing forth the next wave of progress" really hits you.

If only Biden had $20M to run this during the Superbowl.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1220813019917111297

[American2020]

How Joe Biden Will Float to Victory

There are two theories of what Democratic voters want right now. We’ve been living through a political moment characterized not just by anger but by an endless scream of reaction and response. Trump’s performance is largely legible as a furious reaction to President Barack Obama; he’s tried, with obsessive zeal, to undo everything his predecessor achieved, from the Iran deal to the Affordable Care Act. Trump’s more original initiatives have been reactive too, driven not by vision but resentment: family separations and the “Muslim ban” reflected the wishes of an embattled white conservative base happy to sacrifice things like human rights, an independent judiciary, and a free press if it could punish and dehumanize immigrants. Whether this rage against minorities is motivated by racism, “economic anxiety,” or some mix of the two is a matter of some debate; what it clarifies—on both sides of the aisle—is that most Americans aren’t content. Quality of life has gone down. One theory of how to respond to all this isn’t reactive but proactive: As the left has observed, income inequality is at an all-time high, corporations pay virtually nothing in taxes, and climate change will only accentuate the crises that currently exist. According to candidates like Warren and Sanders, part of the electorate wants change. Tired of the technocratic centrism that has enriched the 1 percent and slowly eroded the hopes of the rest of the country, voters want a system that actually responds to their needs. Achieving such a system will require enormous energy. Warren’s and Sanders’ agendas require work and engagement. (They also have the potential to transform society.)

The other theory is that people are tired. They’re tired of reacting; they’re tired of change; they’re absolutely sick of engaging, emotionally and practically. They don’t want to be glued to the news anymore. They want to be able to safely tune out. This is the group for which the inert gas candidate has some appeal. Trump’s presidency has, for many Democrats, been an unending emergency that has required voters horrified at his actions to throw everything they can—and it’s not much—against an out-of-control executive. The airport protests after the Muslim ban, the uproar over family separations, the Women’s March all reflected an enormous popular will to stop Trump’s government from doing what it threatened to do. With a government unable or unwilling to check or balance itself, the public has had to go into overdrive and react nonstop: People have had to plug so many leaks in this sinking boat that many simply feel depleted. That the plugging of the leaks isn’t really working only exacerbates the exhaustion.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/01/joe-biden-democratic-primary-nomination-american-exhaustion.html

[Adam Griffin]

How Joe Biden Will Float to Victory

There are two theories of what Democratic voters want right now. We’ve been living through a political moment characterized not just by anger but by an endless scream of reaction and response. Trump’s performance is largely legible as a furious reaction to President Barack Obama; he’s tried, with obsessive zeal, to undo everything his predecessor achieved, from the Iran deal to the Affordable Care Act. Trump’s more original initiatives have been reactive too, driven not by vision but resentment: family separations and the “Muslim ban” reflected the wishes of an embattled white conservative base happy to sacrifice things like human rights, an independent judiciary, and a free press if it could punish and dehumanize immigrants. Whether this rage against minorities is motivated by racism, “economic anxiety,” or some mix of the two is a matter of some debate; what it clarifies—on both sides of the aisle—is that most Americans aren’t content. Quality of life has gone down. One theory of how to respond to all this isn’t reactive but proactive: As the left has observed, income inequality is at an all-time high, corporations pay virtually nothing in taxes, and climate change will only accentuate the crises that currently exist. According to candidates like Warren and Sanders, part of the electorate wants change. Tired of the technocratic centrism that has enriched the 1 percent and slowly eroded the hopes of the rest of the country, voters want a system that actually responds to their needs. Achieving such a system will require enormous energy. Warren’s and Sanders’ agendas require work and engagement. (They also have the potential to transform society.)

The other theory is that people are tired. They’re tired of reacting; they’re tired of change; they’re absolutely sick of engaging, emotionally and practically. They don’t want to be glued to the news anymore. They want to be able to safely tune out. This is the group for which the inert gas candidate has some appeal. Trump’s presidency has, for many Democrats, been an unending emergency that has required voters horrified at his actions to throw everything they can—and it’s not much—against an out-of-control executive. The airport protests after the Muslim ban, the uproar over family separations, the Women’s March all reflected an enormous popular will to stop Trump’s government from doing what it threatened to do. With a government unable or unwilling to check or balance itself, the public has had to go into overdrive and react nonstop: People have had to plug so many leaks in this sinking boat that many simply feel depleted. That the plugging of the leaks isn’t really working only exacerbates the exhaustion.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/01/joe-biden-democratic-primary-nomination-american-exhaustion.html

Terrible descriptors. All of the mentions about floating, exhaustion, water and gas make it sound like Biden is some sort of fish with a swim bladder problem.

[Rookie Yinzer]

otherwise Tom Steyer will run against her in 2022 and probably beat her

Sure Jan.

Kamala will be endorsing if Biden rolls through the first three. Maybe even as a part of a CBC push to block Bernie Sanders who has touted the support of a known racist pig.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

otherwise Tom Steyer will run against her in 2022 and probably beat her

Sure Jan.

Kamala will be endorsing if Biden rolls through the first three. Maybe even as a part of a CBC push to block Bernie Sanders who has touted the support of a known racist pig.

Didn’t you hate Biden just a short while ago? Why the sudden change of heart/if it’s because you prefer him to Sanders, why not someone who is moderate without the baggage like Klobuchar?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hillary literally ran this campaign against Trump four years ago. It didn't work then, why risk trying it again now? Drop the platitudes, get with the policies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is getting crushed in IA and NH, and likely lose NV, Bernie will be in a strong position going in Super Tuesday with a must win Va, UT, VT, CO, MN and ME.

[Mr. Smith]

How Joe Biden Will Float to Victory

There are two theories of what Democratic voters want right now. We’ve been living through a political moment characterized not just by anger but by an endless scream of reaction and response. Trump’s performance is largely legible as a furious reaction to President Barack Obama; he’s tried, with obsessive zeal, to undo everything his predecessor achieved, from the Iran deal to the Affordable Care Act. Trump’s more original initiatives have been reactive too, driven not by vision but resentment: family separations and the “Muslim ban” reflected the wishes of an embattled white conservative base happy to sacrifice things like human rights, an independent judiciary, and a free press if it could punish and dehumanize immigrants. Whether this rage against minorities is motivated by racism, “economic anxiety,” or some mix of the two is a matter of some debate; what it clarifies—on both sides of the aisle—is that most Americans aren’t content. Quality of life has gone down. One theory of how to respond to all this isn’t reactive but proactive: As the left has observed, income inequality is at an all-time high, corporations pay virtually nothing in taxes, and climate change will only accentuate the crises that currently exist. According to candidates like Warren and Sanders, part of the electorate wants change. Tired of the technocratic centrism that has enriched the 1 percent and slowly eroded the hopes of the rest of the country, voters want a system that actually responds to their needs. Achieving such a system will require enormous energy. Warren’s and Sanders’ agendas require work and engagement. (They also have the potential to transform society.)

The other theory is that people are tired. They’re tired of reacting; they’re tired of change; they’re absolutely sick of engaging, emotionally and practically. They don’t want to be glued to the news anymore. They want to be able to safely tune out. This is the group for which the inert gas candidate has some appeal. Trump’s presidency has, for many Democrats, been an unending emergency that has required voters horrified at his actions to throw everything they can—and it’s not much—against an out-of-control executive. The airport protests after the Muslim ban, the uproar over family separations, the Women’s March all reflected an enormous popular will to stop Trump’s government from doing what it threatened to do. With a government unable or unwilling to check or balance itself, the public has had to go into overdrive and react nonstop: People have had to plug so many leaks in this sinking boat that many simply feel depleted. That the plugging of the leaks isn’t really working only exacerbates the exhaustion.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/01/joe-biden-democratic-primary-nomination-american-exhaustion.html

This article could've been written in 2004 with only a few details changed, and look how taking Opt. B turned out then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden and his polls are looking worse and he is doing the same against Trump, that Bernie is against Biden. Hopefully, he gets crushed in every sing prary

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/us/politics/joe-hunter-biden-ukraine.html
How Joe Biden Talks About a Touchy Subject: His Son
As he runs for president, Mr. Biden has repeatedly faced questions about the overseas business dealings of his son, Hunter Biden. He has mostly kept his cool — but not always.

For Mr. Biden, the stream of questions about his son touches on a vulnerability for his candidacy and presents a fine line for him to navigate. As a former vice president, he wants to show that he exudes statesmanship but also wants to prove to Democrats desperate to oust Mr. Trump that he has the fortitude and temperament to take on the president.

He can be by turns calm or curt as he stresses that his son committed no wrongdoing in his overseas business dealings. For the most part, he has kept his cool, but he has also been prone to displays of anger.

“It’s a very personal issue,” said Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, who worked closely with Mr. Biden in the Obama administration when he acted as the de facto labor liaison. She said Mr. Trump was “an evil genius on the issue of trying to cut other people up, and cut them up this way.”

Stable Evil Genius, indeed!

[bilaps]

It's interesting looking at electability argument going from Biden campaign still. It's based on h2h numbers vs Trump while he's not still a nominee and from some battleground state polls. But, I would argue that his numbers in IA and NH really tell the story otherwise. Let's look at the last two A+ polls from IA, he polls at 15 and 17. He has been campaigning in Iowa, he has been on air in Iowa, he doesn't energize anyone. How the hell are you going to win general election with this level of enthusiasm is beyond me. I would take Pete and maybe even Klobuchar from the moderate lane as the more electable at this point. I would take Warren as well even though she alianated much of the Sanders supporters and practicaly ended her campaign colluding with CNN. It should be pretty clear that Sanders not Biden is the most electable now, and even Buttigieg at this point.

[Podgy the Bear]

It's interesting looking at electability argument going from Biden campaign still. It's based on h2h numbers vs Trump while he's not still a nominee and from some battleground state polls. But, I would argue that his numbers in IA and NH really tell the story otherwise. Let's look at the last two A+ polls from IA, he polls at 15 and 17. He has been campaigning in Iowa, he has been on air in Iowa, he doesn't energize anyone. How the hell are you going to win general election with this level of enthusiasm is beyond me. I would take Pete and maybe even Klobuchar from the moderate lane as the more electable at this point. I would take Warren as well even though she alianated much of the Sanders supporters and practicaly ended her campaign colluding with CNN. It should be pretty clear that Sanders not Biden is the most electable now, and even Buttigieg at this point.

So do you explain the NYT/Siena poll where Sanders is lagging Trump by a greater margin than Biden or Buttigieg?

[EJ24]

Would you say it's a lost cause at this point and that he's going to lose to either Sanders or Buttigieg? Or does he have a chance? If so, what should he be doing differently to persuade voters?