DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election

[Diouf]

SPP doubled their seat share from 7 to 14 seats. The leader Pia Olsen Dyhr did very well in Copenhagen and won 20 047 personal votes, but a new political star was born with this election as Jacob Mark won 23 213 personal votes in Zealand (7th overall). The soft-spoken 27-year old Mark was first elected in 2015, and increased in prominence throughout the term, ending up as parliamentary group leader for the party. He has been particularly visible on issues like child care and education, where he has led the charge against the government on the lack of teachers and kindergarten employees, including arranging several well-visited demonstrations. The party can count several young politicians in their new parliamentary group. In addition to Mark, the party had 5 debutants aged 30 or below elected to parliament. The most prominent among them is probably nurse student Signe Munk, who won 6 285 personal votes in Western Jutland. Finally, it is very nice to see Halime Oguz being elected in Copenhagen. She grew up in the ghetto, and her parents arranged a marriage for her at 17, but after years stuck, she managed to take an education, leave the husband and start her own life. Her tough criticism of the extremely conservative and patriarchal structures in the ghetto has helped SPP towards acknowledging the lack of integration and rights for women in many immigrant environments.

The Red-Green Alliance saw an unexpected decline in their fortunes and ended on 13 seats, one down. Party leader Pernille Skipper did really well in Copenhagen with 33 024 personal votes (3rd overall) which helped the party make a tiny progress in the capital while declining slightly in the rest of the country. Due to their choice of semi-closed lists, there isn't a great encouragement for many other candidates to go for many personal votes which is reflected in their results. It also means that their elected candidates were quite obvious. The party hopes that Ninosca Victoria R. Velásquez from Funen and Mai Villadsen can become the new young, female leaders for the party, which is in a constant need of new faces due to their rotation principle. Former People's Movement against EU MP, Søren Søndergaard, was re-elected and might be the most prominent experienced voice in the group, which also saw the previously mentioned return of the cult figure Jette Gottlieb.

[Colbert]

there is no more something like "the red block". The immigration policies of SD will allow them to form a minority governement, with support of the blue block on immigration, and support of left-wing parties +DFP on economics.


What a wonderful country !

[JonHawk]

Is Tommy Ahlers closer in policy to Inger Støjberg or Kristian Jensen?

[Diouf]

How was the vote in migrant areas compared to previous elections.

Three polling places in "ghettos", areas with high immigrant populations. Strong Social Liberal increases and Social Democrat losses in all three places. These are probably areas with the immigrants in the lower end of the education and earnings bond:

Globus 1, Aarhus Vest, Eastern Jutland: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F802751025.htm

Camp U, Odense East, Funen: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F601461035.htm

7.Nord, Brønshøj, Copenhagen: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F107101032.htm

[Diouf]

Is Tommy Ahlers closer in policy to Inger Støjberg or Kristian Jensen?

He probably represents a third pole. The urban business vote. He is an well-known founder of several succesful companies, and one of the investors in the Danish version of Dragons' Den. He hasn't spoken a lot about immigration in his short time as a politician, but before entering that world, he said: "Of course we need to ensure that our budgets can be kept in a time with increased refugee movements towards Europe, but that is a marginal problem compared to the challenge of transforming us into a global magnet for talented people from abroad". So generally softer on immigration than others in the party, or simply not as focused on it. But really into a lot of foreign workers, very green policies and good conditions for new start-ups. Jakob Ellemann-Jensen and Fatma Øktem in Aarhus as well as Jan E. Jørgensen from Copenhagen are probably in this grouping as well. And likely a few others, largely from the big cities. They are probably the furthest away from Støjberg, but also different from Jensen's centrist position. The question is of course whether politically different lines can still agree to stop Jensen, and make some sort of agreement between them of another division of the top posts.

[DavidB.]

So Ellemann-Jensen would be softer on immigration than Jensen?

[Diouf]

So Ellemann-Jensen would be softer on immigration than Jensen?

Would be is a much more difficult question to answer than has been. Ellemann-Jensen, who wasn't a politician at the time, left the Liberals in 2007. This was in protest against the tough line on immigration, and the straw that broke the camel's back was that the party warmly welcomed former Social Democrat Karen Jespersen, who uses very tough rhetoric, into the party. Also he was opposed to the big welfare spending. So he was shortly a member of the New Alliance which emerged shortly after. He rejoined the Liberals in 2009 after Løkke became leader. Jensen was of course a member of the government during all this time, so his issues with it can't have been as big.
It is hard to judge how much policy will change, and this also depends on the demands of support parties. Ellemann would probably have been more hesitant to accept things like the island for deportation centers, the burqa ban etc, but I doubt there would be major changes. Both him and Jensen are much less into the culture wars than Støjberg, but they know that most in the party and in the electorate prefer tough policies, so I would be surprised if the policy direction changed a lot. They might argue for these policies on economic reasons instead.

[YL]

Thank you now another stupid question - what exactly is the difference between Ventre, the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance? They also sound like three virtually identical parties that in most other countries they would be all one party

My impression is that the Liberal Alliance is a hard right libertarian outfit whereas Venstre and the Conservatives, which are historically separate parties from different traditions going back a long way even if they don't disagree on much now, are much more mainstream centre-right.

[Diouf]

Thank you now another stupid question - what exactly is the difference between Ventre, the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance? They also sound like three virtually identical parties that in most other countries they would be all one party

My impression is that the Liberal Alliance is a hard right libertarian outfit whereas Venstre and the Conservatives, which are historically separate parties from different traditions going back a long way even if they don't disagree on much now, are much more mainstream centre-right.

Yeah, Liberal Alliance is largely focused on reducing the size of the public sector, cutting taxes and regulations. Their rise until 2015/2016 was largely based on attracting Liberal and Conservative voters by attacking them for doing too little of this. Therefore, their trustworthiness has of course disappeared after joining these two parties in a government that couldn't carry out many such policies. Conservatives and Liberals are both quite mainstream right, with Conservatives more in favour of higher defense spending, tougher sentences, cutting taxes for high earners and companies, and a bit greener.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why did the Conservative People's Party increase their vote total?

[Diouf]

Deputy leader and Minister of Economy and Interior, Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille says that he won't seek to become Leader of Liberal Alliance. Thereby, it seems certain that the newly-elected 27-year old Alex Vanopslagh will become the new leader of the party. He was born in Épernay in France, and his father is French/Belgian, but the family moved to Denmark when Alex was five. He grew up in Struer and Herning in Western and Central Jutland. In 2014-2016, he was leader of LA Youth. In 2016, he graduated in political science from University of Copenhagen. In 2017, he was the lead candidate for LA in the Copenhagen local elections, and was elected a councillor with 3 563 personal votes. In this election, he was the lead candidate for the party in Western Jutland, and won 3 337 personal votes.



You can here his own pronounciation of the special name here: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10214058917448184&id=12860228293&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2F

[Former President tack50]

How was the vote in migrant areas compared to previous elections.

Three polling places in "ghettos", areas with high immigrant populations. Strong Social Liberal increases and Social Democrat losses in all three places. These are probably areas with the immigrants in the lower end of the education and earnings bond:

Globus 1, Aarhus Vest, Eastern Jutland: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F802751025.htm

Camp U, Odense East, Funen: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F601461035.htm

7.Nord, Brønshøj, Copenhagen: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F107101032.htm

Aren't the Social-Liberals right wing in economics? Surprised poor and uneducated inmigrants started voting for them Even if pissed at the SocialDemocrats, wouldn't they vote instead for the Socialist People's Party or Red-Green alliance?

[Diouf]

The Conservatives doubled their seat total to 12. Party leader Søren Pape Poulsen had his breakthrough with 22 223 personal votes (9th overall) in his Western Jutland constituency. The party's progress means that they are now again represented in all constituencies, except Bornholm. Their three ministers, Pape, Jarlov & Mercado all had great results, but parliamentary group leader and political spokesperson Mette Abildgaard also did really well in Northern Zealand with 9 101 votes (4th in the constituency). Three of their new MPs are experienced business women in their fifities without much political experience; it will be interesting to see how they manage the transformation into national politics.

The Alternative won 5 seats, down 4. Party leader Uffe Elbæk has lost a lot of his shine and only ended up with 7 587 personal votes in Copenhagen. His loyal ally and ideologoue Rasmus Nordqvist was re-elected. Spokesperson on employment, Torsten Gejl, is also re-elected, while headmaster Susanne Zimmer is a completely new figure. She was elected with the least personal votes of all MPs (774). Last, but not least the consultant Sikandar Siddique was elected in the Copenhagen Environs as the 2 154 personal votes he received was easily enough to beat the party's other candidates, and even ensured a small progress for the party in immigrant-heavy Brøndby. Siddique was a local councillor for the Social Democrats in Copenhagen 2005-2009, where his involvement with the Islamist organization Hizb ut-Tahrir caused criticism.

[Diouf]

How was the vote in migrant areas compared to previous elections.

Three polling places in "ghettos", areas with high immigrant populations. Strong Social Liberal increases and Social Democrat losses in all three places. These are probably areas with the immigrants in the lower end of the education and earnings bond:

Globus 1, Aarhus Vest, Eastern Jutland: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F802751025.htm

Camp U, Odense East, Funen: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F601461035.htm

7.Nord, Brønshøj, Copenhagen: https://kmdvalg.dk/FV/2019/F107101032.htm

Aren't the Social-Liberals right wing in economics? Surprised poor and uneducated inmigrants started voting for them Even if pissed at the SocialDemocrats, wouldn't they vote instead for the Socialist People's Party or Red-Green alliance?

Yeah, they are centre-right on economics, but they are opposed to the lower benefit levels for non-EU citizens. Partly it must be about local conditions. It seems like the Social Liberals have targeted these issues, and maybe convinced some important persons in the area to campaign for them. Also, Morten Østergaard is the Red Bloc leader who has campaigned the most against right wing immigration policies. At times, he almost matched Rasmus Paludan in making everything about immigration. Even in completely unrelated areas, he would then start talking about no more symbolic policies on immigration and no expensive island centres. But the Red-Green Alliance will certainly also have done well in several areas with many immigrants, particularly in Copenhagen. And as previously mentioned, the Alternative has had a few controversial immigrant candidates.

[mileslunn]

How long will it take to form government?  I've noticed in most European countries it tends to take a few months so with only two pre-determined blocs will it be quicker here or will it drag on for several months?

[Diouf]

Some pictures from the first day of negotiations. It's hard to judge how long it will take. I would think the centre-left parties should be able to agree to make Mette Frederiksen PM, but it's not certain. Even if that succeeds, I think several of the parties would like to show that it's serious and hard negotiations, which I guess would mean at least two weeks. It has sounded like both Red-Green Alliance and partciularly Social Liberals want a quite detailed agreement on future policy, which Social Democrats probably wants to avoid. Also Frederiksen won't be able to make many concession on immigration (with all centre-left parties) nor on economy (with Social Liberals).


Social Democrats. Mette Frederiksen, Henrik Sass Larsen & Nicolai Wammen


Liberals. Kristian Jensen, Lars Løkke Rasmussen & Karen Ellemann. DPP. Kristian Thulelsen Dahl & Peter Skaarup.


Social Liberals. Sofie Carsten Nielsen & Morten Østergaard.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

What happened with Johannne Schmidt-Niellsen? She wasnt on the list?

[Diouf]

Why did the Conservative People's Party increase their vote total?

They gained broadly from the all the other three Blue Bloc parties. According to DR's voter movements, only 33% of their voters also voted Conservative in 2015. 20% came from DPP, 13% from DPP and 12% from Liberals. They ended up as the sane, mainstream, true blue option. The Conservatives were quite calm and competent in government, while LA and DPP were locked in a constant battle as the two opposites inside the Bloc. The Liberals moved to the centre during 2019 and particularly during the campaign, which open up an even bigger space for them. And Pape Poulsen has been in charge of a popular increase in the number of police officers. He also positioned himself clearly against Tough Line towards the end of the campaign with strong attacks on Paludan's harrassment and cricticism of several police officers.

[Diouf]

The New Right enters parliament after their first election with 4 seats. Party leader Pernille Vermund did well in Southern Jutland and received 13 391 personal votes. Some times new parties who enter parliament can have a bunch of loonies, but the New Right has as normal and tested a parliamentary group as you can have as a brand new party. The four MPs are the four expected names, and have been prepared for years to enter parliament. Vermund herself is a former Conservative parliamentary candidate and a local councillor, Mette Thiesen is a also a former Conservative parliamentary candidate and was elected as the only New Right councillor at the 2017 local elections, deputy leader Peter Seier Christensen was previously a member of the board of a Conservative regional association and his brother Lars Seier Christensen has been a key investor and advisor for LA. Finally, Lars Boje Mathiesen is a former LA councillor in the deep red Aarhus, where he was a vocal and hardcore opposition voice, which is probably a good background to have with the role they are going to get in this term.

The Liberal Alliance dropped to 4 seats, down 9. The party's leader Anders Samuelsen lost his seat in Northern Zealand where he won 6 004 personal votes. It is very interesting how the party will develop. One of the four MPs, Henrik Dahl, made a vicious attack on Samuelsen the morning after the election, and while Samuelsen lost re-election, his loyal deputy Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille remains a MP. Henrik Dahl was a lone nationalconservative voice in the party (the only backbench MP to support the burqa ban), and there have been speculations about a possible defection to the New Right for long. And are Ammitzbøll-Bille and Minister of Transportation, Ole Birk Olesen, willing to stay on as MPs for a full term in a opposition role while rebuilding the party? And what about Samuelsen and the other big names who lost their seats? Will they continue to play a role in the party organization or completely leave it? It seems certain that Alex Vanopslagh will become the new leader, and it seems obvious for them to go back to a hardline liberal course. Birk Olesen and Ammitzbøll-Bille are eloquent ideologues and if they throw their energy behind it, the party could be slowly rebuilt in strong opposition to the new billions of welfare spending and taxes by Frederiksen's government. But there also seems to be a quite significant chance of a complete collapse of the party.

The Christian Democrats just failed to get elected. The recounted figures show them 200 votes away from a constituency seat in Western Jutland which would have given three seats in total. Their candidate there Kristian Andersen received 10 890 personal votes. New party leader Isabella Arendt also did well in Eastern Jutland, where she received 8 091 personal votes, while departing party leader Stig Grenov won 419 votes in Copenhagen.
The Tough Line vote was not as concentrated as one could have thought. Party leader Rasmus Paludan won 9 959 personal votes in Zealand, but the party only got 2.7% in that constituency, where the last seat was won on 4.03%. So they were closest to hitting the national 2.0% threshold, but fell short with 1.8%.
Klaus Riskær Pedersen won 3 067 personal votes in Copenhagen, and wasn't really close to being elected. The party's votes were quite evenly distributed across the country, where they received 0.8% in total. Pedersen has said that the party is being disbanded now, but that he will continue to participate in the political debate with his ideas.

[Diouf]

What happened with Johannne Schmidt-Niellsen? She wasnt on the list?

No, as mentioned earlier in the thread, she is the new leader of Save the Children in Denmark. Red-Green Alliance has a rotation principle, so you can't be a parliamentary candidate after having been in parliament for seven years straight. They also have some rules for parliamentary employees and board members.

[Diouf]

The share of Women in the parties. Both the Farose MPs are men, while both the Greenlandic MPs are women. So the overall number of female MPs is 70 (39.1%), the same number as the record from 2011.



Top 15 personal votes

1. Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrats, Northern Jutland. 43 489
2. Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Liberals, Zealand. 40 745
3. Pernille Skipper, Red-Green Alliance, Copenhagen. 33 024
4. Inger Støjberg, Liberals, Western Jutland. 28 420
5. Tommy Ahlers, Liberals, Copenhagen. 26 420
6. Nicolai Wammen, Social Democrats, Eastern Jutland. 23 427
7. Jacob Mark, SPP, Zealand. 23 213
8. Kristian Thulelsen Dahl, DPP, Southern Jutland. 23 142
9. Søren Pape Poulsen, Conservatives, Western Jutland. 22 223
10. Ida Auken, Social Liberals, Copenhagen. 21 723
11. Pia Olsen Dyhr, SPP, Copenhagen. 20 047
12. Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, Liberals, Eastern Jutland. 19 388
13. Preben Bang Henriksen, Liberals, Northern Jutland. 18 459
14. Karsten Lauritzen, Liberals, Northern Jutland. 18 335
15. Magnus Heunicke, Social Democrats, Zealand. 18 214

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

What happened with Johannne Schmidt-Niellsen? She wasnt on the list?

No, as mentioned earlier in the thread, she is the new leader of Save the Children in Denmark. Red-Green Alliance has a rotation principle, so you can't be a parliamentary candidate after having been in parliament for seven years straight. They also have some rules for parliamentary employees and board members.

Fair enough

[Diouf]

Epinion voter movements can be seen on DR web page here. Note this is based on the 4 500 person exit poll, which was not super on point. But better numbers will likely only come a fair bit later when the election studies are made.
You can press on the party letters in both ends of the streams. So if you press "O" to the left, you can see who 2015 DPP voters, voted for in 2019. Or you can press "P"  to the right, and see who Tough Line voters, voted for back in 2015. The smaller the party, the less certain these movements will be.
Several interesting things can be found. As expected, the Social Democrats was the main cross-bloc mover by getting DPP and Liberal voters, while the Social Liberals also managed to attract a fair number of Liberal and Liberal Alliance voters.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/vaelgervandringer

[BlueSwan]

What happened with Johannne Schmidt-Niellsen? She wasnt on the list?

No, as mentioned earlier in the thread, she is the new leader of Save the Children in Denmark. Red-Green Alliance has a rotation principle, so you can't be a parliamentary candidate after having been in parliament for seven years straight. They also have some rules for parliamentary employees and board members.

This rotation principle also means that the current leader, Pernille Skipper, can't run next election. The red-green alliance are really making things difficult for themselves with this principle. This election also saw the loss of by far their strongest MP on financial matters (something often neglected by the left wing), Palle Dragsted. So far the party has been quite succesful in constantly finding new talented people to put in front, but I wonder how long that will last. I'm not sure when they will make the next leadership change, but seeing that Skipper can't run next time, surely they will have to do so quite soon.

[Diouf]

Henrik Sass Larsen will not be a minister, goes on sick leave, retires as parliamentary candidate



According to state broadcaster DR, the expected Finance Minister Henrik Sass Larsen has told Mette Frederiksen that he is going on sick leave and will not be available as a minister in her government. He has also decided to retire as a parliamentary candidate, i.e. not running in the next general election.

Sass writes on Facebook under the title A Price I Won't Pay: "Politicans are treated in a tough and brutal way. And for me, a lenghty and tabloidy treatment seems to have been chosen. Everyone has a limit, including me. And that limit has been breached far ago. I think most people have been able to see that I'm not feeling well. I've been trying to fight back after a depression around New Year, but I haven't suceeded. So now I need to go on sick leave to be completely healthy".