Are Republicans ...

[angus]

Possibly.  I remember knowing that Bush would win in 2004.  I also remember some Kerry supporters who really thought he would win.  Like Anvi, I was surprised at the expectations.  This time, I feel like Obama will probably win, but there are Romney supporters who think he has a good shot.

I don't think it's quite the same.  I felt certain Bush would win in 2004.  This time, I feel like Obama will probably win but I don't feel as confident as I did in 2004.  And it's different this time.  Romney and Obama are tied, within MOE, in recent national polls.  In the EC, they both have about 200 votes solid, which leaves at least 130 up for grabs.  It will probably be Obama 281 to Romney 257, but I'm not very confident about it.  I don't think I'm deluded, and I don't think other Romney supporters are.

[angus]

...In the EC, they both have about 200 votes solid, which leaves at least 130 up for grabs. 

Haha, you must be one of those who think Pennsylvania is a tossup or something.  Maybe even Michigan?

I think Obama will win Pennsylvania and Michigan.  Like I said, he'll probably get somewhere in the neighborhood of 280 or more electoral votes.  PA and MI included.  I'm just saying that they both seem to have a floor of at least 200.  And no, PA and MI are not supporting the floor.  They're more like cornerstones.  Well, one cornerstone and one keystone, maybe.  Anyway, I don't disagree that Obama will probably win.  PV will be a tie, of course, but Obama will win where it counts.  I'm just saying I'm not as confident about Obama this year as I was about Bush in 2004.  As I recall, you were just about as confident at that time, just before you went commando, after you had your "epiphany" or whatever it was that caused your sudden realignment.

[angus]

Then we're equally delusional.  I don't have any strong belief either, that was the point.  I'm just saying I think he'll win.  I'm not sure we disagree here.  Do you just like arguing?

What was my prediction map?  I posted it long ago.  There's a search feature.  I always botch that and have to use the back button and it resets or something and I get something totally ridiculous.  Okay, here it is:

Obama 285.  Romney 253.  (ignore the confidence map.  I never really take that one seriously.)

My map is almost the same as yours.  We only differ on Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

[angus]

Obama's the most Muslim-friendly president ever, and our Ambassador was still assassinated.  I support Muslim populism but it would be foolish to choose a president based on his favoribilitity with the global Muslim population.

Actually, Obama is not polling well among foreign muslims at the moment.  15% on average in 21 countries, 7% in Pakistan.   

http://dailycaller.com/2012/06/14/poll-finds-obamas-approval-among-muslims-reaches-new-lows/