Primaries to watch Tuesday (3/5/24) (Super Tuesday) (outside of presidential)

[2016]

I am more interested what impact Nikki Haley has Down Ballot.

Consensus was that if Haley stayed in the Race through Super Tuesday it would help House Members like Carl in AL.

[2016]

Bold Prediction: When all the Votes are counted in California Republican Steve Garvey will finish AHEAD of Rep. Adam Schiff. What a hilarious loss by serial liar and coward Adam, lol

[2016]

The numbers from CA are disproportionately-Democratic early vote, right? Otherwise they're actually quite good for Democrats, on the whole.

Notably, CA-31 is actually within single digits of being an R-on-R runoff (Cisneros, the first-placed Democrat, leads Casas, the second Republican candidate, by just 9 points, or 24-15), but all of the other options are double-digits apart: Salas leads Mathys 30-19 (or by 11 points) in CA-22, and Min leads Ukropina 30-12 (by 28 points).

I believe so. My recollection on CA is that the early vote leans blue, it then gets more (relatively republican) however the last votes tend tend to be overwhelmly dem

This Primary was very different. Republicans voted in much higher Numbers. There is a reasonable chance Garvey will beat Schiff here.

[2016]

Keep in this in mind: There is such a thing in Politics that's called "Creating your own brand" and certainly Michelle Steel, Young Kim and Mike Garcia have done that. Kudos to them!

Also, John Duarte should be mentioned who leads Adam Gray by 10 Points the last time I checked.

Democrats had a terrible Night in California yesterday just like in 2022.

President Biden JA 50/49 among all CA Primary Voters.
Governor Newsom not a ton better with a 52/47 JA Rating. Maybe instead of blanketing Florida & Texas Billboards with Anti Pro-Life Ads and throwing tantrums + haymakers at Abbott, DeSantis & other GOP Governors he should focus on his own State first.

Newsoms 2028 Presidential Aspirations ended last Night.

The CNN Exits point to a narrow Garvey Win in the Open Senate Primary

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/exit-polls/california/senate-open-primary/0

It's a Non-Democratic Electorate. You add Independent + Republicans, they account for 57 % versus 43 % who described themselves as self-identified Democrats.

[2016]

Keep in this in mind: There is such a thing in Politics that's called "Creating your own brand" and certainly Michelle Steel, Young Kim and Mike Garcia have done that. Kudos to them!

Also, John Duarte should be mentioned who leads Adam Gray by 10 Points the last time I checked.

Democrats had a terrible Night in California yesterday just like in 2022.

President Biden JA 50/49 among all CA Primary Voters.
Governor Newsom not a ton better with a 52/47 JA Rating. Maybe instead of blanketing Florida & Texas Billboards with Anti Pro-Life Ads and throwing tantrums + haymakers at Abbott, DeSantis & other GOP Governors he should focus on his own State first.

Newsoms 2028 Presidential Aspirations ended last Night.

The CNN Exits point to a narrow Garvey Win in the Open Senate Primary

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/exit-polls/california/senate-open-primary/0

It's a Non-Democratic Electorate. You add Independent + Republicans, they account for 57 % versus 43 % who described themselves as self-identified Democrats.

There was a Republican presidential primary going on. This isn't representative of what the general election is going to look like in a presidential year at all.

Biden beat Trump in 2020 63-34 in CA YET Young Kim, Michelle Steel, David Valadao beat Democratic Incumbents + Mike Garcia hung on as well, go figure!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/california-results/
I doubt it will be too much worse in 2024.

There is a reason Governor Newsom may face a second Recall Effort. That's how bad he and his brand is in CA.

[2016]

Garvey is creeping back into Schiff. Per CA SoS Difference: 37,000 or 0.8 Percentage Points.

[2016]

Ken Calvert is now at 52 %. Most of the endanged Republican CA Congressional Members are increasing their lead.