2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Jens]

It seems that the CDU/CSU advantage over the SPD is starting to disappear:

New Emnid poll

CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 15%
Left: 12%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

I wonder what kind of coalition that could be formed after such a election result? Can't really call a CDU/SPD coalition for a Grand coalition if it only got 58 % behind it

[Jens]

Broadly agree. Though I would like to place an outside bet on CDU-Left being the only two-party combination with a theoretical majority in Saxony.

Now that would be the grand coalition of the century

[Jens]

What's going to happen in Thüringen? A grand coalition because SPD cannot accept to be junior partner in a Linke-led coalition?

[Jens]

My Wahlomat results:

1. Linke 78 of 88
2. Grüne 70 of 88
3. DKP 68 of 88
4. Piraten 56 of 88
5. SPD 55 of 88
6. NDP 55 of 88
7. FDP 37 of 88
8. CDU 21 of 88

[Jens]

The most interesting part of today's polls is the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, where the CDU (and therefore Black-Yellow) is literally imploding in the final weeks before the election. They once led the SPD by 14 points, which is now down to 5:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 27%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 12%
Left: 7%
SSW: 4%
Others: 4%

Red-Red-Green-Blue: 50% (35 seats)
Black-Yellow: 46% (34 seats)

Looks like SSV is going to hold the decisive votes again. I wonder if CDU-members once more is going to attack SSV's right to sit in the landstag?

[Jens]

Al-Qaeda's leadership may be hoping to repeat what happened in Spain's elections five years ago when multiple train bombings killed 191 people.

Soon afterwards, the Spanish government of Jose Maria Aznar, that had sent troops to Iraq, was defeated at the polls.

Wasn't Aznar's defeat more related to his attempt to blame ETA for the bombings against all evidence?