Who wins control?

[Free Bird]

Decided to reinstate this poll due to recent developments and such. Try not to be delusional when discussing. You can also discuss with how many seats!

[Free Bird]

Republicans

With exactly 6 seats I presume?

[Free Bird]

Democrats via the Tie-Breaking vote of Vice President Biden.

Explain seats.
I'm seeing WV, SD, MT, AR, IA, NC, and then LA in December flipping.

[Free Bird]

Republicans

With exactly 6 seats I presume?

Yes. The tipping point for me is Alaska, which no one thinks will go republican. Polls have consistently showed Begich ahead by no more than 5 points, and Alaska polling is usually proven afterward to underestimate republicans.

What are your overall pickup states

[Free Bird]

In my estimation, there won't be a net change:

Politely turn in your sanity badge if you think Montana will stay D

[Free Bird]

Have you seen a poll between Daines and Curtis?

Have you seen a poll between Daines and Walsh? So if a poll doesn't exist, it's D favored? Greeat. Look at the broader picture. This candidate has next to no experience, has virtually no time to campaign, is on the coattails of an unpopular president, and maintains the shameful flavor Walsh left, versus a man who had a huge lead over someone who is in shame now, and was the favorite to begin with. Get your head out of the gutter and look at the facts instead of bringing up nonexistent arguments that would further sink this horrible prediction.

[Free Bird]

Have you seen a poll between Daines and Curtis?

Because a lefty-liberal little known state senator is going to perform so much better in a poll than an appointed Lt. Governor incumbent who been in the race for months.

In a red state for that matter

[Free Bird]

Okay, I've changed my map so that everybody will be content...

Then there's Kentucky and Georgia... and Arkansas to an extent...

[Free Bird]

Democrats. Republicans will inevitably piss away 2-3 races they should otherwise win. Again.

Is that true objective thinking or a bias speaking when there is no evidence a candidate in this field would do that?

[Free Bird]

UpShot still being stupid with Iowa, I see

[Free Bird]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

[Free Bird]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

No, Colorado is having its 2010 four years later than the rest of the country.  Or, possibly, even a 1980-esque realignment, although it will be several years before that can be determined.  Gun control flipped Texas to the GOP, and it might have done it for Colorado, too.

The reality is that the red buttons in state politics are tax hikes and gun controls, and the Democrats hit both in the same year.  It shattered the illusion of  libertarian-y Democratic Party in the west that independents and squishy Republicans could get behind.  The last year has been about piecing together the whole thing and figuring out how it all goes, where old electoral alliances stand.  So far that has meant a firm rejection of Democratic ideas and candidates, and I suspect that that trend continues into November and beyond.

In this case, why do the polls look tied up (this race is really underpolled) and why is everyone on the forum convinced it's Udall? Then again never question the delusion of the users here xD

[Free Bird]

It is hard for me to conceive of a scenario in which Republicans do not take the Senate, unless the political winds start blowing pretty hard in the other direction.  

How do you see the Colorado Senate race?

Gardner will win for the same reason that I could see Tillis losing in North Carolina.  It is hard to overstate how unpopular Democrats have become in Colorado because of the president's unpopularity here and also because of the great overreach in the state legislature by local Democrats.  Since the 2012 landslide, and really for the first time in at least eight years, Republicans have been winning almost everything in the state--ballot initiatives, local races, and, of course, the recalls.  Not only have they been winning, but they've actually been winning by striking margins that literally no local politico has expected.   The anti-Democrat sentiment in the state will take an absolute toss-up race and give it a slight GOP advantage.  

In North Carolina the opposite dynamic could sink Tillis, especially given his leadership in the NC assembly, although Tillis' numbers are really bad and yet he is still at least even with Hagan.  If the legislature's unpopularity in the state hasn't sunk him by now, it likely won't before November and he'll win by a few points.

So Colorado is experiencing a state version of 1994?

No, Colorado is having its 2010 four years later than the rest of the country.  Or, possibly, even a 1980-esque realignment, although it will be several years before that can be determined.  Gun control flipped Texas to the GOP, and it might have done it for Colorado, too.

The reality is that the red buttons in state politics are tax hikes and gun controls, and the Democrats hit both in the same year.  It shattered the illusion of  libertarian-y Democratic Party in the west that independents and squishy Republicans could get behind.  The last year has been about piecing together the whole thing and figuring out how it all goes, where old electoral alliances stand.  So far that has meant a firm rejection of Democratic ideas and candidates, and I suspect that that trend continues into November and beyond.

In this case, why do the polls look tied up (this race is really underpolled) and why is everyone on the forum convinced it's Udall? Then again never question the delusion of the users here xD

1.) Because Colorado is a ferociously polarized state almost evenly divided between deeply conservative Republicans and increasingly liberal Democrats. 

2.) Because it is, after all, the forum.

In that case it's going to be a matter of turnout. If CO is dead even , then whoever gets polled just a tad more tips it. With Democrat enthusiasm down this year, I see reason to be optimistic.

[Free Bird]

The 52/48 split here shows that this forum is very left-leaning.  When virtually every forecaster is to the right of Atlas, it shows some bias here. 


The GOP nominated a pretty solid slate of candidates this year, and it seems tough to envision them not getting at least 5, and 6 seems like at least a 50/50 at this point, especially with Colorado's rapid GOP trend and McConnell's/Perdue's strength.

It's not that the forum itself is left leaning, there are just more Democrats. But people really do need to wake up here. There are basically 3 seats down, 2 locking up, and that only leaves 1 more, and withholding a Democrat blowout, which just isn't happening this year, is Bound to happen in one of the 4 with excellent candidates. It is simple logic

[Free Bird]

Democrats. Republicans will inevitably piss away 2-3 races they should otherwise win. Again.

Is that true objective thinking or a bias speaking when there is no evidence a candidate in this field would do that?

Not that Iowa was ever in the Republican camp, but Ernst likely fits the bill of the O'Donnell type who blows a potentially winnable race. Tillis is another subpar candidate who may piss away a winnable race.

Overall, though, I think you're right in that Republicans are finally cutting down on these situations.

I will forever say until Election Day that if Ernst wins, it's actually Braley losing

[Free Bird]

The Democratic party easily retains control.

Seriously, what the hell have you been smoking these past few months. Even if the Democratic party retains control, it won't be "easily".

[Free Bird]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Lol

But I predict the Democrats retain the Senate, from 50-50 to 52-48

Hey considering the map, it's possible

[Free Bird]

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website