Who wins control? (user search)
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  Who wins control? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who will win Senate control in November?
#1
Republicans
 
#2
Democrats
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 77

Author Topic: Who wins control?  (Read 4913 times)
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

« on: August 26, 2014, 09:30:46 AM »

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

From what I see at Upshot as of today, it looks like the GOP could conceivably win three safe pickups (MT/SD/WV), hold on to its two competitive seats (GA/KY), and win six of the seven Democrat-held competitive seats to pick up a total of nine seats. I think that's unlikely; a Republican net pick up of six or seven Senate seats is the most plausible outcome, but nine seats could happen on a good night for the GOP. The chance is low, but still there. So there isn't anyone making a clear prediction that the GOP will make a pickup of nine seats, but it's not completely ridiculous. After all, a lot could happen between now and November.
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Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2014, 09:54:18 AM »
« Edited: August 26, 2014, 09:57:27 AM by Never »

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

From what I see at Upshot as of today, it looks like the GOP could conceivably win three safe pickups (MT/SD/WV), hold on to its two competitive seats (GA/KY), and win six of the seven Democrat-held competitive seats to pick up a total of nine seats. I think that's unlikely; a Republican net pick up of six or seven Senate seats is the most plausible outcome, but nine seats could happen on a good night for the GOP. The chance is low, but still there. So there isn't anyone making a clear prediction that the GOP will make a pickup of nine seats, but it's not completely ridiculous. After all, a lot could happen between now and November.

They identify six Senate seats that the GOP has >50% chance of picking up.

I'm still waiting on the analysis that says that nine is a very real scenario.

There isn't an analysis showing that (I'm pretty sure I clarified this in my prior post), but with Sabato having the high end of Republican pickups at eight, it is not out of the question that we could see a more favorable Republican environment between now and November showing the upper range of Republican pickups at nine.
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2014, 10:14:44 AM »

Republicans gain 9 seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Alaska.

With Michigan, possibly a tenth, although I'm now leaning towards a Peters victory.

Whatever you're smoking, pass it, because IT HAS GOTTA BE GOOD.

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Sure. Let's see the analytical website with the clear prediction that the GOP will pick up nine seats.

From what I see at Upshot as of today, it looks like the GOP could conceivably win three safe pickups (MT/SD/WV), hold on to its two competitive seats (GA/KY), and win six of the seven Democrat-held competitive seats to pick up a total of nine seats. I think that's unlikely; a Republican net pick up of six or seven Senate seats is the most plausible outcome, but nine seats could happen on a good night for the GOP. The chance is low, but still there. So there isn't anyone making a clear prediction that the GOP will make a pickup of nine seats, but it's not completely ridiculous. After all, a lot could happen between now and November.

They identify six Senate seats that the GOP has >50% chance of picking up.

I'm still waiting on the analysis that says that nine is a very real scenario.

There isn't an analysis showing that (I'm pretty sure I clarified this in my prior post), but with Sabato having the high end of Republican pickups at eight, it is not out of the question that we could see a more favorable Republican environment between now and November showing the upper range of Republican pickups at nine.

Good. That's what I was getting at here. Because of this:

Want me to link you to most every other analytical website

Okay, we're on the same page about this. I'm an avid follower of the major predictions, and I haven't seen an analysis showing a Republican pick up that large so far this year.
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