Our prayers might be answered: Christie to decide on 2012 bid. (user search)
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  Our prayers might be answered: Christie to decide on 2012 bid. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Our prayers might be answered: Christie to decide on 2012 bid.  (Read 18991 times)
Wonkish1
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,203


« on: September 23, 2011, 05:50:29 PM »

I love how Dems think they know GOP primary voters so well.

Christie is instant front runner if he jumps in, mark my words.

Also, he spouts data and information at an amazing level. I wouldn't worry about him being knowledgeable when he enters his first debate. Both in what he already knows and his ability to assimilate information.

This of course, if he actually gets in.
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Wonkish1
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,203


« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2011, 06:04:32 PM »

I love how Dems think they know GOP primary voters so well.

Christie is instant front runner if he jumps in, mark my words.

Also, he spouts data and information at an amazing level. I wouldn't worry about him being knowledgeable when he enters his first debate. Both in what he already knows and his ability to assimilate information.

This of course, if he actually gets in.

Not many primary voters know much about him except he always sounds angry when he talks, and likes to go after unions and spending. If he runs, and if he develops a detailed platform, he may run into trouble.

I don't think you get how much of the primary electorate forms. About 1/3 of the primary electorate pays a lot of attention and know exactly who Christie is. When he enters he takes over all of the headlines and chatter. Another 1/3 of the primary electorate asks the first 1/3 what they think of him. This 'asking the knowledgeable activist you know' is well documented and is widespread.

Those 2 groups will shoot Christie to the front real quickly. Exactly the same thing that happened to Perry when he jumped in. Then it moves to the debates and unlike Perry, Christie is one of the most articulate, methodical, and intelligent speakers out there.

So again he would be the front runner very quickly.
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Wonkish1
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,203


« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2011, 02:09:26 AM »

Actually Mr. Moderate you're quite right. Our primary system is very momentum based. Big news drives the next primary battle.

If someone entered after New Hampshire for example, its conceivable that would eclipse the news of the winner of New Hampshire.

Similar to how Perry's entrance on the same day as the Ames Straw poll eclipsed the winner of the straw poll.

Now I'm just bouncing this around my head, I do realize there could be at least 100 holes in this theory.
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