The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[henster]

Sadly Moore and Shapiro are coming in at the wrong moment. Way too green for Presidential runs in '24 or even as a VP pick. By the time their time comes in 2028 they'll either be trying to keep the WH after 8 years of Biden, beating an incumbent DeSantis or winning an open seat after Trump(best case). Of course either of them could turn out to be unpopular or lose reelection before then.

[henster]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

Biden already said he's going to run, or intends to run. Should his deteriorate, Harris would absolutely run. She'd start out as the frontrunner for the nomination. Might not be the homerun she hopes for, though her winning the nomination then is still way more likely than not. So the chance neither of these two is on the ticket is marginal.

I think regardless what he has said- most ppl think he will not end up running. I never said Harris will not run- I said she will not get the nomination. (I think most ppl agree that she would not win the nomination).  Just look at current polling:

Harris is in a distant 7th place in 2024 NH Polling, which is the post recent 2024 Dem poll (she's only 1 pt above AOC).  Practically no one that I am aware of, thinks Harris would start off as the front runner if Biden doesn't run (even though in most cases the VP would be the front runner).

She gained no traction in the last Dem Presidential Primary- and her approval numbers have gone lower since then.

I'm not saying this is reflective of my personal opinion on Harris (I actually do not really have an opinion right now)... but I think this is objectively the general consensus currently regarding her prospects.  Regarding Biden- I do not think he should run for re-election, mainly due to age... which I think is definitely a majority opinion among Dems currently.

I think if GOP wins the Senate with like 52-53 seats then there’d be intense pressure from a lot in the party to step aside. You know how Dems panic, I could see some Senators openly calling for him not to run. Of course then the question arises as to wether they’d rather take their bets with Kamala or rally behind some consensus candidate.

[henster]

I wonder if Biden opts against running if it becomes apparent DeSantis beats Trump in the primaries. I could see him itching for a rematch against Trump but does he really want to run against someone half his age? But could be wishful thinking.

[henster]

I like Suarez, but he surely knows he can't win. I assume this is probably a brand-building campaign that he can try to leverage into a run for Governor down the road.

That or a cabinet position.

Hey, it worked out for Buttigieg. He got a cabinet position and two best selling books out of his run and his city was four times smaller than Miami. Of course Suarez is way less impressive than Pete was at least for the set of voters he needs.