Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Lula has so far won in New Zealand, Australia, China, South Korea, Singapore…

Bolsonaro has predictably won Japan only, but since it has a bigger electorate than all those others, the final balance is still positive for Bolsonaro. But his margin from 2018 diminished there as well.

The final exterior vote could be close if all of Europe goes with Lula to compensate for the US numbers inevitably going for Bolsonaro. Although like Japan, I bet his margin in US will somewhat diminish in comparison to 2018.

ETA: Apparently Bolsonaro has also won in Israel, while Lula won in Palestine.

Do you have links to these results?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

What is the best site to follow the results, ideally with a NYTimes style map if it's not too much to ask?

Can Lula realistically win in first round?

1. I believe Globo has a good interactive map
2. Yes, it appears that support for other candidates has collapsed in the last week, so Lula could conceivably win in the 1st round, even if Bolsonaro's support is closer to the mid 40s than 40%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

With gathering economic storms in the world which could mean a sharp fall in international prices for raw materials the Lula takeover will be poor timing.  The fact that Lula polls much higher than other Center-left candidates in 2018 and 2022 shows part of his appeal are the memories of the economic glory days of 2002-2010 when the overall world economic environment was fairly positive for Brazil.  It seems unlikely that his new term will be so positive.

While I agree with you, I think it's basically foolish to predict the trajectory of commodity prices over a time horizon that's longer than 2 years. It's worth remembering that ~18 months ago that most traders were extremely bullish about industrial metals. I am probably about as "bearish" as they come about industrial metals now but I have no idea where we'll stand in 2025.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

How Brasilia voted in 2018:
1st round: Bolsonaro 58.4%, Ciro 16.6%, Haddad 11.9%
2nd round: Bolsonaro 70%, Haddad 30%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think it's very important to zoom-out from the number-crunching and campaign minutiae when discussing the 1st round results:

• Some eight years ago, Dilma's government engaged in extremely stupid heterodox meddling in central bank operations right around the time that commodity prices fell off of a cliff. Brazil's economy suffered a massive increase in unemployment and a burst of inflation. It has yet to recover from this severe recession. People continue to talk about "nostalgia" for Lula's presidency but this period is remembered by far more voters and it will tend to be attributed to...the PT and even Lula.
• Subsequently, Dilma Rousseff was impeached from office on trumped-up charges that anyone reasonable would view as being a soft "coup d'etat". There, was quite literally, an orchestrated campaign against her and those behind the campaign imposed radical constitutional reforms, and austerity on Brazil.
• Shortly after this, Lula was barred from running for President and imprisoned as part of an orchestrated campaign to throw the election towards the right. He was released from prison three years ago.
• In the election that Lula was barred from running in, the left was reduced to a rump and Haddad was crushed by over a ten point margin against a candidate widely despised by Brazilians. Just about anyone else would have made the election close, Ciro Gomes could have defeated Bolsonaro.
• Two years ago, it was considered a "good performance" that Boulos lost Sao Paulo mayoral election by 20 points and that Manuela d'Avila lost by 10 points in Porto Alegre. This, more or less, was a repeat of Haddad's disastrous performance. Lula won both cities by 10 points tonight.

Lula and, by extension, PT, PSOL and associated allies have risen from the dead to remain the only relevant opposition to fascist-flavored right-wing populism in Brazil. Lula was in prison. He will probably be President. Anyone who fails to see this as one of history's great comebacks is far too focused on the present, cannot see the big picture.

The one caveat to keep in mind is that if Lula was allowed to run in 2018, all of this could have been avoided. He probably would have crushed Bolsonaro, albeit not to the extent that polls predicted. He probably would have been lauded for his response to the pandemic simply because he wouldn't have implied that people dying of COVID are congenital weaklings deserving of such a fate. He then would have likely sailed to an easy re-election, in spite of all of the recent turbulence in the world. The main actors in Brazil responsible for this nightmare are Sergio Moro and elements in the judiciary that are crooked and vile. Bolsonaro is horrible, yes, but he was enabled by them and likely couldn't have become President without them...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think it's very important to zoom-out from the number-crunching and campaign minutiae when discussing the 1st round results:

• Some eight years ago, Dilma's government engaged in extremely stupid heterodox meddling in central bank operations right around the time that commodity prices fell off of a cliff. Brazil's economy suffered a massive increase in unemployment and a burst of inflation. It has yet to recover from this severe recession. People continue to talk about "nostalgia" for Lula's presidency but this period is remembered by far more voters and it will tend to be attributed to...the PT and even Lula.
• Subsequently, Dilma Rousseff was impeached from office on trumped-up charges that anyone reasonable would view as being a soft "coup d'etat". There, was quite literally, an orchestrated campaign against her and those behind the campaign imposed radical constitutional reforms, and austerity on Brazil.
• Shortly after this, Lula was barred from running for President and imprisoned as part of an orchestrated campaign to throw the election towards the right. He was released from prison three years ago.
• In the election that Lula was barred from running in, the left was reduced to a rump and Haddad was crushed by over a ten point margin against a candidate widely despised by Brazilians. Just about anyone else would have made the election close, Ciro Gomes could have defeated Bolsonaro.
• Two years ago, it was considered a "good performance" that Boulos lost Sao Paulo mayoral election by 20 points and that Manuela d'Avila lost by 10 points in Porto Alegre. This, more or less, was a repeat of Haddad's disastrous performance. Lula won both cities by 10 points tonight.

Lula and, by extension, PT, PSOL and associated allies have risen from the dead to remain the only relevant opposition to fascist-flavored right-wing populism in Brazil. Lula was in prison. He will probably be President. Anyone who fails to see this as one of history's great comebacks is far too focused on the present, cannot see the big picture.

The one caveat to keep in mind is that if Lula was allowed to run in 2018, all of this could have been avoided. He probably would have crushed Bolsonaro, albeit not to the extent that polls predicted. He probably would have been lauded for his response to the pandemic simply because he wouldn't have implied that people dying of COVID are congenital weaklings deserving of such a fate. He then would have likely sailed to an easy re-election, in spite of all of the recent turbulence in the world. The main actors in Brazil responsible for this nightmare are Sergio Moro and elements in the judiciary that are crooked and vile. Bolsonaro is horrible, yes, but he was enabled by them and likely couldn't have become President without them...

Why did Haddad perform so badly in 2018 relative to any other potential candidate?

It's more that Lula is a very strong candidate than Haddad having been a weak one; if anything when you consider how much Dilma had become reviled Haddad actually performed quite strongly. DFB's point that Brazilian politics has polarized into a battle between PT-ism and Bolsonarismo, and so Lula (and his party) are the only real opposition, is true and was already substantially true by 2018.

This was not inevitable after Bolsonaro won though. Throughout 2020, there was talk about "Huck" and other alternatives to Bolsonaro. Many state governors provided foils to Bolsonaro. Lula's entry into the race probably foreclosed upon this. In the end, I suspect that Bolsonaro would win against anyone but Lula because he could probably juice Nordeste with bribes and the non-Lula, anti-Bolsonaro candidate may well have even lost Pernambuco. Of course, we'll never know but I think it's instructive that the right is capable of doing okay in, say, Bahia if Lula isn't a candidate...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'd like more feedback from the Brazilians here but my impression of Rio is that, historically, it was a "red" city and that this persisted until rather recently. The first danger sign could be seen when Dilma performed miserably in the 1st round in 2014 due to Marina Silva's strong performance, which was driven in large part by Pentecostals supporting here.

Are the poor in Rio unusually Pentecostal? In my view, that could explain Rio's extreme shifts in a parsimonious manner but, of course, it does not explain everything because Pentecostals in Bahia or Pernambuco still vote for PT candidates at reasonably high rates.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'd like to provide another interpretation of the evolution of Brazilian politics over the last few decades. One irony of the Lula/Dilma years is that despite Dilma's dalliance with heterodox economic ideas, they never governed as radicals, but still suffered an extreme class-based reactionary backlash that, for instance, was seen in Chile in the 1970s. I think there are some notable parallels but also some obvious differences. The parallels would be as follows:

• Christian Democrats in Chile can be seen as stand-ins for PSDB in some ways: a clearly non-socialist party that expanded the welfare state and that was not particularly hostile to labor, very democratic party. Did they even merit being labeled as "center-right"? In my view, no, not at all - they are probably properly seen as "centrist". I think all of this applies to PSDB tbh so long as we strip Catholicism out.
• Similar to PSDB, the Christian Democrats were radicalized by Allende's government, albeit in a very compressed time-frame and under radically different conditions. They supported radical measures to remove Allende from power, including a massive lock-out.
• Christian Democrats in Chile were effectively banned by Pinochet and became a de-facto left-aligned force after the dictatorship. In my view, they are de-facto submerged under descendants of socialists in Chile.
• PSDB has been destroyed and, in many ways, remaining voters appear to be more sympathetic to PT than anything aligned with Bolsonaro. To give an example, there are many Lula/PSDB voters in Sao Paulo. I suspect PSDB voters in Sao Paulo itself will flow towards Haddad more than the right-wing candidate but we'll see.

The tragedy of Brazilian politics is that, unlike in Chile, the radicalization of the right was basically without merit, an unwarranted reaction to a government that would have been trounced in 2018 if Dilma had simply been allowed to flail around for a few more years. Dilma was not seeking a rupture with capitalism nor was she allowing a social revolution to unfold, as was the case in Chile. My view is that the status quo that had existed in, say, 2013 was working just fine, albeit with some bad economic management and an overabundance of corruption. All that was needed was a kind of corrective from a normal PSDB President. Instead, the middle classes and elites erupted in an extreme backlash, basically throwing a temper-tantrum, replacing Dilma with a criminal and then electing a clown...

Obvious note: no, I do not think Allende's presidency warranted a literal coup or military dictatorship but I do think that his government was inviting such a reaction and that the extreme polarization that happened was inevitable given the decision-making of his government. We can say the same thing about the constitutional crisis in Chile, which seeks to implement a social revolution through law (very disturbing to see actually). PT never played with fire like this, they were basically responsible, conciliatory and their reward was facing imprisonment...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1577678646319489027

Lula was President of Brazil for 8 years and Brazil was arguably at its most prosperous when he was President - who would believe this BS?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Rocinha is one of the most left-wing parts of Rio and it's notorious favela. I'm under the impression that isn't particularly impoverished these days - frankly, seems like a great place to be a "bobo"? - but neither is it "middle class".

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities

I don't understand this, wouldn't civil servants be heavily overrepresented in that demographic ?

Quite! This is what seems peculiar and could do with an explanation.

As I have been told, civil servants/public employees in Brazil are left-leaning and tend to have liberal sensibilities but, surprisingly, Brasilia isn't a monolithic hub of public employees and has assorted lobbying types plus a banking industry etc. Anecdotally, I do not have the sense that higher-ranking civil servants are particularly left-wing though, even if they are somewhat liberal, so they may have voted for Bolsonaro in 2018, even if they likely did not this year.