Argentina Legislative Elections, November 14

[FredLindq]

Here is my predictions, mainly based on opinion polls in Clarin and at Wikipedia and on the provincial elections results earlier this year in some states.

In the senate elections 24 of 72 seats of grabs I think that Juntos will win 15. The will win I seven out of eight provinces, and will come second in one (Catamarca). FDT will have 8. The will win Catamrca and will be second in every other province without Cordoba. In Cordoba HPC will be second and win one seat.

So for the senate:
Juntos 15
FDT 8
HPC 1

In total this will lead to:
FDT 34
FDT allies (Misiones) 1
Juntos 32
Parlamentario Federal 4
 (Federal Peronists in Salta, Nequen, Corodoba and La Rioja)
Juntos Somos Río Negro    1
Total 72

Majority 37
So the Federal Peronists will be kingmakers here.

For the chamber of deputies, I think it will be:
Juntos 60
FDT 49
AL  4 (2 each in BA and the capital)
Vamos 3 (In BA)
HPC 3 (Cordoba)
FRC 2 (Misiones)
FAP 2 (Santa Fe)
FIT 1 (BA)
JSRN 1 (Río Negro)
MPN 1 (Nequen)
UPS 1 (Salta)

In total:
FDT 117
Juntos 115
Federal 12
(Federal Peronists like Vamos ex Conenso Federal and HPC i.e Cordoba Federal as well as som socialist from Santa Fe.)
Unidad Federal para el Desarrollo 5  Allied to FDT
(FRC from Misiones, JSRN as well as some other leftists)
AL 4
FIT 1
UPS 1
MPN 1
Argetina Federal 1 (Dissidents from Juntos)
In total 257

Majority 129
So the Federal Peronists will be kingmakers also in the chamber of deputies

[FredLindq]

In the senate elections 24 of 72 seats of grabs I think that Juntos will win 15. The will win I seven out of eight provinces, and will come second in one (Catamarca). FDT will have 8. The will win Catamrca and will be second in every other province without Cordoba. In Cordoba HPC will be second and win one seat.

So for the senate:
Juntos 15
FDT 8
HPC 1

In total this will lead to:
FDT 34
FDT allies (Misiones) 1
Juntos 32
Parlamentario Federal 4
 (Federal Peronists in Salta, Nequen, Corodoba and La Rioja)
Juntos Somos Río Negro    1
Total 72

Majority 37
So the Federal Peronists will be kingmakers here.


My prognosis were quite right. Right now it looks like the results would be:
For the senate:
Juntos 14
FDT 9
HPC 1

[FredLindq]

Here is my predictions, mainly based on opinion polls in Clarin and at Wikipedia and on the provincial elections results earlier this year in some states.


For the chamber of deputies, I think it will be:
Juntos 60
FDT 49
AL  4 (2 each in BA and the capital)
Vamos 3 (In BA)
HPC 3 (Cordoba)
FRC 2 (Misiones)
FAP 2 (Santa Fe)
FIT 1 (BA)
JSRN 1 (Río Negro)
MPN 1 (Nequen)
UPS 1 (Salta)

My predictions here were very accurate as well. The results:
Juntos 61
FDT 48
AL  4
FIT 4
HPC 3 (Cordoba)
MPN 2 (Nequen)
FRC 1 (Misiones)
FAP 1 (Santa Fe)
Vamos 1
JSRN 1 (Río Negro)
SEPRSC 1 (Santa Cruz)